Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by Round

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Round when Player was Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Two factors are important when evaluating a teams drafting history in terms of the Draft Round in which the draftee was picked. Those factors are: 1) the quality of player and 2) which round they were drafted in. Players drafted in the 1st round should become 'stars' while players drafted in the 9th round are true longshots.

i.e. a 'star' player drafted in the 5th round is worth more than if that same 'star' player was drafted in the 1st round.

This also affects the negative scores of unranked players drafted early; let's face it - screwing up a 2nd round pick, on which the organization has spent considerable scouting resources, is worse than screwing up a 12th round throw-away pick.

Ex: An additional modifier of -60 was added to all unranked players (total is -90 in the 1st round) and then added back at 10/round until the total modifier was +/- 0 (the 7th round).

The modifiers allowed for the actual results of each draft round to be measured against the reasonable expectation of each round. Thus, drafting Enstrom and Exelby in the 8th round results in that round generating a positive grade for the organization.

The following table assigns a grade to each draft round:


The analysis by ROUND serves to hi-light two other problems the Atlanta Thrashers have had: a) when only the 1st round picks are covering the bet then they ALL have to be star caliber players and b) expansion teams don't have the luxury of having years worth of slowly developing journeyman caliber prospect/players making their way onto the roster.

Think about those two points for a second.

On the first, it doesn't require a huge leap of faith to see where the pressure, for the 1st round picks to develop into 'star' players as quickly as possible, is one of the reasons why Coburn will spend the next 15 years in a Flyers uniform and not that of the Thrashers.

On the second, the lack of homegrown roleplayers is why players like Holik and White get contracts at all.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by Pick

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Draft Pick Used

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.


Two factors are important when evaluating a teams drafting history in terms of the Draft Pick used to secure the prospect. Those factors are: 1) the quality of player and 2) which pick was used. Players drafted 1st overall should become 'stars' (if not superstars) while players drafted, say, 209th are true longshots.

i.e. a 'star' player drafted 210th overall is worth more than if that same 'star' player was drafted 15th overall.

This also affects the negative scores of unranked players drafted early; let's face it - screwing up a top-10 pick, on which the organization has spent considerable scouting resources, is worse than screwing up a 244th throw-away pick.

Note that this chart is closely related to the study that looks at Results by Round when Player was Drafted. Very closely related. Given that the principle is roughly the same (don't screw up early draft picks) I even used the same wording for some sections.

Note: I have not yet come up with a decent formula to use for the purposes of handing out grading scores (as done elsewhere).

All this study really does it confirm what we should already know - if the Atlanta Thrashers are picking in the top 2 spots the odds are good that they will get a decent player. Yay team. Stefan is the lone 'miss' and even then, it is hard to blame the team given the dip in quality that draft year.

The study also confirms that between picks 30 through 211 (roughly rounds 2 through 7) the team has generated some god-awful results. If Darcy Hordichuk is the best you can get, out of some 61 draft picks over 10 years, you have issues that need to be addressed sooner rather than later.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by Age

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Age of Player when Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.


At issue here is the ability to isolate 'age' as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to: 1) modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single age category entirely, and 2) modify the calculation to recognize that projecting the capability of an 18 year old player is harder than projecting the capability of a 22 year old player.

There is no issue with the fact that trying to gauge the long-term ability of an 18 year old kid is a difficult task. A 30 year old man, however, should be more of a known quantity and a player like that should only be drafted if the team has a reasonable assurance that the player in question can fill the role required. After all, anyone over the age of 24 that gets drafted by an NHL team is already playing pro-level hockey.

I will not go into detail on the math. Suffice to say that first the player-grade scores were flattened out and then, as a second step, a modifier was put in that added to the global score for each category of players younger than 23 and subtracted from the global score for each category of players older than 23. The modifier increases the further away from 23 you go. The grades are organized and summarized below:


Please note the percentile score in the second column on the left side of the main chart. It is derived from the sum of all players who have a player-grade D or higher AND all prospects that are ranked (star / solid / borderline).

Four things we can draw from this part of the study: a) drafting 18 year old kids is a crapshoot no matter the team, b) the team has had some success drafting 19 year olds, c) that success does not carry forward to the 20 year old category and d) the scouts seem to have an aversion to drafting overagers.

While the sample set is small, and the overall scoring value is a negative (-75), the team's results when drafting 19 year olds are pretty good. That percentile score of 34% is not a mirage. The future play of Enstrom and Little should serve to increase the scoring in this category and if any of Bourret, Lewis or Machacek turn out it only gets better.

Of interest is the lack of overage draftees. Given the team's drive to be competitive quickly** I would have expected to see far more players, age 22 or older, drafted with late round picks. Like the Lehtonen draft pick, this piece of information stands out as an indicator of a mistake having been made in the build of the team via the draft.

** Editor's premise: Heatley and Kovalchuk developed into impact players very, very quickly. The moment that happened the slow build should have been off the table as a viable team building strategy. The team did not draft a single overage player (and only four 20 year olds) after 2002 - that points to a disconnect between the team's draft build strategy and real time requirements.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by Position

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Position Played when Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.


At issue here is the ability to isolate 'position-played' as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'position' category entirely. Since all positions will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below. Please note that some 5 players are listed as having no designated playing position. That is not entirely true. Those 5 players are actually identified as 'Forwards' on their player-profiles. Lacking better information I was forced to leave them as non-designated for purposes of this study.



Note the percentile scores in the second column on the left-hand side of the table. Those scores are generated in a fashion similar to that of the previous study on player-age. The 5 non-designated players could represent a signifigant variable IF all of them played the same position. I expect that is not the case and so I am not too worried about it.

I cannot see anything of real import in these results. I can tell you that the team doesn't seem to have much luck drafting defensemen but I cannot tell you why. Coburn and Enstrom will, after time has passed, juice the score a bit but not enough to turn it around. This is the kind of thing that you hope a management team takes notice of, focuses on... and then fixes. Good luck with that.

And yes, LW seems to be a legit competency.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by League

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Development League when Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.


At issue here is the ability to isolate the players initial development league as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'league' category entirely. Since all leagues will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below. Please remember that the league listed by the player is the league from which they were drafted. That player may have developed in several leagues over the course of their junior career but when they were drafted they belonged to a single team or league and that is what is listed (and therefore part of this study).


Two things to pull from this part of the study: a) the team seems to have a decent scouting system in place for both the European leagues and the U.S. college system, and b) the team has not enjoyed any overwhelming success OR failure out of any of the different development leagues.

Those are, actually, good results. They indicate that basic competencies are in place and that the scouting staff doesn't show undue favortism to any one league REGARDLESS of results.

This is important.

In an earlier work I completed on the Edmonton Oilers it was clear that, for over 20 years, the scouting staff of the Oilers had a) deficiencies in its scouting system in Europe (few Russians or Swedes) and b) a bias towards U.S. College players outside of the results delivered. Of all the issues the Thrashers have - unrewarded bias is not one of them.

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The abbreviations used above are as follows:

The USHS category also contains those players drafted out of the USHL program.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - by Country

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Birth/Origin Country of Draftee

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.


At issue here is the ability to isolate the players nation of origin as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'nation' category entirely. Since all nations will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below. Please remember that the nation listed is the nation that they were born in and not the nation where they learned to play hockey (Danny Heatley from Germany for example). As most players did the majority of their development, as hockey players, in the country of their birth it is an issue to be aware of and not a fatal flaw in the study itself.


The Obvious: The Thrashers have not had great success out of Canada. This correlates to the previous study on results by LEAGUE where we find the team has not done well out of the junior leagues of Canada. This is both odd and unexpected. Given that the majority of players in the NHL come from Canada it does not bode well for a team's future if it struggles to identify and draft good Canadian talent.

The Possible?: The sample sizes are fairly small so Heatley and Kovalchuk obviously skew the results for Germany and Russia respectively. That said, the team does appear to have an active, and probably competent, scouting department in Europe (the Czech Republic and Finland are early hot spots).

The Opportunity: To this untrained eye it seems that the team should be looking hard at upgrading it's North American scouting program. The trick will be to make sure that they do NOT impair the European results while doing so.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers

v.2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 2004 - 2008

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

2004

Valabik was chosen at a time where every team had to have their very own version of Zdeno Chara. Valabik has just started getting in some games with the Thrashers and it remains to be seen if he will have any lasting, positive effect on the roster. Lewis remains a work in progress as well. It is a little early to write everyone else off but, by the same token, it is a little late to have to be finding something worthwhile to write about.

2005

That Pavelec may be the goalie of the future, even while Lehtonen is the current #1 tender, is a little disconcerting given Pavelec was only drafted 3 years after Lehtonen. Bourret is on his last chances while LaVallee sounds like he may actually start getting chances. Truth is, there are a lot of borderline-but-not-quite-there prospects in the Thrashers system, so I gave LaVallee the nod given he is one of the best of that group.

2006

Little has a lot riding on his shoulders this year. A good young player he will be called upon to a) support Kovalchuk's 1st line play, b) solidify the 2nd line or c) anchor the 3rd line - no pressure. Holzpfel, like LaVallee before him, got the nod as the best of an average lot. There may be some surprises coming out of the rest of this group but I won't hold my breath.

2007

Atlanta paid a, phenomenally, high price for a run at the play-offs. Those costs are reflected here (and in Philadelphia). If that price had been paid for a solid run at the Stanley Cup maybe I would be understanding of it. But that is not the case. These kind of drafts kill the future performance of teams with as few NHL quality players as Atlanta has. They might have found a keeper in Machacek but if not - this will hurt.

2008

Bogosian is the real deal by all accounts and maybe, having had their run in the play-offs, Thrashers management will actually keep Cobu… errr… Bogosian for the long term. Leveille is an interesting prospect but he doesn't approach the 'probable' threshold that would make him a 'solid' prospect and everyone else still has that new baby smell so no other comments can be reasonably made.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003

Atlanta Thrashers

v.2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1999 - 2003

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1999

Stefan was a decent pick made in a poor draft year (one of the worst drafts of the last 20 years); in most other draft years he doesn't crack the top-4. Exelby made the show (almost 300 games) but hasn't made an impact in it and will probably top out as a bottom pairing defenseman. A whack of others got cups of coffee but, for an expansion team, that is exactly what we would expect to see. Passing grades don't cut it however when miracles are what's needed.

2000

Heatley has been everything advertised. Everything Stefan maybe should have been. Circumstance has Heatley in Ottawa now and he should continue to do well for many years to come. Hordichuk is a hard-working cruiser-weight who made the most of his chances while Gamache had enough speed to get a look-see. It is notable, that of 14 picks made, most didn't even get a cup of coffee - team depth took a step backwards this draft.

2001

Kovalchuk will be a dominant LW in the NHL for many, many years to come. Atlanta made the right pick again. Nurminen put in some yeoman type work while with the Thrashers but a knee injury would eventually end his career. Garnett has gotten in some call-up back-up duty while Stuart may have just stared his career in the NHL (2008-09 is a big year for him). Like in 2000 however, the team had trouble once the obvious pick was made.

2002

Lehtonen has had some fragile years and so it remains to be seen how much impact he will have on the team. He has skills and Atlanta needs him to start having career years. Every year. Slater was projected to be a safe 3rd line 'type' pick when made and that is exactly what he has turned out to be. The pattern continues - none of the other draftees has done anything of anything in the NHL.

2003

Coburn took a while to get going but seems to have hit his stride. In Philadelphia. Sterling looks to be ready to make the most of his shot and Enstrom has been one of the few bright spots the team has going forward. Given the lack of quality depth on this team's roster it would not be surprising to see some of the unranked prospects get a cup of coffee sometime in the next few years.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Sweet Read

Very, very nice post on Admiral Pellew and Matt Greene over at Copper and Blue. Dreadnaught Foster and Metternich make an appearance in the comments and overall it was a hella a fun read. If Fozzy Bear had shown up I would have had to shut down my computer and go have a shot of El Patron Anejo just to clear my head.

My thanks to all contributing writers.

As a quick aside, and so this post has some hockey content, I see the Kings as being one of the favored teams in both the Kovalchuk and the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.

That is all.

Now where is my tequila.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL UFA Season - 2008

This post will serve as the portal to the rest of my posts on the 2008 UFA off-season. Specifically that part of the off-season which starts July 1st - the day players with expiring contracts are free to sign with any team they wish as they are newly classified as being an Unrestricted Free Agent.

The first two days were fast and furious. The next few... not so much. All par-for-the-course kind of stuff. Dollars went big, years went long, common sense went missing and one big market team gave everyone the finger.

The hi-light for me was the signing of Kurt Sauer by the Phoenix Coyotes. It warms my heart no end when I see a team make a signing that is as intelligent as that one was. Just a smart, smart move on the part of Maloney. He makes more of those and Phoenix is a contender sooner, not later.

The low-light? As of today, July 10, I see that guys like Vasicek, Tjarnqvist, Malik and Dallman remain unsigned. Given that:

-- the entire set could be signed for ~ $6 mill /yr (my number) and
-- they all handily outperformed their opposites

I continue to wonder why some GM's continue to draw paycheques. Smart signings are better than flashy signings.

Anyways.

Links to the different posts, in order, are here:

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - First Look

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - The List

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - The Cull

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - Snapshots

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - Worst & Best


Last Notes

1. Detroit Red Wings - they did phenomenally well. Everyone's Cup favorite. And they deserve the distinction.

2. New York Rangers - barring an amazing year from Lundqvist, or a phenomenal jump forward by Staal, the Rangers should be a mess this year. Their roster of defensemen is completely unbalanced and the player turnover was what one would expect from a team rebuilding; not a contender.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins - the team's future will be killed by a lack of depth. It just will. The only way this team wins a Cup is if Shero can pull a Patrick and pick up a Samuelsson/Francis combo. I nominate Orpik and Stall to go the other way.

4. Edmonton Oilers - quite happy we missed on Hossa. I am thrilled that when it comes to big name UFA's Lowe has a losing record. We do not need more salary anchors. Also - welcome to Jason Strudwick. Now THAT is a signing.

I hope you enjoy the reads.

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Have a great evening everyone.

A (Late) Introduction of Sorts

As some of you may know, even when I don't make a post for months I do still update this site. Typically this will come in the form of:

-- posts-still-in-production (drafts)
-- updates to an archive post
-- corrections (typically spelling) to older posts and
-- added links in the sidebars

The site is rarely, completely dead. Comatose perhaps, but rarely dead.

In such a way, over the last year, I added site links to Copper & Blue, PunjabiOil, Coming Down The Pipe, Copper Blue Dreams, Oilers Nation, The Cult Of Hockey, Hockey Reference.com, NHLSCAP and now, The Real Deal Hockey. There will be more I am sure.

I also added the archive sections to the blog.

The Quick Reference Archive links will take you to where I have posted information that I either:

a) access frequently or
b) got tired of looking up the hard way.

They are updated or added to as needed.

The Posting Archive links will take you to, what I call, 'portal' posts. A 'portal' post is where I stitch together (via link) a series of articles (posts) revolving around a single theme.

Of all the posts made on this site the one you may not want to miss is the one titled:

Edmonton Oilers HRDR v.2007

It is accessed through the Portal Archive. The full title would be:

Edmonton oilers: A Historical Review of Draft Results v.2007

Hence the 'HRDR' in the link. If you are attentive to quirks and vanities you will find that I tend to shorten listings/bullets to a single line. Looks messy otherwise (imo) and my writing style is sloppy enough as it is.

Also, you may note that I tag each article with a 'Have a great evening everyone'. First post I wrote was on the cusp of the evening hours and so, well, it stuck. Being a grumpy old white man I can only cross my arms in front of my chest, scowl, harrumf and say "Change is bad".

In case you are wondering: why now? Simple, it is so I can link to this post in the Posting Archive and maybe, by doing so, I can help new readers navigate the site. Finally, YKOil, is from Yellowknife Oilers fan.

I hope your visit here is enjoyable, and if fortune would have it, maybe even productive.

Thanks for dropping by.

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Have a great evening everyone.

A Musing

As happened on The Team 1260, reported on by TSN, Brownlee and Staples, noted by Lowetide and blow-by-blow summarized by Copper & Blue - Kevin Lowe finally blasted back at Brian Burke.

Good on 'em.

I don't think he should have bystander'd the city of Anaheim and Bobby Ryan but those are just minor quibbles on my part. Overall it was a masterfull showing by a guy who finally decided to take his jacket off and fight back.

Forgive if I am wrong but I get the impression that Katz said something, as a friend might, along the lines of: "Kevin... why don't you just tell him to fuck-off?"

Burke forgot (imo), a long time ago, a rule of thumb that trends along this line:

When you guessed and got lucky, and everyone knows it, don't pretend otherwise.

(Of course, one of the hidden joys to that rule is the one nested within: If no one knows, bluff.)

Everyone knows Burkie. Everyone knows.

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That brings me to the topic I was actually going to write on tonight:

Alexei Zhitnik

Bounced out of Atlanta, Zhitnik is not (imo) a failed player and his Desjardins numbers are actually quite good given the team he played on. He is at the point in his career where he should be a complement to another player - not treated as if he should be anchoring a top defensive pairing.

Waddell made a bad trade regardless; Coburn taking a giant stride forward just made it obvious.

Some team should take a chance on Zhitnik. I say here they will do quite well if they pair him up properly and don't ask for miracles.

Well enough, perhaps... that the team that signs him could, perhaps... trade him at the deadline for, lets say... an elite, yet struggling, defensive prospect from, just maybe... a team that has a GM entering panic mode?

Everyone knows Waddell. Everyone knows.

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Have a great evening everyone.

A 2008 RFA Moment

As brought to you in a way that only the Vancouver Canucks can.

I think Backes is an okay player, and maybe making him an RFA offer is a workable idea, but what was Gillis thinking?

The Canucks are in for a world of hurt with this guy.

THE RULES

Look. If you are going to make an RFA offer there are several rules (admittedly mine) to follow:

1. Maximize your timing.

This means you don't make the offer when the other team:

.a. is flush with cash (the most important factor);
.b. has lots of time to think about it;
.c. is already committed to that player in their roster build

2. Maximize your opponents opportunity to make a mistake.

This means you offer an amount that minimizes your loss while maximizing their requirement to agonize over the decision. Please read my post on the Penner signing - for some it will be new and for others it will be a refresher.

This also involves waiting for the opposing team to pass certain deadlines... like the filing for arbitration deadline lets say. Just to say of course.

3. Maximize the value of your decision.

If the player you are targeting is a player you would trade 'x' draft picks for then your offer should be as close to that, in terms of RFA compensation, as you can get without crossing into a higher cost bracket.

If the player you are targeting is on a team that is vulnerable (see also #1 above) then pitch an underpriced bid, but don't kid yourself, once you do that you aren't looking to make an acquisition - you are looking to cause pain.

The difference in those two positions is important.

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NOT GOOD

Gillis broke all the rules. And not in the good way.

It was an ill-timed offer with just enough weight to piss off the target yet not enough to make them (St. Louis) think seriously about it. St. Louis was never put in a position to make a bad decision and so they didn't.

Finally, because the deal doesn't make sense it comes off as being opportunistic, or worse yet - a rookie mistake - rather than a business deal and leaves Gillis in the unenviable position of being a GM fewer GM's now think they can trust to do business with.

A lot of GM's won't care. Some will. That is bad.

If Gillis had been smart about it he would have let Backes know he was interested and then waited until St. Louis had started extending its bank account. Then, if St. Louis was vulnerable, make the 2.5 offer. Depending on how vulnerable they are you just may get your guy.

If serious about Backes as a player however, then offer $2.80 and go for 4 or 5 years. At this price point St. Louis has to decide if a 1st and a 3rd is worth it. Where a 2nd round pick isn't even worth thinking about a 1st rounder automatically garners attention.

Either way - Gillis wins. St. Louis is now a) paying a lot for a guy they can barely afford to pay the cash to now or b) Gillis gets his guy.

Here's the thing... is Backes even that good? Wth?

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SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA

Here is a decent RFA bid that teams just missed out on:

Riley Cote

You may think I am crazy but Cote is a decent fighter and lest no one was looking Philly just signed him for 3 years at 550k a year. Next time you hear of a team that says it needs a fighter... there was one there for the asking.

Philly is in tight and would have had to look for LTIR relief (Hatcher) or trade. An offer of 850k a year to Cote, and thus avoiding compensatory draft picks, would have been enough to make them sweat, blink or both.

Here is a better RFA bid that teams are missing out on:

Boyd Gordon

The guy has great underlying numbers and it shouldn't be a secret that Washington started to play better when he came back from injury (wasn't all Huet). Per Desjardins, the 06-07 numbers are great and 07-08 dipped, a bit, due to injury.

Washington will be tight to the Cap this year and would have to decide to match on Gordon, and so pass on UFA's, or use his dollars to fill roster spots. Gordon is worth the money and worth the draft picks ; an offer of ~ $3.00 a year would be strategic and smart.

Here are two more RFA's that might be cheap, worthwhile, signings:

Patrick Thoreson and Jaroslav Halak

If you are a GM who absolutely knows he/she needs a good 4th line player who can pick up 3rd line minutes then what is not to like about a guy like Thoreson?

Halak is inching towards 'elite back-up' status, if you need goaltending why would you ever let Montreal have him for cheap? Heck - as a competitor - why?

Make Philly and Montreal pay. And make yourself stronger at the same time.

Finally, I also really like Freddy Sjostrom, Nigel Dawes and Danny Fritsche. The latter two have great upside and Sjostrom is a decent steady eddie.

Come to think about it - the Rangers are ripe for plundering given their closeness to the Cap.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - Worst & Best

An obligatory listing that will be updated from time to time.

[Updated July 16]

Worst Deals (in order):

FINGER (14.00 / 4 yrs)

Toronto Maple Leafs

A team chock-full of puckmovers pays big money for, yet another, one with very little NHL experience. This after paying $6 million to get rid of a Cap, and possibly locker-room headache in Darcy Tucker.

Why is this contract so bad? Because there is lots wrong with it:

1. the lack of at-bats (TM Lowetide) in-game experience (as noted) make this contract a risk no matter what; hence, the money matters
2. the team is rebuilding anyways - even if he is a difference maker it won't matter for the first 2 or 3 years regardless
3. the contract is too short - if you are going to gamble long-odds then make it worth your while and sign him to 6 years

ALL the risk is on Toronto. The funny part (per #3) is that if they do win the bet they won't have him around long enough to enjoy it.

THEODORE (9.00 / 2 yrs)

Washington Capitals

You gotta be kidding me. Would have been better off tossing a 2nd round and a 4th round pick at Chicago (Khabibulin) or at Edmonton (Roloson). Overall cheaper. Overall better. Wait in the weeds for another guy to shake loose and call it even.

REDDEN (39.00 / 6 yrs)

New York Rangers

Heh hehheh hehhehhehheh ha haha hahahaha hahahahAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Aw crap.

RYDER (12.00 / 3 yrs)

Boston Bruins

A guy who should have been a value signing gets borderline 1st line money. If Chiarelli was heart-broken over not getting Hossa THIS was helluva an expensive rebound fling. Ryder might actually earn this contract but that is small solace imo because it should never have been about 'might'.

ROZSIVAL (20.00 / 4 yrs)

New York Rangers

Used to be a guy who outperformed his contract. Fat chance of that happening again. One of my favorite underappreciated's just got appreciably too expensive for his production to justify.

HUET (22.50 / 4 yrs) and CAMPBELL (57.00 / 8 yrs)

Chicago Blackhawks

I like Huet. I really do. I like Campbell. I really do. But c'mon. Even making the play-offs might not help these contracts pay for themselves. And that is the problem really.

When a team NEEDS to make the Finals just to get to the point of being 'moderately-justified' on over-priced contracts it is in trouble from when it first signed those contracts.

Note: I didn't say WIN.

ROLSTON (20.00 / 4 yrs)

New Jersey Devils

Funny. Some of New Jersey's deals are winners (Salvador) while others... not so much. This one is of the 'not-so-much' type. No way Rolston is full value in years 2, 3 and 4.

HUSELIUS (19.00 / 4 yrs)

Columbus Blue Jackets

When a team, in a weak position, overpays on an UFA contract I generally find it to be unfortunate. That is reality however so there is little I can really say. When said team dramatically overpays a guy who is NOT a difference maker however...

... this is not a deal that makes the Blue Jackets any better. First big miss by Howson.


Best Deals (in order):

SAUER (7.00 / 4 yrs)

Phoenix Coyotes

Phenomenal deal for a guy who will be their defensive back-stop for the next 4 years. This was the guy Boynton was supposed to be. Best signing of the UFA season. If Maloney had snuck an extra year or two (at $ 1.75 mill each of course) in there it would have established a bench mark by which all others could be judged.

HOSSA (7.40 / 1 yr)

Detroit Red Wings

Barring injury detroit is a lock for the Conference finals and winning the Cup is more probable than possible. Crazy good team.

SALVADOR (11.60 / 4 yrs)

New Jersey Devils

Solid, solid defenseman who will outperform this contract. And that is what it is all about really. New Jersey solidifies their defense, first, yet again.

WILLIAMS (2.20 / 1 yr)

Atlanta Thrashers

Textbook signing by the Thrashers.

If he DOES NOT perform to spec he can be dumped quickly and painlessly at the deadline or at the end of the season.

If he DOES perform to spec then, at the trade deadline, if he is willing to sign long-term for cheap/easy/reasonable cash the team can sign him; if not willing the team can trade him for valuable prospects and picks.

Atlanta only loses on a season-ender. Which can be said of any player.

BRUNETTE (7.00 / 3 yrs)

Minnesota Wild

Always been a fan of his and I figured he would be too expensive after his big years in Colorado. Guess not. This is a great signing for Minnesota.

STUART (15.00 / 4 yrs) and CONKLIN (0.75 / 1 yr)

Detroit Red Wings

Detroits 'win-with-us' slogan (should be anyways) continues to serve the team well. I don't even like Stuart as a player but he did have chemistry with them and he left some 500k a year on the table so I have to call it a win.

Conklin is a very good back-up for that price. Almost nice to see that he has a career again. Almost.

-spits-

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Have a great evening everyone

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - Snapshots

[Updated July 2]

Some commentary given the action so far:

STILLMAN

Panthers sign Stillman for $10.00 million over 3 years.

From my previous post: "...if a team can get him signed to deal in the 2.00 to 3.00 range (years vary with price) they will be very happy with their investment."

They pay a lot more than they should have imo. At $3.35 mill/yr or so, for a guy who will be 37 yrs old by the end of the deal, the team is paying for one year of full production and two years of declining production.

Not a great contract. $3.35 mill /yr, for two years, would have been lots.

RYDER

Bruins sign Ryder for $12.00 million over 3 years.

From my previous post: A smart team will see through the smokescreen, sign Ryder for something in the 2.25 to 2.75 range (I expect 2 to 3 years) and find that, with more powerplay time, they made a good move.

Wow. NOT smarter that the average Bear.

IF he does rebound they only get him for 3 years and if he doesn't they have massively overpaid him. Their only hope to win this contract is that he scores 50 pts next year and never gets better OR they win the Cup - but that is always the way isn't it?

DUPUIS

Penguins sign Dupuis for $4.20 million over 3 years.

From my previous post: "Some smart team will pick him up on a 3 year deal in the 1.25 to 1.50 range."

And some smart team did. Good signing by Pittsburgh.

PANDOLPHO

Devils sign Pandolpho for, what looks to be, $7.50 mill over 3 years.

From my previous post: "A 3 year declining balance deal looks to be a good way to go (say 2.75 / 1.5 / 1.25)."

He got way more than that. As with the Stillman deal, given his age and other factors it is hard to say that Pandolpho will earn that 3rd year on his contract. $2.50 a year for 2 years would have made sense but... well.. gotta pay to play I guess.

ROSZIVAL

Rangers sign Roszival for $20.00 million over 4 years.

From my previous post: "This year he gets his money. Good for him. Anything under $4.50 mill /yr is a good deal for the team that gets him."

And he did get his money. And then some. Good for him and bad for the Rangers overall roster and salary management.

HAINSEY

Thrashers sign Hainsey for $22.50 million over 5 years.

From my previous post: "...even playing for Hitchcock he was still only middlin' effective at evens. I expect him to get $4.50 or so a year and I don't know if he is worth it."

Pretty much what I expected. The saving grace is that if he is worth it then they have him for 5 years. The risk was all on them (the Thrashers) anyways.

VANDERMEER

Flames sign Vandermeer for,what looks to be, $6.90 million over 3 years.

From my previous post: "A smart team locks a guy like Vandermeer up for 4 or more years in the $1.35 to 1.65 range. At that price point, in the right roster spot, he will be a very effective player."

First of all I would like to say that I wish the Calgary Flames the best of luck this playoff season.

SALVADOR

Devils sign Salvador for $11.60 mill over 4 years.

From my previous post: "I expect to see him get a 4 year deal in the $3.00 to 4.00 mill /yr range and I expect that he will earn it. At any price point lower than $3.00 he is a steal."

Devils just stole themselves a winner. Great signing.

SAUER

Coyotes sign Sauer for $7.00 mill over 4 years.

From my previous post: "Take a guy like Sauer, pay him $2 mill /yr or so (I expect he gets a touch more), and then play him with your offensive zone wanderers. You will look like a genious."

Maloney is a genious. THAT is one of the best signings of the entire UFA season.

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More to come as I will update this post periodically.