Wednesday, June 17, 2009

NHL Entry Draft (2009)


For archive purposes I am compiling my NHL Entry Draft (2009) stuff here. As with last year's NHL Entry Draft (2008) archive, this first post acts as a primer that contains the set-up info of interest going into the draft.

Links to the other two articles in this series:

NHL Entry Draft 2009 - First Round Review

NHL Entry Draft 2009 - Oiler Picks (to come)

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Personal Thoughts

What an incredible draft group. There are, from what I can discern, 8 picks that 'should' turn into all-stars and of those there are a few who could be Hall of Fame candidates.

Crazy year. Pass the kool-aid.

-- Tavares - given the hype this is a risky pick; to take or to pass, that is the question
-- Hedman - stud pick with no question marks
-- Duchene - see Hedman
-- Cowen - despite injury concerns he still makes the top-7; wow
-- Schenn - best 'safe' bet after the top-3; will he justify the pick?
-- Kadri, Josefson, Leblanc, Ellis, Glennie - all notable for only making 3 of 5 lists (top-15)
-- Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov - one of two I would hope for at #10

As opposed to last year this is NOT the kind of draft where trading into the top-14 will net best value on the dollar. The depth of the draft justifies the hype but that means the prices will be high, really high. Think about it - who will want to be the guy who trades the next Jordan Stall (Schenn in this draft)?

Where there will be action is in the top-5. As I have noted elsewhere, Colorado and Los Angeles are two teams that are in a position to trade their picks in exchange for a better play-off push next year - that means their picks may be in play; either by themself or as part of a push by another team (say Toronto) to secure a top-2 pick.

The Islanders and the Lighting may just swap picks but, from where I sit, both teams have the assets to make major plays this year. I expect, however, whimpers from both teams.

Tambellini does have the assets to snag a second 1st rounder this draft but that pick won't be until late in the round and at that point, well, whoopee-de-do-da.

i.e. the price point would be high and the 40th + Nilsson won't net you much

What do I expect? I expect we shall see Tambellini stand pat or trade spare parts for extra picks in later rounds. I half-expect to see a lot of Cap-unloading action, by all teams, taking place.

Miracles would include coming out of this draft with two of Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov and Glennie. Happiness means getting one of Ekman-Larsson or Kulikov at 10 or trading down to get one of Ellis or Glennie in the 12 to 15 range.

Without further ado...

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Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)

01 -- _10
02 -- _40
03 -- _71
03 -- _82 ... Trade with Philadelphia
04 -- 101
05 -- 130
06 -- 160
07 -- 190

Remember to adjust for compensation picks.


Team Order - 1st Round

01.. NY Islanders
02.. Tampa Bay
03.. Colorado
04.. Atlanta
05.. Los Angeles
06.. Phoenix
07.. Toronto
08.. Dallas
09.. Ottawa
10.. Edmonton
11.. Nashville
12.. Minnesota
13.. Buffalo
14.. Florida
15.. Anaheim
16.. Columbus
17.. St. Louis
18.. Montreal
19.. NY Rangers
20.. Calgary
21.. Philadelphia
22.. Vancouver
23.. New Jersey
24.. Washington
25.. Boston
26.. NY Islanders ... via ... San Jose
27.. Carolina
28.. Chicago
29.. Detroit
30.. Pittsburgh


Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).

Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.

Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.


The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)

... McKeens* .... ISS ......... Redline* .... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Tavares
2.. Tavares ..... Duchene ..... Duchene ..... Hedman ...... Hedman
3.. Duchene ..... Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Duchene ..... Duchene
4.. Ek-Larsson .. Pa-Svensson . Schenn ...... Cowen ....... Kane
5.. Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Pa-Svensson
6.. Schenn ...... Schenn ...... Pa-Svensson . Schenn ...... Schenn
7.. Kulikov ..... Cowen ....... Ek-Larsson .. Pa-Svensson . Schroeder
8.. Cowen ....... Kadri ....... Cowen ....... Kadri ....... Josefson
9.. Kadri ....... Ek-Larsson .. Kulikov ..... Schroeder ... Moore
10. Pa-Svensson . Kulikov ..... Leblanc ..... Rundblad .... Glennie
11. Ellis ....... Josefson .... Schroeder ... Kulikov ..... Ek-Larsson
12. Moore ....... Leblanc ..... Rundblad .... Depres ...... Depres
13. Schroeder ... Ellis ....... Ellis ....... Ek-Larsson .. Cowen
14. Glennie ..... Schroeder ... Roussel ..... Glennie ..... Erixon
15. Leblanc ..... Holland ..... Morin ....... Josefson .... Kassian



Graded Rankings

.................... Top-10 . Scoring

Tavares ............... 5 ___ 14 + 15 + 13 + 15 + 15 = 72
Hedman ................ 5 ___ 15 + 13 + 15 + 14 + 14 = 71
Duchene ............... 5 ___ 13 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 13 = 67
Kane .................. 5 ___ 11 + 11 + 11 + 11 + 12 = 56
Schenn ................ 5 ___ 10 + 10 + 12 + 10 + 10 = 52
Paajarvi-Svensson ..... 5 ___ 06 + 12 + 10 + 09 + 11 = 48
Cowen ................. 4 ___ 08 + 09 + 08 + 12 + 03 = 40
Ekman-Larsson ......... 3 ___ 12 + 07 + 09 + 03 + 05 = 36
Kulikov ............... 3 ___ 09 + 06 + 07 + 05 + 00 = 27
Schroeder ............. 2 ___ 03 + 02 + 05 + 07 + 09 = 26
Kadri ................. 3 ___ 07 + 08 + 00 + 08 + 00 = 23
Josefson .............. 1 ___ 00 + 05 + 00 + 01 + 08 = 14
Leblanc ............... 1 ___ 01 + 04 + 06 + 00 + 00 = 11
Ellis ................. 0 ___ 05 + 03 + 03 + 00 + 00 = 11
Glennie ............... 1 ___ 02 + 00 + 00 + 02 + 06 = 10
Rundblad .............. 1 ___ 00 + 00 + 04 + 00 + 06 = 10
Moore ................. 1 ___ 04 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 06 = 10
Despres ......... ..... 0 ___ 00 + 00 + 00 + 04 + 04 = 08
Roussel, Erixon, Holland, Morin, Kassian (all 2 pts or less).



The big 3: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne
Next best thing: Kane, Schenn
Should be Good: Paajarvi-Svensson, Cowen, Ekman-Larsson
Consolation Prizes: Kulikov, Schroeder, Kadri
Afterthoughts: Josefson, Leblanc, Ellis, Glennie and everyone else


A Rule Of Thumb

When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.

Kulikov has 27 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Ekman-Larsson by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Cowen or Paajarvi-Svensson.

Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:

-- Excepting that the Islanders have signalled Tavares, Hedman or Duchene could go #1
-- Cowen could overtake Paajarvi-Svensson and, maybe, even Schenn but not Kane
-- If anyone ranked below Schroeder is chosen in the top-8 it SHOULD be a major surprise
-- If anyone ranked below Kadri is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

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* McKeen's and Redline only release, for free, their top-10. I found the other 5 names using various, legal, websites but cannot completely verify for accuracy. If you have the goods please feel free to self-correct while you read.

I will update as the information becomes public.

** CSB does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.

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Have a great evening everyone, and enjoy the draft.

4 comments:

Bruce said...

YKOil: Excellent work, as usual. I look forward to your ongoing draft coverage.

speeds said...

Love reading your stuff all the time, but as a huge fan of the draft I really love these kinds of articles.

Any preference yourself as to who the Oilers draft, given who you expect to be available?

speeds said...

Sorry if I was unclear there, I was thinking that both Kulikov and Ekman-Larsson (two guys you mention liking) could be gone by 10 OV, so I was wondering who you like if those two are gone by the time EDM picks at 10?

YKOil said...

Hrmmm... if both are gone by the ten-spot then:

1. IF my scouts are totally sold on the offensive potential and probable success of Schroeder and/or Ellis (a la Willis) then I take the one they like best.

2. IF they aren't totally sold then I try to trade down and take Glennie

3. IF I can't trade down I take Schroeder because it's easier to pump a forwards results than it is a defenseman's (forwards are easier to hide and give butter minutes too); if he happens to turn out I keep him but if not I maximize trade value (see also Eberle)


Problem for me - not sold on Kadri and so that leaves me the two shorties.

For me to get what I want I need someone to take Schroeder or take a flyer on Kassian.