Pouliot Scores! oh, and a note on Souray(s)

First of all - props to my buddy Kevin, here in Edmonton, who secured tickets to the game for tonite. I predicted a 4-2 win for the Oil and duly promise to only use my powers for the forces of good.

Big game for Pouliot. Possibly his best NHL game ever. Personally I thought he looked slow at times but I have to say that this is the first time I have watched him, as a player in the NHL, that he reminded me of what he was like so long ago when I watched him play with Crosby.

i.e. he is a smart player who complements his linemates: play him with quality and you get improved quality, play him with lesser quality players (insert name here) and... well... yeah...

Props to Stortini on his goal btw. Well deserved.

Also, second game in row (I believe) where Pouliot was all about the powerplay and Brodziak was all about the penalty kill.

What does that mean?

MacT is back my friends. He is playing to win now so expect to see player skill sets utilized efficiently and effectively. Look at the TOI numbers tonite: over 26 minutes for both Souray and Visnovsky and over 24 for Horcoff.

MacT wanted the win.

Too bad it may still be too late for anything but a run at the last couple play-off spots.

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I find it interesting, in Edmonton we have a powerplay mindset that is all about the point shot while in Montreal the powerplay mindset is all about the puck control and passing.

Take the puck control and passing game out of the Edmonton powerplay handbook and the powerplay suffers because everyone knows where the puck will go.

Take the big shot out of the Montreal powerplay handbook and the powerplay suffers because everyone knows to shut down the lanes and take away the shot.

What I find interesting is the role a guy like Souray (or Streit or Stoll) can have in determining the effectiveness of a powerplay. In both cases the powerplay is much LESS effective than it should be. And it is obviously so.

Yet teams still build powerplay units that lack, definitively, in certain areas.

Blows my mind that Montreal didn't think they needed a big league shooter on their powerplay. Blows my mind that Edmonton doesn't work the puck control and passing aspects of a powerplay more.

Souray, and the guys like him, deserve better imo.

So do us fans.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Franchise 101 - Part 05 - Objectivity

Part 5 of a series of posts regarding NHL (sports really) teams. The series will serve as a template by which a casual fan can better determine the present and future state of the team they love.

Each team enters each stage of the each annual cycle (a different post) in a certain competitive state or standing. The examination of this state, or standing, powers billion dollar industries (from bookies to sports writers to internet sports blogs... okay... maybe not billions) and those who win (read: bookies) are those who consistently exercise their ability to be objective about said state or standing.

A quick lesson on Objectivity and Subjectivity:

Objectivity

Yes. Halle Berry is better looking than my wife.

Subjectivity

My wife is every good thing for me. She rocks my world in every way. Absolutely gorgeous. Get lost Halle.

The Goal

There is the rub. As long as the topic, or goal, is simply that of 'who is most attractive' then my example stands, if however, the issue is that of lifemate and compatibility then my example is stood on its head (pointed as it may be).

Does luck play a role? Of course. Is some subjectivity a good thing? Of course. Too much of either however is, typically, a bad thing.

The lesson - as important as it is to objectively classify the competitive standing of a team it is even more important to understand the goal at hand. Ostensibly this is to win the Stanley Cup.

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In the NHL there are, really, only four categories needed to classify the competitive standing of each team: Play-off Longshot, Play-off Bubble Team, Play-off Probable and Cup Contender.

Play-off Longshot

The team, as currently constituted, won't be in the play-off chase. Too young, too injured, too dysfunctional, too short on talent in key spots and/or too much of any combination of the items already mentioned - it just isn't a play-off team.

Everything would have to break right for this team to make a run.

Play-off Bubble Team

The team, as currently constituted, has some issues but is strong enough in other areas to compensate. If the team can avoid the injury bug and/or long-term slumps from key players then they should be competitive most nights and right in the thick of it.

Throw in a career year from a key player and/or a rookie that blows the doors off and this team is in and may be making a run.

Play-off Probable

The team, as currently constituted, has few issues and a lot of strengths. Barring impairment caused by long-term injuries to, or unexplicable drops in performance from, key players or a total break-down in team chemistry this team will be 'in' the play-offs, not 'trying' to get in.

If a few things break right this team will be competing for a top-4 conference finish and can be considered a Cup contender.

Cup Contender

The team, as currently constituted, is a powerhouse that only total catastrophe can derail from a play-off berth. A solid team without any real weaknesses the roster will have players whose talent is undeniable, players whose performance is dependable, and players who know how to compete night after night. The team probably has a few players who have all three of those qualities.

These are strong teams that can survive the odd set-back quite easily and if players play like they should they will be in it to the end.

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A GM who has an accurate gauge of the competitive standing of their team should have an advantage over the GM's who do not. I said 'should' because other factors may be in play; the most common being, of course, interference from higher management.

So again. Think about your team. Is it operating in a way that is consistent with what it's competitive standing is? What is the goal, or purpose to which, the management team is working towards? Are standing, actions and goal in sync?

Really?

The first was a bit of a trick question folks. Worry not, we'll get to another another day.

Franchise 101 - Introduction and Chapter Listing

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Have a great evening everyone.

Franchise 101 - Chapter Listing

This will serve as the prologue for my Franchise 101 series of posts. The series will, hopefully, serve as a template by which a casual fan can better determine the present and future state of the team they love.

This is all on a 'as-I-write-it' basis so don't go hoping I lay it all out for you in a timely manner; just check back from time to time and remain patient (I guess).

Also, it should be obvious that it isn't in a 'should-be-the-way-a-real-book-would-do-it' format. That would take a lot more work and, quite possibly, some talent. I do not claim to have the latter and given my posting history on this blog you should know better.

That said, here is what I have down so far:

Franchise 101

Ch. 1 - Markets

Ch. 2 - Owners

Ch. 3 - Money

Ch. 4 - Corporate Structure

Ch. 5 - Objectivity

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Have a great evening everyone.

Gladiator

Anyone who has ever visited here knows that timeliness, at least in terms of writing, is not my strong suit.

The current trend in blogging - had that down cold over a year ago. Just not a word of it here (though to be fair I do have a draft version dating some time back saved here).

This time I am going to get my thoughts down now. Which is to say: the Edmonton Oilers suffer from serious group think. This is not a team that can think originally or independently anymore.

The Good Soldier

Craig MacTavish is, imo, an excellent coach who has only ever had three serious flaws (again, my opinion), in order:

1. Can't coach a powerplay to save his life

----- (every year) the personnel is never good enough?

2. Toes the company line too often

----- (2006-07) i.e. Smid's playing time versus that of Hejda's

3. Plays to his favorites and his whipping boys a bit too much

----- (prior to this year) it was always Pouliot's fault? Always?

The last item isn't that big of a deal as it is true of many coaches but the other two items can be killers. And this is the year they will kill MacT. Unlike Ted Nolan - who was fired because he wouldn't do what management asked - MacT will resign exactly because he has done what management asked.

There is no way Ted Nolan would have sacrificed a full 20+ games to Cole playing LW, Smid sitting in favor of Strudwick, Pisani playing at center and Gagner getting mouthfull after mouthfull of hard minutes. After 6 games (8 tops) he would have done what any reasonable coach would have done:

a. sat Strudwick
b. played Smid w/Staios (at least they knew each other)
c. reunited Horpensky
d. played Moreau and Pisani w/Brodziak or Pouliot
e. fed the kid line soft minutes
f. rolled 3 lines because the 4th line sucked
g. slotted Cole where he could
h. picked a two tender rotation

I do not say all of that to blow sunshine up Nolan's ass. (Nolan saw it as his job to win games. Period. Hence, when Snow and Wang wanted development and didn't get it guess who got fired?) I say it to make the point - MacT has blown a large chunk of the season doing exactly what the team asked him to do: try to spin gold from what, it turns out, may be only be pyrite.

We know that MacT is a good bench boss. His history proves it. Something is not right here.

Commodus

Every year this team has an obvious hole in the roster. Every year, except for late in 2005-06, it goes unfilled.

Every year this team has a sub-standard power play. Every year.

Every year this team sacrifices a smart contract; sometimes for a poor contract and sometimes for nothing at all, not even beans. Every year.

Every year, excepting 2005-06, smart roster moves are a negated by poor roster moves that are equal in the measure. Every year.

Those items are all items of management. And this year it is coming home to roost.

Why?

Because this team doesn't match the coach. Make no mistake folks. I am pinning the overall blame on Lowe. I don't think MacT has lost the room - he never had this one.

To change the metaphor a bit: He just doesn't have the tools and the ones he does have he has been asked to use in ways he would not normally do so.

Like trying to drill into concrete using a regular drill.

or maybe

Like trying to use Pisani, RW stalwart extraordinaire, as a center for the first quarter of a season.

But if all you are given is a regular drill, or in MacT's case, a bunch of overwhelmed younglings, then maybe you pick the best drill you have and pray for the miracle you know won't come.

Concrete being what it is anyways.

In The Colisseum

And so we have a team that looks good on paper, Cole and Visnovsky are great players and Souray is playing at an all-star level, but it all falls down when it is all put together.

Which brings me back to the first point.

A team which has forward thinking management would not be making these mistakes. For all the great potential Cole has he would not have been brought onto a team which has no where for him to play.

A team which has independent thinkers in management would not have watched Stoll, Reasoner and Glencross leave, without adequate replacement, without someone yelling to the highest heavens - "THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE".

A team which has results orientated managment in place would not rely on the same tacticians, every year, to run the same incompetent powerplay - at the very least new brains would have been brought in to work with the existing ones.

A team which has capable management in place would not watch its penalty killing units degrade to the point of uselessness without rectifying the situation long before it got chronic... or even fatal.

A team that says it's goal is to win would use its resources in that way. Win first. Experiment and babysit later.

A team that has too much groupthink on the otherhand... well that team had better hope for a miracle because this season will bleed MacT dry by the time it is over.

I'll miss MacT. I really like him and I think he is an excellent coach.

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Had a trade thought the other day:

Vermette, Kuba & a draft pick
FOR
Cole, Brodziak & Grebeshkov

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Introduction

Please leave your comments here.

Welcome to the 2008 edition of the Atlanta Thrashers Draft Review. It is a comprehensive study of the draft history of the Atlanta Thrashers NHL Hockey team. This is the first version of this study to be produced by myself.

Follow the links and you will see where I review the last 10 years of the Atlanta Thrashers draft history, grade every player on their performance as a hockey player, and then dissect that information into seven (7) key analysis groups so that I can measure the success of the organization in terms of: Draft Year, Draft Pick, Draft Round, Player Age When Drafted, Drafting by Position, Developmental League and Nationality.

"... grade every player on their performance as a hockey player... ". This is very important and I will devote an entire chapter (the 'Player Grading System') of this review to that goal. For now I will limit my comments to a single, pertinent point: This study is concerned with the organizations ability to draft talent - how that player played for the Thrashers or what 'value' that player had in relation to trades made (for example) is irrelevant.

While every page of this review will have some of my commentary on it, I am leaving much of the analysis open for discussion. Take from it what you will. The data set is, as of yet, small but there is ancillary work that could be done so feel free to go to town with it.

"... It is, after all, my work." Please keep that in mind, not just for purposes of copyright, but for purposes of simple etiquette as well. Feel free to critique - just don't be an ass about it.

Thanks.

Chapter links can be found below. The study is best read by following the links in order.

Without further ado, I invite you to read and enjoy, the Atlanta Thrashers Draft Review (2008) Edition.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Short Summary

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Short Recap / Summary

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

The Atlanta Thrashers started out with a whole lot of nothing and it didn't get much better from there. From the work I have done I have to blame a lot of it on timing.

Think Expansion Draft lists for a second. The Thrashers Expansion Draft was held in 1999. Drafting one year AFTER the Thrashers one would think that the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild would be picking from the dregs of the pool yet the draft rules in place and the expiry of another year (in terms of player career timelines) meant that those teams actually did BETTER than Atlanta.

That meant that the Entry Draft had to be Atlanta's salvation.

Sadly, their first Entry Draft year was 1999. Quite possibly one of the weakest draft years of the modern (read: expansion) era. Atlanta took the best player they could and that player was Patrik Stefan.

Stefan was/is a good honest player. Just not that good. Exelby, the only other player of note to come out of that year had development timelines that reflected his draft pick; not a good thing.

Heatley and Kovalchuk were the obvious picks in their years but Lehtonen, as good as he was touted to be, was a serious mis-step. Coburn was a great pick but Atlanta management had performance issues and wasted the potential.

With a derth of quality coming out of their later round picks the team's staging years, from which the Thrashers could build a solid foundation for Stanley Cup contention, were wasted.

So, combine:

1. a poor starting point (the 1999 Expansion and Entry Drafts) with
2. a below par performance from the scouting staff** and
3. questionable trades with few pure 'winners' in the group

and it really didn't matter how good some subsequent 1st round picks were - they all had to be superstars for this team to succeed.

** note the fail marks per draft rounds 2 through 7

Despite the loss of Coburn, 2003 may actually mark the beginning of a new building program for the club as Enstrom has proven to be an effective driver of the powerplay, Valabik (2004) might actually have a career and Little (2006) is showing well in early results.

If Lehtonen can be the goalie he projected to be, albeit a few years later than needed, and the team can get a nice return on Kovalchuk then the future could be bright. If Pavelec is the goalie of the Thrashers future then all the better as that makes Lehtonen available for trade.

Could make for a nice next five.

In summary, from:

-- 1999 to 2003 (5 drafts) the team fared, at best, average but needed to do far better;

-- 2004 to 2008 (5 drafts) the team has a chance to start all over and maybe 2013 will be the magic year

Maybe.

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players

Atlanta Thrashers

v. 2008

Historical Review of Draft Results

Graded Players, Summary Of

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Applying the Player Grading System to the draft pool of the Atlanta Thrashers I came up with this:

Hall of Fame level (grade A+ / score 600)

We know who these guys are, their accomplishments speak for themselves. While Hall of Fame players are often called 'superstars', this is actually quite limiting. A Hall of Fame player can also be a player who has been a 'star' long enough, and consistently enough, to earn the universal respect of the hockey world. Kevin Lowe only has one remarkable statistic on his Hall of Fame resume - the number 6 - which is the number of Stanley Cup rings he earned in his underrated, and brilliant, career.

-


Star level (grade A / score 300)

Star caliber players have excelled, literally excelled, at their position or role on the team. However, they have never done enough to be considered one of THE elite players at the position. Players that get this rating don't always have to have amazing point totals; Guy Carboneau never had great point totals but he did win a whack of Stanley Cups and trophy hardware, enough in fact that he could be Hall of Fame material - let alone a 'star'. Brendan Shanahan may be hard pressed to get in the Hall, as will Doug Weight, but they are both 'star' caliber players.

Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk


Solid level (grade B / score 150)

Never quite gaining 'star' status, a 'solid' NHL player is welcome on any NHL team. Their contribution(s) to their team’s - whether from talent (think Slava Kozlov) or desire (think McSorley – pre-hatchet work) - is generally not in question. They have produced enough, long enough, to be considered an asset of some worth. Note that there are two additional sub-classes of 'solid' players - high-level 'journeymen' who have incredible longevity (a Van Allen type) and those 'star' players who don't have the longevity (think Poddubny).

Kari Lehtonen


Journeyman level (grade C / score 90)

No NHL team can survive without the role-players on the team; someone has to do the dirty work. They are 'solid' players in their own right but never achieve the higher rating for one of two reasons: they never played enough games or they never really rose above the 4th line/#6 defenseman status they had. Where a player like Grier will probably attain a 'solid' player ranking (given a few more years), a player like Dowd will be hard pressed to ever be considered more than a 'journeyman' (even though playing with Gaborik may have obfuscated the issue).

Patrik Stefan, Garnet Exelby, Darcy Hordichuk, Jim Slater, Braydon Coburn, Tobias Enstrom


Borderline level (grade D / score 30)

Players who never fulfilled their potential, and ultimately, frittered away their NHL career. Some players in this category could have had one, or even two, remarkable seasons - they just never put it all together for any real length of time. 'Borderline' also describes players in the NHL right now who have careers in a state of flux - will they pan out, or not? Consider Jimmy Carson - a great rookie (L.A.), a decent sophomore (Edm.) and a lackluster career (everywhere). Too talented to be a 'journeyman', never a 'star' and not around long enough to be a 'solid' player.

Pasi Nurminen


Coffee level (grade E / score 00)

As in 'Cup of Coffee'. This is the guy who shows up for a few games as an injury fill-in but is sent right back down when expendable. No impact at all on the major leagues (as a player at least).

Luke Sellars, Zdenek Blatny, Derek MacKenzie, Tommi Santala, Simon Gamache, Michael Garnett, Colin Stuart


Unranked players and prospects (grade F or UNR / score - 30)

Didn't even make the show. Not a reflection of character (none of the categories are really). Just a fact. Note that this ranking applies somewhat differently to prospects. In the case of prospects, what matters is the 'buzz' surrounding that player. Unranked prospects, by definition, aren't expected to make the show. Most late round draft picks fall into this category by default while most early round draft picks have to play their way into it (not a good thing btw).

Too many to name - 35 players, 26 prospects... and counting.


Star level prospects (grade STP / score 120)

The next big thing. Will score goals by the bucketful or stop everything bigger than a pea from getting into the net. Every team wants to draft these players (or trade for them) and few teams have them. No one exactly what the new guy will do in the show but everyone KNOWS they will do something. Of course, 'will do' often turns into 'should have done' but we will leave that alone for now.

Zack Bogosian


Solid level prospects (grade SLP / score 60)

Sure this guy may not be the next Selanne, but everyone thinks that he MIGHT be able to do something at the pro-level. He might just end-up as a 'journeyman' that bounces from team to team and pots 20-40 points a year OR he might be the next Glenn Anderson, BUT at least he it hoped that he will do SOMETHING. Please note the distinction there - 'solid prospects' might while 'star prospects' should.

Brett Sterling, Ondrej Pavelec, Bryan Little


Borderline level prospects (grade BRD / score 00)

Will this guy even make it to the NHL? Who knows? They may be a surprise to everyone if they ever find the right situation with the right team. Question is: is Atlanta that team? Most '?' prospects will probably get a cup of coffee with the team, but anything more than that is a guess. Expansion figures large with this category as talent depth is so thin everyone sifts through waiver wire prospects for copper.

Boris Valabik, Grant Lewis, Alex Bourret, Jordan LaVallee, Riley Holzapfel, Spencer Machacek, Daultan Leveille

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Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2008

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Player Grading System
Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Graded Players Summary

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Have a great evening everyone.