Monday, 27 April 2009


The Three Best

The three best players in the NHL, in my opinion, the three guys I would never trade, are simply these (in order):


I cannot think of anyone else who makes the difference they do. And I would probably take Gonchar and Zetterberg over Crosby or Malkin, but that's just me.

Quick Note (Horcoff)

Tyler Dellow has a great post up on Horcoff and the relative value of his contract. To grossly oversimplify the arguement (mine - not his) I'll throw some extra pennies on the table:

Year ...... Cap (m$) .... Inflation .... Sal (m$)

2005-06 ...... 39.0 ....................... 3.60
2006-07 ...... 44.0 ....... 12.8 % ........ 4.06
2007-08 ...... 50.3 ....... 14.3 % ........ 4.64
2008-09 ...... 56.7 ....... 12.7 % ........ 5.23

2009-10 ...... 56.7 ........ 0.0 % ........ 5.23 SQ
2009-10 ...... 62.0 ........ 9.3 % ........ 5.72 UP
2009-10 ...... 54.7 ....... -3.5 % ........ 5.05 DN

So... don't really see where Horcoff's contract is an overpay.

If one accepts the fact that he was a $ 3.60 mill /yr player in 2005-06 then, just using simple Cap inflation, he is underpaid by 200k+ (the UP) starting next year. While the numbers aren't up there (too lazy), the simple math says that Cap inflation is required to be less than 5% to make him an overpaid player.

Can you imagine if the comp was against UFA salary inflation (an approach that would have been more appropriate) instead of overall Cap inflation? Gets even worse for all of you Horcoff haters if one looks at UFA salary inflation for players in the 27 - 32 years old category (most appropriate).

A long time ago, speaking of his last contract, I said that the only issue I had with it was that it should have been for one more year (4 years instead of 3) - a position that looks pds right about now...


... that isn't something I could hold against Lowe then (and I didn't) so it certainly isn't anything I can hold against him now. It is what it is - a pretty fair contract.

And do you really think Horcoff would negotiate his next contract after a year like the past one? Give your head a shake.

Channel that anger elsewhere people - Horcoff doesn't deserve it.

About That Cap

It's pretty obvious that declines in NHL team revenues will dramatically impact player payrolls. The trick is to see whether or not this then impacts the Salary Cap. This can go one of three ways:

1. Excessively large drop in Cap (as much as $10 million?)
2. Small drop in the Cap and let escrow handle it
3. Moderate mix of the above

I tend to believe, that for 2009-10, we will get #2. The Cap will dip slightly, no more than $2 million, and the escrow account will be HUGE.

In this way:

- small market teams get a bit of relief as they see a drop in Cap Floor;
- large market teams (still) get to exploit their payroll budget advantage; and
- player contract rewards will remain stable (just sans inflation)

For the purposes of future, and even this, post(s) that takes the Cap to ~ $54.7 million.

For max Cap teams that lack in expiring/deadweight salary, like Edmonton, this will hurt a little bit. Not only will the team be lacking in the space it needs to sign all of it's players, other teams will have less space available to absorb the salary Edmonton wants to trade.

No question, as noted a few days ago, Brian Burke is sitting in the catbird's seat this off-season.

Prendergast Update

The Prendergast post of a few weeks ago has been updated to link new items:

1. Guy's third post in the series and
2. Tyler Dellow's rebuttal **

** Tyler rebuts (quite rightly) the impression, as left in Guy's first two posts at least, that MacT was sabotaging the development of prospects into players.

To his credit Guy responds as well as anyone could.


Bonus points to anyone who sees the key weakness in my Horcoff arguement. Hint: it has nothing to do with the new contract.


Have a great evening everyone.


MattM said...

"If one accepts that Horcoff was a 3.6 million dollar player in 05/06"

If I don't grant that, the rest of your argument based on inflation doesn't work. Also, you have to assume that a player's abilities are essentially static year to year. I'm willing to grant both these points, although I'm sure there are those who aren't.

YKOil said...

Well done Sir!

As a side note one could have looked up exact dates for:

- when the contract was signed
- when the Cap updated (to the 56.7)

as then one could, possibly, have made the point that the contract inflation was outsized to expectation (remember: the early projections weren't as high as the 56.7).