Sunday, April 25, 2010

Hypothermetically Speaking


So... question...

Given that you, as the GM of an NHL team are SERIOUS about rebuilding your club - from the ground up no less - do you make this trade:

Souray, O'Sullivan, Nilsson and Moreau
FOR
Redden, 2010 1st, 2011 2nd and 2012 1st

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The Salary Grid* looks like so:

2010-11: EDM = -4.6 = 4.5 + 2.4 + 2.5 + 1.7 - 6.5
2010-11: NYR = +4.6

2011-12: EDM = +2.0 = 4.5 - 6.5
2011-12: NYR = -2.0

2012-13: EDM = +5.0
2012-13: NYR = -5.0

2013-14: EDM = +5.0
2013-14: NYR = -5.0

* With buy-outs the absolute cost to the Rangers goes down substantially while the relative value of benefits received by the Oilers go down

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The Cap Grid looks like so:

2010-11: EDM = -5.8 = 5.4 + 2.9 + 2.0 + 2.0 - 6.5
2010-11: NYR = +5.8

2011-12: EDM = +1.1 = 5.4 - 6.5
2011-12: NYR = -1.1

2012-13: EDM = +6.5
2012-13: NYR = -6.5

2013-14: EDM = +6.5
2013-14: NYR = -6.5

Surprisingly, the big hit to the Oilers - in regards to the Cap - don't really occur until the 2012-13 season as the two year stretch per the Nilsson and O'Sullivan buy-outs is avoided.

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This is, basically a cash for picks deal with the variables being value received by the Rangers from Souray's play (fight! fight! fight!) and the value received from by the Oilers from Redden's play (doh!).

So:

- is it worth it to you to dump all of your problem contracts/players at once AND get some nice draft picks in exchange for a player on the downslope with a nut-crushing contract?

- is it worth it to the Rangers to get a player(s) they might want AND save their future Cap and cash positions in exchange for being able to dump a Cap and cash killing contract?

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So what do you imagine/mean/believe when you say the words 'rebuild'?

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Have a great evening everyone.

5 comments:

speeds said...

I think a problem with this deal is the other team being the Rangers.

I am not precisely sure what 2 1sts and a 2nd are worth to the Oilers, if they could buy them. Are they worth 7.5 million? Maybe, maybe not. But if they are worth 7.5 million to Edmonton, I don't see why they'd be worth less than that to NYR, and in that case NYR might well decide to keep the picks and Redden, hope his play is better over the next year or two and ship him out then, or stick him in the AHL.

As you say it probably depends how they view the acquired players, in terms of help/hindrance next season.

MikeP said...

I don't see why not. Even if Redden's nowhere near the value for his cap hit, is he worth playing on an NHL blue line? I suspect so. He can't possibly be any worse than Chorney or Strudwick, for instance. And maybe he'd like Edmonton, unlike the fellow they'd be trading for him. Any assets at all for Souray would probably look pretty good at this point - even if he was able to get over his antipathy towards management and vice versa, I can't imagine he's made any friends in the dressing room, which has to have an effect. Unless Redden pisses in peoples' shoes, I doubt he'd have a more deleterious effect than #44 dressing as an Oiler next year would have. The players will all say the right things, but yeah.

From a Rangers POV though, speeds is probably correct. Why would they make this trade?

YKOil said...

For the Rangers it all depends on the value of the buy-outs and Cap space.

If they buy-out Nilsson and O'Sullivan the four year value of Cash savings is:

~ $8.7 million

The Cap grid changes to this:

YR 1: +$1.2

YR 2: -$0.3

YR 3: -$6.5 million

YR 4: -$6.5 million

So how much is $8+ million in cash and $12+ million in Cap savings worth to the Rangers?

YKOil said...

Also, the Cap savings increase substantially if they bury Moreau in the minors (budget costs remain the same though).

They would actually LOWER their Cap hit in Yr 1 by some $500k if they bury Moreau.

They could also do the same with Nilsson and O'Sullivan. Eating their salaries reduces the cash savings but bumps up YR 1 and YR 2 Cap savings accordingly.

How much is that flexibility worth to them?

Don't know.

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