A Plan

In the comment section of the post titled "Can't Have It Both Ways" (directly below this one) Gord's summation is, essentially, that I am saying the Oilers have no plan.

I mostly agree.

I think they do have a plan, I just don't think they know what it means nor how to implement it.

See, the Red Wings are the kind of team where any non-contrarian observer can honestly say that:

"The Red Wings should make the play-offs."

The Oilers however are the kind of team where a large number, maybe even a majority, of non-contrarian observers can only, honestly, say that:

"The Oilers could make the play-offs."

In the same way, the Kings are the kind of team where any non-contrarian observer can honestly say that:

"The Kings have enough top-end young talent that they should be one of the next top-teams in the NHL."

The Oilers however are the kind of team where a large number, maybe even a majority, of non-contrarian observers can only, honestly, say that:

"The Oilers have some nice young talent and they could one day form the core of a top-team in the NHL."

Again, one could say that:

"The Blackhawks are the kind of team that the loss of any two of their top three forwards (lets say Kane, Hossa and Toews) could prevent them from making the play-offs."

And, in turn:

"The Oilers are the kind of team that the loss of any two of their top three forwards (lets say Horcoff, Hemsky and... ummm... Visnovsky? yeeesh) should prevent them from making the play-offs."

The differences in reality and perception are staggering when you work your way through it. Only the requirement to play games, wherein luck CAN giveth without taking away, saves the future year for this team.

Yet the team is near full-Cap for a reason. And the team has sloughed off two years of RFA status for Gagner and Cogliano for a reason. And the team and almost emptied the Hemsky magazine for a reason.

Obviously, the Oilers have executed a plan. So to speak.

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My problem for me, beyond that of following a team constructed in a fashion wherein the results are consistent with that which one would get from a blind and thumbless monkey working with a pail of lego**, is that I don't really know what my plan would be to fix it.

This season can be saved. Swallow a salary or two, sign Hilbert, one from the Malhotra/Betts tree, get another veteran defender and keep Strudwick off the defense... and VOILA! The Oilers should make the play-offs.

But that isn't going to happen, and so the combination of coach approach and luck will have to suffice. Other teams have done so with less so all isn't lost however it does obviate the obvious.

It is only a fix for this year.

Three big problems exist:

1. fewer stupid teams (Snow is better than Milbury and Toronto may finally have a plan);
2. fewer teams with the Cap and budget OR plain old budget space to work deals with; and
3. there has been no evidence of Katz being willing to blow substantial dollars on salary swallows

Options get limited quick when ego, stupidity and money aren't wandering around hand-in-hand.

A couple of extra points:

a. All that talk of a d-man going to Columbus for a forward is just silly, so please, stop it. What we would really want they probably won't give and a one-for-only complicates our surplus forward issue (please re-read points made, #1 through #3, above).
b. Any talk of unloading a front-loaded salary for a Cap/budget exchange is also silly. Stop it. Main issues being - most of front-loads the Oilers have don't supply the Cap pay-off needed to make it worthwhile AND getting to the Cap floor isn't THAT hard

It all makes me think a long term fix is a long ways off.

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Now, despite my protestations, the Heatley deal (if he had deigned to come to Edmonton) may have helped IF it had been:

Penner, Smid, Nilsson, 2010 1st and conditional 2011 1st
FOR
Heatley

At least he would have given us the third piece of a French Connection-lite line and with that in place, with Cogliano, Gagner, Gilbert and Grebeshkov there is some hope that, short-term, this team should be a winner.

As well, one could hope that Souray, et al could have been turned (in time) into other pieces that would have matched the younger core better and maybe a champion could have been developed from that.

However, five assets IS a lot to give up. No question about it.

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Lacking the means to pick up an asset like Heatley there is still some hope that the Oilers could make the lateral moves that still remake a team. Movement in that fashion is harder than it looks (I say without actually knowing), because the first demand of that kind of a remake is this:

Honesty.

Even were a team willing to trade a worthwhile asset - are the Oilers honest enough with themselves to take a slight step back (i.e. trade Souray or Visnovsky) in order to make a big step forward a year or so later?

I am not talking rebuild here. Just straight up maneuvers.

To answer my own question: No.

The Kahbibulin signing really does tell you all you need to know.

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So if one takes fortuitous circumstance and good planning off the table then all one is left with is stupidity and luck.

I don't see this management team having the wherewithal to benefit from stupidity so that leaves luck.

But they don't know that. And what they made is something wherein they can't really see the real faults in it.

So.

If the Oilers manage to avoid serious injury to any key parts (Horcoff, Hemsky, et al), have their young players continue to develop (Gagner, Smid and Cogliano) apace, get the season they need out of their older players and have someone step up and take on the defensive responsibility commensurate with leading a line (like the 3rd line for instance) and anchoring the 2nd penalty-kill unit then I can honestly say:

The Oilers could make the play-offs.

Way to execute a plan boys, way to execute a plan.

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** Does that even make sense? Wit be not my friend this harrowing eve.***

*** There. That's it for Shakespeare now too.****

**** F you too English, I don't need you.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Edmonton Oilers - 2009 Off-Season

I started writing this post a few months ago (end of March or so) and updated to today JUST SHORT of the whole Heatley 'thing'. We know changes are coming so take this post for what it is worth.

Funny thing though - anyone but me notice that NONE of Moreau, Staios or Pisani was involved in that trade?

In some ways this team is quite predictable.

Immediate Notes

The chart shows that Edmonton has, in 2009/10, ~ $45.89 mill of next years Cap space allocated to 11 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie. This leaves 3 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie to be signed.

The 2009/10 Cap has been set at $56.80; the difference being ~ $10.91 mill.

The RFA's

Brule, Reddox, Grebeshkov and Smid

Brodziak, ostensibly, was moved to make space on the roster. Brule is one of the guys who should benefit from that. Given that he couldn't even dominate the AHL I think he should, and does, get a paycut - a 2 year deal in the mill-a-year club would be more than enough.

Without MacT to champion his cause, Reddox is on the bubble. Depending on his remaining waiver eligibility we will be looking at a Roy-type deal where the second year is one-way (~ $650k).

Grebeshkov got the contract he wanted last year (the one I feared) and will get a big raise now. With any luck he is okay with getting less than what Gilbert did but I still don't see a smart agent letting him sign long-term. All signs point to a 3 year deal for $3.5+ million.

Smid is turning into a decent #5 and looks to have #4 upside. If Burrows is willing to sign for 4 years and $8 million there is no reason why Lowe can't try to get Smid into the same kind of deal - maybe even longer. I expect, however, a shorter deal and $1.65 million a year for two years sounds about right.

As with last year, one of the keys for Tambellini will be to keep inflationary effects out of the contracts he signs the players to. For example, a contract for Smid at 1.65 / 1.65 is much better for the Oilers than one at 1.30 / 2.00.

The UFA's

Kotalik, Strudwick and Roloson

Kotalik is a situation player. I'm not sold on him and neither are the Oilers (as they never made an offer apparently) but I expect he gets proffered a contract somewhere. While I do think that Kotalik is a useful player and would have signed him if he was willing to take a paycut (say $2.0 million) he isn't THAT important a player that he can't be replaced fairly easily*.

As it stands I will put a low-level replacement salary in that spot for now.

* However, if Souray is traded then the team would be well-advised to get a big shooter for the powerplay... oh... wait

I like Strudwick (more as a 4th line winger than a 7th defenseman though) but with Tambellini running the show now it isn't a sure thing as to whether or not he gets picked up again. If so, I have him down for another year at the same rate as before.

Roloson probably earned himself an extra contract. Won't be for what he made before however. Sounds like Edmonton has offered something in the $3.0 million range so I will go with that - this franchise has a history of rewarding its veterans.

Cap Flex and Maneuvers

Add it all up and the Oilers sit at ~ $56.84 million in Cap salary next year. The team is over the Cap by some $40k (way to save that 10%).

In terms of Cap flex, as with prior year, I don't see a lot. The easiest thing to do is drop a player or two into the minors and do the old up-n-down trick until waivers become an issue. That should take care of a $1 million or so and allow the team to make Cap.

More probable is that some combination of Penner, Pouliot and Nilsson is traded and the salaries coming back are low enough to allow the team to slide just under the Cap.

Apparently we are an option for Bouwmeester [Editor's Note: Not anymore apparently]? That'll be interesting.

Finally, don't expect to see any of the veteran core of Staios, Moreau and Pisani get traded. I think at least one should go but I don't see it happening. Loyalty trumps all in Oilerville.

For The Defense

With Grebs new contract incoming the defensive core is getting a bit pricey. This is okay if the names are spelled P-r-o-n-g-e-r and N-e-i-d-e-r-m-a-y-e-r or L-i-d-s-t-r-o-m and A-n-y-o-n-e-h-e-p-l-a-y-s-w-i-t-h but that is not the case here. Visnovsky and Souray are both injury prone and neither is elite level so at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in.

Best case scenario for a Souray trade has San Jose getting booted early** and them being interested in a Souray-type to give them a better bomb option on the powerplay (they already have the puck-movers and passers). I wouldn't expect a miraculous return but moving the Cap hit is the main objective regardless.

** Really, I did write that before the play-offs, now if only I had mentioned how Souray would be willing to do to be closer to his family. At least then I would have been right.

Moving Visnovsky presents some of the same problems (big salary, aging player, injury filled past) as moving Souray but moving either of them is preferable to moving Gilbert imo (FTR, I would hate to drop Visnovsky from this defense core).

That leaves Staios and Smid. Staios is the obvious option and I remain in favor of trading him. Fat chance of that. Smid is, to me, the next Scuderi***. As long as he remains cheap why, excepting in a clear upgrade for an on-ice player, move him?

*** To whit, a long time ago I said that one should scout Pittsburgh to see who was the guy to target - Scuderi or Melichar. The reasoning being that both were starting to show decent results and it is always a good thing to get players who other teams have spent time and money molding them into useful players.

Going Forward

The forward group needs to be blown up real good. Or given a hug. Just too many players need to be hidden for this to form a cohesive group.

Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner and Stortini are about it on my list of untouchables while O'Sullivan and Cogliano populate the list of mostly useful and probably keepable.

Note, if Cogliano doesn't have markedly improved face-off numbers next year he either moves to the wing or gets moved.

Moreau and Pisani are probably overpaid for what they deliver but at least, when playing the minutes and position God made them for, they do deliver the goods. Reddox is cut from their mold but it is hard to say whether or not he makes the grade on a non-MacT team.

Penner's asset value has never been lower but with a new coach coming in it is hard to say whether or not he gets moved. I have been one of those who have always thought Penner was a great building block towards a Kovalchuk type deal but after MacT threw him under the bus (multiple times) there is nothing there left to trade.

Right now the better move is to keep him.

Nilsson is inconsistent yet too far down the veterans road to think bright lights await while Pouliot, apparently has decide whether or not he should be a goalie.

Think about all of those players for a second.

Of those listed I see only three that don't require sheltering or special treatment (Horcoff, Hemsky and O'Sullivan), one that is on the cusp (Gagner) and four that are good at what they do (Moreau, Pisani and Stortini). The last group of names belong to players who are 3rd or 4th line guys (at best) and of the rest only one (Hemsky) could qualify as having elite level skill.

Quite a few spots to fill and most of what is filling those spots is questionable (to some degree). And small. Can't ever forget how small this team is.

Except for doughnut boy anyways.

Some of those pieces have to be blowed up. My guess would be that it will start with Pouliot and Nilsson. Penner is an outside shot but again - for what? That said, Tambellini will never be safer than now in trading Penner so you never know.

Going Back

Goaltending remains an issue. Fernandez is out there but once that name gets dropped then real money is on the table. Tyler likes the idea of a Harding offer sheet and I can't say that I'm opposed. I have a feeling we are looking at a higher number than proffered however.

Hard to believe that the Oilers are now wandering the goalie barrenlands on full-time basis. All this time I had hoped we were only visiting.

Summary

Last year I said a lot of good, smart decisions needed to be made to lock in the gains made 2007-08. So much for that.

Yes, MacT misplayed what had been mismanaged and so he, quite rightly, took the fall... I learned a lot from watching Lowe operate the last few years.

I like how Hemsky started to speak up, I like how Gagner grew his game, I like how Peckham emerged I liked how Smid showed some jam more often than not and I like that the team is now, possibly undisputably, Tambellini's.

Yay.

Overpriced contracts remain a huge issue and how Tambellini resolves that issue is the big ?. He has more flex than many give him credit for but wholesale change will remain difficult.

New coach has his work cut out for him.

Here's hoping.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Lombardi to H8

I don't know how smart Deam Lombardi is. Unlike Paul Holmgren, from whom I have seen few misteps, DL has his fair share of 'wtf' moments. My favorite is probably from the 2007 draft when a drop down on picks would have probably let him snag Hickey regardless. Easy money on the table and he left it there.

That said, the guy knows how to cripple a team to set up a draft. More importantly, he knows how to do it consistently. Trading for, and then extending Cloutier's contract was brilliant. Dumping off Labarbera is just more of the same.

To Tank

Wanna tank your team? Best bets are bad goaltending (first choice of the smart GM) and/or bad coaching (first choice of a lot of well meaning GM's).

There are a few things that can derail a good tank job (another post) and for a while there I think Lombardi was looking at just that. Luckily, for him, the trends he had put in place re-asserted themselves and trading Lababera will:

a. help guard against an upswing and
b. increase the risk factors that would seal the tank job

A Trade Deadline Look-Over

The next moment of interest, with Lombardi and his Kings is this:

What will his trade deadline look like?

He has most of the elements needed for a classic tank job trade deadline in place:

1. One respected veteran on expiring contract (O'Donnell);
2. Two depth veterans on expiring contracts (Armstrong & Gauthier); and
3. One mid-range secondary scorer on expiring contract (Calder);

He also has two players who, while they are not performing to expectations, are halfway through their contracts (Preissing and Handzus).

NONE of the players involved have any cachet in the team's marketplace (so no uproar if traded) and two of the players listed are playing, deceptively, important roles for the team.

Royale With Cheese

If Lombardi thinks his draft position is in jeopardy then look for O'Donnell to be traded. Handzus if he can find a taker.

That is what makes it interesting. How comfortable is he that he will get a pick he can live with?

Trading Gauthier and Armstrong would only make the team stronger (and generate very little return regardless) so they should be in LA full season.

That leaves Preissing and Calder. Of the two Calder will be the easiest one to trade and, I suspect, he is gone regardless.

So I will look for those signals at the deadline.

Calder is a goner, sure, but the rest of the deadline deals - if any - will tell the tale of Lombardi's intentions for the 2009 draft.

King Me

That brings me to the final moment of interest in regards to Dean Lombardi. His 2009-10 NHL roster. Once I see that I will know a great deal more about just how smart Lombardi is.

You see, after the 2009 draft his rebuild will have run its course.

Look at his roster. That team has too much quality for it to sit still for another year past this one.

Frolov, Kopitar, Brown and O'Sullivan represent the kind of high-end forward talent other teams, who have better records, would die for and every Oiler fan knows how good Stoll can be if he is restricted to the roles he excels at.

Doughty, Johnson, Hickey and Quincey represent a solid core of under 22's who all have incredible upside. The core d-pairings for this team are set well into the future. I like Harrold as a player and Greene is... playing really well?

The only thing missing on this team is goaltending and with players like Fernandez coming available Lombardi will have little excuse for sitting still. Both with fans and with the players themselves.

2009-10: Tells the Tale

By 2009-10 we will see just what Lombardi brings to the table as a GM. If he picks up an established #1 goaltender and the equivalent of Kurt Sauer this off-season then we know he knows his stuff.

(Trading O'Donnell at the deadline, letting him know he will be bringing him back in the off-season, would just be... smart.)

If he stands pat and brings in Bernier then we know that Lombardi isn't serious about the next year. Even if Bernier blows the doors down it doesn't change my analysis here, just means Lombardi got lucky.

Some very important players get to, or very close to, their free agency years after 2009-10 and the Kings, as an organization, need to both:

- give them the cash they'll want, and
- give them a reason to stay

i.e. Frolov can get $5.5+ million anywhere - why stay with a team that doesn't seem to care?

Winning

There is a time, in every rebuild, where it is time to get serious about winning. The Kings will be in 2009-10.

Signing Hossa would be a nice touch but it isn't that important. A true #1 goalie, a veteran d-man in the 27-30 year range and a couple of proven bottom sixers and the Kings are for real.

And if Lombardi is any good it really should happen just-like-that.

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Time for supper. Have a great evening everyone.

Almost forgot - Anderson deserves it. Good for him.

Edmonton Oilers - A Treatment

Edmonton has some issues. Even if one thinks the roster is strong the salary grid is strained to the breaking point. By that I mean both Cap and budget.

Immediate Notes

The chart shows that Edmonton has, in 2008/09, ~ 36.88 mill of next years Cap space allocated to 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies. This leaves some 3 or 4 forwards and 3 or 4 defensemen left to be signed.

Let's deal with one of those spots right away - the 12th forward (Stortini) will automatically be slotted in at 650k /year. The new total is ~ 37.53 mill for 16 players.

If next years Cap rises the 4 million some are predicting then the new Cap is 54.30. The difference is ~ 16.77 mill.

The RFA's

Stoll, Nilsson, Pitkanen, Grebeshkov and Gilbert

Stoll has had, by many accounts, a very poor season. On the positive side, this will serve to stall the inflationary effect of his 2005-06 season and prevent any RFA sheets from coming his way. On the negative side, he already gets paid a lot. If he remains with the team look for him to get a short-term 'prove-it' contract in the 2.5 mill /year range.

Nilsson, on the other side of the spectrum, has had a great year. He has been put in a position to succeed and has done so. A lot of players don't. Look for his agent to keep him to a 3 year deal that earns him between 2.0 and 2.5 mill /year.

Pitkanen is, despite the questions swirling around his headspace, the most talented d-man we have. He wants the money but doesn't have the counting numbers on his side. Less than 4 million and this is a 2 year deal. I expect 4 years in the 4.25 mill range.

Grebeshkov has justified the trade Lowe made to get him. By a fair bit. Luckily, he isn't one to score a lot. I half expect to see a 3 or 4 year deal in the 2.0 range but wouldn't be surprised if a crafty agent kept it to a cheaper, and shorter deal.

Gilbert is the kind of player coaches can only dream about. Pitkanen might have more talent but Gilbert possesses superior presence of mind. I have him pegged for a Carle style contract but an RFA offer may be his future.

One of the keys for Lowe will be to keep inflationary effects out of the contracts he signs the players to. For example, a contract for Nilsson at 2.15 / 2.25 / 2.35 is much better for the Oilers than one at 1.75 / 2.25 / 2.75.

The UFA's

Glencross and Reasoner

Glencross is this years Hejda. Not the kind of player the Oilers should lose for nothing. I have to think that Lowe that Lowe won't make the same mistake twice. I have to. I fear a Pisani style overpay but have it pegged much lower.

Reasoner will be here if Stoll is not and, I suspect, vice-versa. Reasoner won't be a big money signing. I would offer him a long-term deal at lower dollars but I expect that Lowe will offer a quickie at par.

Cap Flex and Maneuvers

Add it all up and the Oilers sit at ~ 53.58 million in Cap salary next year. This leaves some 700k or so for Lowe to play with.

In terms of Cap flex... I don't see a lot. Who would you not want on the roster? Even if a player or two is sent to Springfield I hope you all noted that I don't have Brodziak on the roster. Nor do I have Pouliot. It's gonna be tight.

So I hope Lowe knows a few maneuvers. He can jerk the Falcon around all he wants but if he wants to make a move later in the season he needs to jettison someone. One of Stoll, Torres or Reasoner is probable. Roloson might be on the outs as well but that assumes JDD is ready.

Not to be too snarky about it but whatever happened to a 10% buffer hmmmm?

Danger Is My Middle Name

The Souray contract is a given. He had better have a great year next year and the next year and the next year and... well... you get the picture. Somewhere along the way his contract has to be worth more than hot press and hot flashes (so sayeth the Hot Oil girls).

How about that Gagner eh? Cogliano? The future IS BRIGHT! Gotta love rookies who outperform expectations! Right! Right? Well, wait until you have to pay them. Gagner better be something extra special because his next contract could cost us Pisani.

No question, the Oilers (and us fans) have a great team forming up. Keeping it together is what will be the problem. Call me a pessimist but Lowe's contract negotiations, to date, haven't led me to believe that this will be handled well.

The next big issue is that of goaltending. Sure, Roloson is done near future. How long, and for how much, will the team be keeping Garon around for? JDD is not tearing up the AHL and Dubnyk still needs a couple years full shot so the ride rests on Garon for now and in 2009-10 his price goes up - regardless of whether or not he can carry the load. And wants to do so here.

Lastly we come to the issue of depth. What issue you say?

Well. While it is true we have an embarrassment of riches on the forward lines right now, try thinking about AFTER we have purged all our proven veteran depth. I see Nash as probable and Vande Velde as mostly possible but after that the difference maker list gets a bit thin (Reddox?). That is a far cry from what we had happen this year.

Do not dismiss the issue of depth lightly. Having 3rd/4th line guys like Pisani, Stoll and Reasoner step up so that guys like Gagner and Cogliano can play against weak opposition is a gift not to be taken for granted.

Summary

The future looks bright. And scary. There are a LOT of good, smart decisions that will need to be made between now and 2010/11 and 2011/12 (the last two Hemsky years) to lock in the gains made this year and work a system that looks a lot more Detroit/New Jersey than it does... well... Edmonton Oilers post 1990.

Edmontons gains this year mean that the team build took a huge leap forward. Because of Cap issues however that leap may involve a rather awkward landing. The overpricing of certain contracts (Souray, Roloson, Penner and Moreau among others) means that Lowe has little or no flex to work with and to get that flex he will have to trade players (Torres, Reasoner and Stoll) he would actually be better off keeping.

It's a high price to pay. My hope is that that is as high as it goes.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Columbus Revisited

Per the comments in another post I said I would take a closer look at the Columbus Blue Jackets. That turned into this.

Immediate Notes

Columbus is, regarding Cap and budget issues, in great shape. I could not detect any real weaknesses in the team salary grid and the one guy who is a LTIR risk doesn't make so much that he would cripple the budget if he went down again next year.

The chart shows that the Blue Jackets have, in 2008/08, ~ 23.35 mill of next years Cap space allocated to 9 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie. This leaves some 3 or 4 forwards, 3 or 4 defensemen and 1 goalie left to be signed.

Let's deal with 1 of those spots right away - the 8th defenseman spot will automatically be slotted in at 550k /year. New total is ~ 23.90 mill for 15 players.

If next year's Cap rises the 4 million some are predicting then the new Cap is 54.30. The difference is ~ 30.40 mill.

If Columbus is a budget team and the projected full budget for last year, ~ 44 mill**, is a safe guideline to use then the difference is ~ 18.10 mill for 15 players.

Cap or budget - this team has some serious coin to spend.

** Start of year player salaries for 2007/08 were in the 41-42 million range. It is safe to assume that the overall budget had an extra couple of million in there for flex.

The RFA's

Leclaire and Picard

Leclaire has had a great season. Other than Hitchcock he is the single biggest factor in the team's success this year. At 24 years old he is closer to UFA status than the team would like and it is a sure bet he gets a long-term deal or an arbitrated deal.

If an aggressive team wanted to make an RFA raid they wouldn't be looking at a guy like Pitkanen (sorry to burst your bubble Oiler fans) - Leclaire is big game and he should attract offers.

Hence, to repeat, he will sign a long-term deal or an arbitrated deal. He doesn't strike me as a 'me me me' type so I expect to see a 4 year deal at $4.5 mill /year in his future. Anything cheaper than that, in excess of 3 years, is an outright steal for Howson.

Picard is still, really, a rookie. I expect that $1.25 mill /year will me more than enough to lock him up for another couple of years.

RFA signings should cost the Blue Jackets an easy $5.75 mill next year.

UFA's

Hainsey, Hejda, Peca, Tarnstrom and Vyborny

Hainsey is the big money guy out of this group. He has finally matured into a dependable blueliner and at age 27 he will attract a LOT of attention if he is allowed to go UFA. I expect Hainsey to repay Hitchcock's mentoring in kind and sign a friendly 5 year deal in the $4.0+ mill /year range.

Hejda is a guy whould should attract scads of attention but won't. Howson should thank his lucky stars everyday that Lowe let this guy go and that, as a defensive defenseman, Hejda will be very cheap in a comparative sense. look for a $2.5 mill /year deal over 3 years.

Peca has had a decent year and as the Cap goes up so should his prospects of gainful employment. If he and Columbus continue working together (and they should given that Hitchcock's system maximizes Peca's declining skill base) look for a 2 year deal in the $2.0 mill /year range.

Tarnstrom and Vyborny are realists. If they stay in North America it will be for the money and neither guy will want to live life as a declining asset nomad. They will take less money to stay in Columbus if the deals are more than a year in length.

Howson needs the depth and the players need the employment. Look for both players to sign 2 year deals in the $1.75 mill /year range.

Cap Flex and Maneuvers

Howson doesn't need Cap flex. He has lots of room in regards to the Cap (~ $12.65 mill or so) and he even has some room in regards to his budget (~ $2.35 mill or so on a $44 mill budget).

Any maneuvers Howson may make are tempered by what he has to give up. Sure he can make a trade for a big money guy this off-season but that would probably mean giving up his 1st round pick or a prospect of value and he just doesn't have enough prospect depth to make that happen.

If Howson doesn't keep any of Peca, Tarnstrom or Vyborny it will be because he lowballs them or because he wants to make a splash (via trade or UFA offer) for someone a lot more expensive.
Note that I do not have Svitov listed because a) my chart is for 12 forwards and b) Svitov is interchangeable with any of number of players on that roster and c) he isn't anything special.

What Money problem?

Well under the Salary Cap the Blue Jackets have no Cap issues. Given the team made a legit play for Richards it seems that Howson can probably pull a budget of $48 mill or so if he can justify it.

Howson's problem isn't that of money. It is that of talent.

Talent and Depth Issues

The single most important elements of that team are Hitchcock and Leclaire. Because of the systems he teaches all Hitchcock needs is good goaltending and Leclaire is currently giving him that. Good for them. Get beyond that though and you have trouble.

Nash and Zherdev are legit talents but neither is a 'carry the team' kind of guy. Zherdev has rebounded nicely and Nash is learning to be more responsible defensively but this team is still crying out for a leader (hence, the interest in Richards).

From the veteran ranks, Peca, Modin and Vyborny are down to their last few years and so the only long-term mainstays are Chimera and Malhotra. Neither guy is a huge difference maker (Peca in his prime or Pisani now) and so the best that they can give is good steady play. Not a bad thing in and of itself but it won't get this team over the hump.

This means that Brule, Fritsche and Picard HAVE to make huge gains in their productivity for this team's forward ranks to improve over the near term.

From the prospect pool the team has a legit, future star in Voracek. Brassard may make waves and someone else might surprise but I won't hold my breath. If Voracek (next year) can progress a la Gagner (this year) then maybe, MAYBE, this team will be a play-off bound club. That is a really big 'IF'.

From the defense the legitimate talent is comprised of Hainsey, Hejda and Klesla. Tarnstrom is a stop-gap and Westcott is Mr. Glass. Russell and Tollefsen will probably progress but each one has a really, really, really long development curve ahead of them.

If Howson is to go shopping in the off-season it is here, on defense, where he needs to make a splash.

Danger! Danger!

There is so little quality depth on this team that if any one piece is not re-signed or replaced by equal value it will take a big step back. Hainsey, Hejda and Picard are must-signs while Peca, Tarnstrom and Vyborny are all should-signs (especially if they come cheaper than my projections).

Another danger the team faces is that of its own budget. One wrong UFA signing and the team is crippled going forward. The Souray signing hurts Edmonton, a lot, but at least Edmonton can easily go to the Cap. Columbus doesn't have that kind of flexibility.

Looking at the UFA list for this off-season I don't see much that would turn this team into something special. Even the decent fits aren't at a stage in their career where they will make this team into something special. I like Langkow, Rolston and Mara.

Zherdev looks to have turned it around. He becomes a RFA in 2009/10. If his maturity level has improved then maybe this won't be an issue but the last thing this team needs is for him to be pressing for a big payday based just on big counting numbers.

Special Note on Vyborny. I am a firm believer that players are motivated by (in order) winning, money, respect, tradition and stability. A guy like Vyborny, a long-time Blue Jacket who earned regard wearing the jersey, should be a guy who retires in that sweater.

If the traditions of a team cannot start with a guy like Vyborny who can they start with?

Summary

This team needs top-end talent in the worst way. I will go so far as to say that the single best thing that could happen to this team would be for it to tank itself into a lotto pick and get a sure bet like Stamkos or Schenn (yes, yes, I know - they could help everyone).

This is why I wasn't too thrilled with the returns Columbus gained on trade deadline day - impact prospects are better than picks.

i.e. Foote and a prospect FOR Shattenkirk is a far better trade than Foote FOR a 1st and a 4th.

I can respect the returns Howson got. I'm just not thrilled by them.

Columbus remains a slow-growth team. Barring a miracle (like Voracek being an out-of-the-box superstar) this team will require the blessings of the injury gods AND a GM who makes no mistakes for it to become a legit play-off contender by, imo, 2010/11.

Final note - kudos to Howson for making a real play for Richards. Picking him up WOULD have been the miracle this team needed. It was ballsy even to try and I hope Columbus fans appreciate it. Howson has made some good moves but it will take some time yet to erase the MacLean legacy.

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Have a great evening everyone.