Are They Really THAT Stupid? (with better math!)

Being stupid, or mistaken, or even mistakenly stupid every now and then is perfectly fine. I, myself, am perfectly good at such things. Being permanently stupid however, especially when one should not be, is something I cannot abide very well at all.

Hence my thanks to kinger. He pointed out a flaw in my last post that, this being a blog, I can now correct.

When calculating the linear nature of the value of cap space as the year progresses I had, mistakenly, used 'games played' as my factor of measurement. The true factor however is 'days in the season'. In the NHL all things salary consider only the regular season so, stealing again from kinger, the number of days is 187.

The cap is, of course, $44 million. The proposed savings rates are 10% and then 5% respectively.

Where before I had this chart:

Game .. 10% ............... Game .. 5%

01 = _4.4 million .......... 01 = 2.2 million
20 = _5.8 million .......... 20 = 2.9 million
41 = _8.8 million .......... 41 = 4.4 million
60 = 16.4 million .......... 60 = 8.2 million

I now have this chart:

Days .. 10% ................ Days .. 5%

_01 = _4.4 million .......... _01 = _2.2 million
_47 = _5.9 million .......... _47 = _2.9 million
_94 = _8.8 million .......... _94 = _4.4 million
146 = 20.0 million .......... 146 = 10.0 million

Now. Bonus time. Simple budget exercise. Let's use the prudent 10%.

Our one assumption is this - we will assume that the team using prudent budgeting starts the season with a more than realistic chance they should make the play-offs. Not a borderline team and not an elite team but a team that should finish comfortably in the top-6 in their conference.

This is important because from this all logic flows. Think about it:

-- A team that isn't ready to compete should be (I won't go into the math - just trust me I am right on this):

---- saving far more than the 5% and
---- front-loading their important contracts and
---- spending dollars on mercenary UFA's they will trade later

-- A team that is elite is usually at or near the cap regardless because they have to spend all they can to compete for the Cup.

-- A team that is touch and go to make the play-offs has to decide if they will act like a team that isn't ready or a team that will make every effort to make the play-offs, thus spending to the cap.

-- Given that a team that is touch and go has no room for prudence it is only the teams in between those scenario's that have the ability to practice the arcane art of deliberately saving 10%.

Basic, simple logic. One who does not follow it is mistaken in their approach. One who does not follow it more than once approaches stupidity.

Our NEW chart follows this paragraph. Our intrepid, yet prudent manager, notices that 50% of the way through the season his team is not performing up to snuff. His team is now a touch-n-go team and that is simply not good enough. He makes a trade for a $3.5 million d-man. He could even be named Zhitnik for example (not a perfect example but it is pretty good and it does serve the point).

Days .. 10%

_01 = _4.4 million .......... _01 = _4.4 million
_47 = _5.9 million .......... _47 = _5.9 million
_94 = _8.8 million .......... _94 = _5.3 million (8.8 - 3.5 = 5.3)
146 = 20.0 million .......... 146 = 12.1 million

So. Still $12.1 million in cap space to spend at the deadline. How about 5%?

Days .. 5%

_01 = _2.2 million .......... _01 = _2.2 million
_47 = _2.9 million .......... _47 = _2.9 million
_94 = _4.4 million .......... _94 = _0.9 million (4.4 - 3.5 = 0.9)
146 = 10.0 million .......... 146 = _2.0 million

Interesting isn't it? 5% is quite serviceable all said and done. Not great because the manager would have to dump salary at the deadline to get a higher salaried player BUT it is still serviceable.

The perfect number is (for a cap of $44 million), believe it or not, ~ 6%.

Days .. 6%

_01 = _2.64 million .......... _01 = 2.64 million
_47 = _3.53 million .......... _47 = 3.53 million
_94 = _5.31 million .......... _94 = 1.81 million
146 = 12.04 million .......... 146 = 4.06 million

10% remains... stupid. 6% is more than enough to add significant salary and provide for injury replacements from the minors. With the cap going up to $48 million or so next year the 6% figure is probably still worthwhile.

Important to note - even for a team that figures it is a lock for the play-offs - the cap/payroll $ should have been no less than $41.36 million (using the 6% strategy).

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Have a great evening everyone.