Tuesday, 1 May 2007

One Step Forward and Two Steps Back - OR -

One Step Back and Two Forward?

Columbus is horribly overpaying Fedorov NOT because he isn't as good as his paycheque (he isn't - but not as much as many think) but because the young guys on the team are nowhere near ready. Fedorov has one year left at $6.08 mill/yr.

Montreal is tired of Samsonov and is looking at buying him out. Samsonov has one year left at $3.525 mill/yr.

Columbus has the #7 overall pick.

Montreal has the #12 overall pick.

Do you make an offer to Gainey for Samsonov? Say... Samsonov and the 12th for the Anaheim pick?

Do you make an offer for Fedorov? Say... Fedorov, 7th overall and a 3rd rounder for Reasoner & the Anaheim pick?

Do you make both offers (substituting something else for the Anaheim picK - may JF Jacques) knowing that Fedorov can play defense and PP point?

Is Samsonov really that bad now or is he a rebound waiting to happen? Is Samsonov, at $3.525 and a 12th overall (Esposito) less a 26th-30th pick better than Sykora at $2.75?

Is hyper-aggressive team building the route to follow and is it really only money? What if you can squeeze an extra 4th rounder out of each deal?

I think it is / would be an amazing gamble to take. Brass balls needed. I also think it isn't half as bad a gamble as it looks on the face of it. Especially if a lot of the best UFA's never reach July 1st (Phillips, Salo and more to come).

Given what some are ready to give up for Redden I have to think that if he doesn't agree to sign an extension prior to trade the Fedorov deal represents better value. Maybe even 'much' better.


Have a great evening everyone.


namflashback said...

Both those deals fit into the category of good "1 year insurance" deals that have a pretty high likelihood of a positive benefit, without hampering flexibility in the long-term.

The following year's UFA crop is way more exciting -- so why not save the flexibility for then.

Dress 7 D every night, with Fedorov as a PP specialist on D, take a few regular ES shifts at F then run the other 6 D in normal pairs.

Sammy-Hemsky we know are pretty dynamic on PP and with shelter. Run Pouliout with them. Let Torres-Stoll-Pisani or Moreau-Horcoff-Thoresen take on the tough stuff.

Sammy-Horcoff at 4 on 4 was a great chemistry combo too.

YKOil said...

I like the idea of aggressive team building and the more I think about the two deals the more I like them.

It isn't very often that there is a chance for a team to make those kind of maneuvers BUT with the Cap the way it is a team that is willing to spend CAN make big moves like those I suggested.

And as long as that team make smart signings of the players that matter then THAT team will increase its strength exponentially.

Think about it further - even if the team struggles again Lowe could still trade Samsonov and/or Fedorov at the deadline for other assets. They were never key cogs on the team so it isn't like they will be missed now is it?

On the plus side - IF Sammy and Fedorov bounce back, even a little (and in Fedorov's case this is probable imo), the Oilers make the play-offs.

PunjabiOil said...

I would do the first deal without looking back - but I can't see Montreal doing that. Especially since they can send him down to the minors and have him not count on the cap.

The Columbus deal is a bit more questionable. Depends how Lowe views this upcoming season - if he's not serious about the playoffs, then yeah, do the deal, and with the better crop of UFA's in the summer of '08, go hard then....perhaps even move Federov at the deadline and save 1.5M.

YKOil said...

Agreed. The Montreal deal depends in large part on money, as in: does Montreal want to spend $3.525 million on bupkus? Hard to say.

Montreal is like Edmonton - they are loaded and can spend to the max quite easily. They may still do the deal but it may take a little more than just the Anaheim 1st.

Agreed as well on the Fedorov deal. It is more questionable. However I am firm on trading Fedorov (and Samsonov if applicable) at the deadline - save the cash and get some picks/prospects.

ONLY way I keep 'mercenary' non-core players on the roster is if I am solidly in the play-offs at the deadline and they have been crucial to that success.

Mr DeBakey said...

This is why reading Oiler blogs is so damn interesting.

Nobody paid to comment on the Oilers would ever come up with stuff like this.

Stick both Fedorov & Samsonov on a Oiler roster spreadsheet
You get to $44 Million pretty fast and you have several question marks on the roster.

Also, I don't see the Samsonov thing working so well for Montreal.

But Fedorov seems to work both ways.
Hell, Columbus could sign a whole UFA line - Fedotenko-Stefan-Johnson
for under $6 Million.
And Fedorov would be a better utility guy than Petersen.
No really, its true

YKOil said...

Yep. Salary goes up pretty quick.

Two things would need to happen from the Oilers side to make this work:

1. Dump the 'save-10%-of-budget-for-emergencies' and go to a 5% figure, and

2. Trade Lupul and don't get much salary back.