First of all - kudos to Irish Blues (of HF and Salary Cap fame) as I cribbed the first part of this from one of his HF posts (I added a bit and made a correction or two).
I grabbed it because it interested me (of course) - for all the talk given to teams trading up in the draft it is quite rare for anyone to ever really quantify the league's history of it.
This data-set only:
-- deals with Entry Draft years 2001 through 2006, and
-- only deals with 1st round picks, and
-- does not deal with exclusive 'pick-for-player' trades, and
-- may not be exhaustive
yet is still illuminating for all of that. Enjoy.
The Trades
2001
-- CAL tr p. #11 to PHO for p. #14 & 41
-- BOS tr p. #13 to EDM for p. #19 (per Guerin trade) **
-- PHI tr p. #23 to OTT for p. #27 & 225 plus a 2nd-rnd pick in '02
-- NJD tr p. #24 to FLO for p. #44 & 48 (the STL pick per Steven's tampering case)
-- WAS tr p. #25 plus R. Zednik & J. Bulis to MON for p. #61 plus T. Linden and D. Zubrus **
2002
-- FLO tr p. # 1 to CBJ for p. # 3 plus the right to swap 1st-rnd picks in '03
-- TAM tr p. # 4 to PHI for p. #34 & 52 plus R. Fedotenko
-- CAL tr p. # 9 to FLO for p. #10 & 99
-- DAL tr p. #13 to WAS for p. #26 & 42 plus a 3rd-rnd pick in '03
-- EDM tr p. #14 to MON for p. #15 & 245
-- VAN tr p. #17 plus a 3rd-rnd pick in '03 to WAS for p. #55 plus T. Linden **
-- CBJ tr p. #20 to BUF for p. #30 plus M. Pandolfo
-- CBJ tr p. #30 to ATL for p. #41 & 96
2003
-- FLO tr p. #1 & 73 to PIT for p. #3 & 55 plus M. Samuelsson
-- BOS tr p. #16 to SJS for p. #21, 66 & 103
-- EDM tr p. #17 to NJD for p. #22 & 68
-- TAM tr p. #25 to FLO for p. #34, 41 & 192
-- DAL tr p. #28 to ANA for p. #36 & 54
2004
-- CAL tr p. #19 & 247 to NYR for p. #24 & 46
-- DAL tr p. #20 to NJD for p. #22 & 88
-- DAL tr p. #22 & 153 to SJS for p. #28, 52 & 91
2005
-- ATL tr p. # 8 to SJS for p. #12, 49, & 207
-- ATL tr p. #12 to NYR for p. #16 & 41
-- PHI tr p. #20 to FLO for p. #29 plus a 2nd-rnd pick in '06
-- COL tr p. #27 to WAS for p. #47 & 52
2006
-- MON tr p. #16 to SJS for p. #20 & 53
-- MIN tr p. #17 plus P. O'Sullivan to LAK for P. Demitra **
-- NJD tr p. #25 to STL for p. #30 & 77
A Data Table
Trades marked ** are designated as, primarily, about the player being traded and are not considered as a classic 'move-up-in-the-draft' trade for our purposes. So... NOT including trades marked ** we have:
- 6 years showing
- 21 (24) teams making
- 24 (28) trades involving
- 79 (87) draft picks and
- 3 (10) players
priceless?
TEAM ... # ... YRS .. TUP .. TDN
ANA .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
ATL .... 3 .... 2 .... 1 .... 2
BOS .... 1 .... 1 .... . .... 1
BUF .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
CAL .... 3 .... 3 .... . .... 3
COL .... 1 .... 1 .... . .... 1
CBJ .... 3 .... 1 .... 1 .... 2
DAL .... 4 .... 3 .... . .... 4
EDM .... 2 .... 2 .... . .... 2
FLO .... 6 .... 4 .... 4 .... 2
MON .... 2 .... 2 .... 1 .... 1
NJD .... 4 .... 4 .... 2 .... 2
NYR .... 2 .... 2 .... 2 ....
OTT .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
PHI .... 3 .... 3 .... 1 .... 2
PHO .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
PIT .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
SJS .... 4 .... 4 .... 4 ....
STL .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
TAM .... 2 .... 2 .... . .... 2
WAS .... 2 .... 2 .... 2 ....
Teams that haven't made this kind of trade within the 1st round over the last 6 years include: Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nashville, New York Islanders, Toronto and Vancouver.
Some Basic Analysis
If we take out the 2005 and 2006 years (too early yet), the player based trades and the top-5 pick trades, NHL teams made 15 trades JUST to get the guy they really, really wanted.
Given the performance of the guy they moved up to get, the early winners are:
2001 .. 11 .. PHO .. Sjostrom
2001 .. 23 .. OTT .. Gleason
2001 .. 24 .. FLO .. Krajicek
2002 .. 13 .. WAS .. Semin
2002 .. 14 .. MON .. Higgins
2002 .. 30 .. ATL .. Slater
2003 .. 16 .. SJS .. Bernier
2003 .. 17 .. NJD .. Parise
2003 .. 28 .. ANA .. Perry
2004 .. 20 .. NJD .. Zajac
Roughly 67%, and if Paille (BUF '02 - #20) and Stewart (FLO '03 - #25) make some noise the numbers get better.
Barring the noted deficiencies (below) fortune does seem to favor the 'bold'.
At least the 'bold' with good scouting departments anyways.
No question, if your scouting department is on the ball then trading up can be a very profitable strategy. There may have been a better player chosen later but at the very least the odds of drafting a future roster player go way up.
DEFICIENCY NOTES:
-- some drafts WERE deep in talent so trading up may have been of marginal gain, and
-- there is no analysis done for teams that dropped down and took extra picks, and
-- the data-set is small
Miscellanea
The most active team has been Florida. Florida has traded picks 6 times over 4 different years. In 2002 they traded both directions WITHIN the top-10 picks (down to get Bouwmeester at #3 and then up to get Taticek at #9).
The most hyper-aggressive team has been San Jose. Every year, from 2003 to 2006, they have moved up in the draft to get the player they want (2003: Bernier, 2004: Kaspar, 2005: Setoguchi, 2006: Wishart). Pure confidence right there.
The picks in the top-5 overall, of any given draft year, were traded 5 times (3 if you take away half of the #1 for #3 swaps). The number one pick was ONLY traded when a top-3 pick was coming back the other way - getting a #1 overall is TOUGH.
The award for 'best return on a one-pick drop' goes to Calgary ('02). They traded the #9 pick to Florida for #'s 10 and 99. The award for 'worst return on a one-pick drop' goes to Edmonton the same year. They traded the #14 to Montreal for the #'s 15 and 245.
Those were also, oddly enough, the only one-pick drop trades to occur over the 6 years.
The biggest move belongs to Washington ('05) as they jumped up 20 spots to pick #27. They traded picks #47 and 52 to get there. Of course: that is only considering trades NOT involving players.
Excepting the highest level picks, the value of a roster player appears greater than that of a draft pick.
There were 5 trades where a team picked up 3 draft picks in return for trading down. They were: Edmonton ('01), Dallas ('02), Boston ('03), Tampa Bay ('03) and Atlanta ('05). Hard to say who got the best deal as none of those 3-for-1's look THAT good or THAT bad.
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Have a great evening everyone.
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