Saturday, 9 January 2010

Trades (and a little NBA stuff)

(just to prove I have it)


Has indicated he's okay if he sees a plane ticket he likes. West coast kind of guy.

- be shocked if Phoenix makes the move (too smart there)
- be surprised if Anaheim makes a move (team fit is poor - may be a replacement for Nieds?)
- be surprised if San Jose makes a move (team fit is poor and Blake is playing well)
- be expecting to see a low-ball bid from Los Angeles (Lombardi is pretty smart)
- be expecting to see a deal made with Dallas (best combo of need, talent to offer, Cap space and budget flex)

As I mentioned elsewhere I like the idea of:

Benn, Skrastins and 1st
Souray and ??


That NBA Stuff

Word is that Houston wants to make a big push for Bosh.

Okay. Fine.

Bosh (PF), Turkoglu (SF) and Calderon (PG)
McGrady (SG), Ariza (SF) and Scola (PF)

Salaries work per the trade machine but a trade like this never happens - trading Bosh means a rethink of the entire team and such a rethink means a restart. Hence the expiring contracts of McGrady and the now, not needed, contracts of Turkoglu and Calderon.

Next year the rotation is: Jack, DeRozan, Ariza, Scola (if re-signed) and Bargnani

Lottery - but not a bad place to start from. Drop in salary would be amazing.


Don't mind the talk on trading Calderon. Two best trades I see there:

Calderon and DeRozan (or Wright, if god blows sunshine up BC's ass)

Calderon and Wright
Morrison, Vujacic, Farmar, $3 million cash and a pick

This trade has been out there for a while and many serious pundits say LA wouldn't do it Vujacic was involved. Fair enough. Morrison is an expiring contract in 2010 while Vujacic's expires in 2011.

Vujacic's contract is costly, no way around it, but in 2011 the Raptors would have 3 expiring contracts (Vujacic, Evans and Banks) cumulatively worth just over $15 million - nice set of trade chips to have.

NBA... a pretty wild place to GM, even when stuck in the armchair.


Have a great evening everyone.


Scott Reynolds said...

Would you be willing to part with Souray for little more than cap space? So if LA offers, say, Randy Jones in return, what kind of pick(s) would you need to get back to make a deal?

misfit said...

The problem is, what do you do with that cap space? There's 3 reasons I can see for making a salary dump trade

1. To save money
2. You're going to be over the cap if you don't
3. You plan to use that money on someone else, either through trade or free agency.

- 1 isn't going to be a problem with this team. Katz can afford to spend to the cap and I think that's exactly what he'll continue to do.
- I don't think we're in any real danger of going over the cap. If we are, it shouldn't be that much, and cap space can be found in better ways than trading Souray.

That leaves the 3rd option, and really only the 1st part of that point since UFAs aren't exactly lining up to sign in Edmonton. Especially the ones who'll be getting those $~5M contracts.

YKOil said...


Here is the trick - don't get pushed around.

misfit is correct, Katz can swallow a salary or two if he wants so it becomes a matter of whether or not he wants.

Trading a viable asset like Souray requires more coming back than just cap space. Dumping a Moreau however would be a different story.

Jones coming back is almost a given in a Souray trade w/LA. A 1st rounder would also be a given. After that I would try to get Voynov.

Wouldn't be surprised if we got Johnson straight up however.


misfit said...

I've been against the Souray signing from the start, but I'd personally rather they didn't move him at all. Of course, something's got to give on the blueline. We've got a 3rd defense pair that takes up just under $6M of our total cap space.

Scott Reynolds said...

So if I am hearing you correctly, you would be after a minimum of two premium assets in the form of picks, prospects and young NHL players or one +++ asset (Johnson wouldn't be it but surely, say, Doughty straight up would be more than enough, not that it's a possibility). If so, I agree that this is a good rule of thumb. I do hope they pull the trigger on that kind of package if possible, though only after they decide whether they're going to build up a team with a core in the (current age) 18-20 range or in the 24-26 range. Not that it couldn't be a bit of both.

YKOil said...

Depends on how you look at it. If Lombardi thinks Souray brings enough to the table (which I doubt given that Souray's strengths are PP and PK work - where LA currently ranks 7th and 18th) then maybe the bet is that:

a) Souray brings them into the 3rd round of the play-offs and
b) O'Donnell is getting old

LA's first rounder may not be anywhere near a premium asset (currently 19th overall) by the end of the year.

Also - I don't see Jones as an asset as of yet - the NHL is nowhere near the NBA in terms of deeming expiring contracts an 'asset'.

All that said - LA is a great fit in terms of what we want but much less so in terms of what they would be willing to give.

The bet becomes this: given that their 1st rounder and Voynov are NOT their prime assets (those being Doughty, Schenn, Hickey, etc) then what has to be added, by Edmonton, to make the Souray trade work. Obviously some of that is taking on the salary that is Jones.

Could we get one +++ asset? Maybe, but Lombardi would REALLY have to value Souray for one of those to free up. Maybe Frolov, in a package, if Lombardi already knows he isn't coming back.