Some Recent Past

This is a picture of my wife's belly, from a few weeks ago, when she was pregnant. I started writing this post about then, but things got a little busy and so, press conference aside, I am just getting to posting it now.

Her, and my boy, are well and healthy and beautiful beyond all reason. For me, at least, it has been a great off-season.

:-)

UNLIKE

Mr. Tambellini I guess.

So... let me be clear: Dany Heatley is a top-5 LW in the NHL.

He has a willingness to shoot and the ability to shoot well, he has skating speed and the ability to use that speed well, he has just enough size, plays a smart enough game, can handle the puck passingly well and can make a pass when needed. His focus is on the attack and it is in the offensive zone that he puts his effort; his powerplay game is quite good.

While he isn't a complete dodger or quitter, no one will ever confuse him for a hitter, mucker, crasher or glue guy and there is nothing in his game that suggests he is capable of imposing his will on a game when needed. Even if he has the brains for the defensive game there is no indication that he wants to play it at a level above that of 'meh'.

To be fair, his point production is high enough, and his skills good enough, that most of his deficiencies are covered. Quite well at that. As a gun for hire he is an excellent choice.

Teamed with Horcoff and Hemsky, at regular strength, he should do very well as all three players have interlocking skill sets.

A power-play unit of Heatley, Horcoff, Hemsky, Souray and any one of Visnovsky, Gilbert or Grebeshkov should be both effective and efficient as the mix of shooters and passers is excellent. Only weakness I see here is that there aren't any true puck wizards in the group (a la Kovalev). There are quite a few puck movers however and the other skill sets are off the charts when considered in their combination(s).

Edmonton is a better team with Heatley on the roster.

But how you get there, and what it means once you are there, matters.

Money

In terms of paycheque, Heatley is an overpay.

As I have mentioned in an earlier post, for the money he makes, Heatley HAS to perform to expectation to earn that paycheque. I would, conservatively, put 'expectation' at:

- point-per-game
- positive corsi
- can tilt the ice (i.e. as above but allow for zone starts)
- positive +/- EV vs good competition
- can carry the line (i.e. as above but allow for linemates)
- team leader or glue guy
- difference maker on pp or pk (compared to league and not to team)

Any deficiency in one area requires more from others.

So while Heatley did cover most of those bets in 2008-09 he failed on at least two of them (ppg and carry the line - Alfredsson is the difference maker there) and we don't know about the team leader/glue guy thing*.

How often do you think he will cover those bets in future years?

Yeah. I am thinking that the 'team leader' option is a non-starter at this point.

Talent

Cogliano is a superb young talent, Penner should be and Smid will be okay.

Penner is, like Heatley, an overpay. I expect to see a good season out of him next season (the redemption effort) and the second season after that (the contract effort) but, given that he will be an UFA after his current contract there is little value in keeping a guy who only plays for the contract.**

On the flipside it is hard to see where Cogliano and Smid's work won't be a bargain next year. They will have had their education paid for by Edmonton and Ottawa would then get to cash in on the resulting performance-to-contract differential.

Ideally a trade should return a break-even or a win result. Peckham may help us forget about Smid but I don't see where anyone will be stepping up and replacing Cogliano.

Heatley's performance should exceed that of the parts going the other way but from where I sit the trade equation, just in terms of talent, isn't guaranteed. Cogliano will get better and the extent to which that happens can change everything.

I have no urge to make Bryan Murray look smart.

Integrity

Heatley's integrity has been, quite rightly, been questioned in many a forum. Fair enough.

What is troubling for me is the fact that this isn't a matter of a man misunderstood or needing a helping hand - I am quite willing to make a call based on granting second chances (see also: 1985 - MacTavish, Craig) - this is a matter of owning it.

I simply don't believe that Heatley takes full ownership of the decisions he makes. A listing of his 'questionable decisions made' is long, and undistinguished, but for my purposes it is as simple as not being able to live up to a contract signed, yet still acting as if you are owed.

Human frailty is a condition all owned, but I find it more forgivable in some. How empty the vessel?

Which brings me to the Oilers. The team and the management. This team has been leaking integrity for a long time.

As detestable as I found Mike Comrie's actions, Lowe's response did not do the team any favors. What has followed since has been a gradual transformation of team image from that of scrappy-underdog-in-a-hockey-mad-town to that of doomed-to-fail-roster-in-an-undesirable-destination.

The Nylander incident is/was, in and of itself, the kind of thing that should never reflect poorly on a team. Yet, as a sequence of events unfold themselves (Comrie, Pronger, Smyth, Nylander, etc), a narrative is formed.

"No? Just wait. Word gets around. The Sisters have taken a real shine to you, yes they have. Especially Bogs."

The Heatley situation, especially the begging in Kelowna, is one that pretty much confirmed this team as everyone's bitch.

Stop It

I don't know what else to say about this situation. Team building isn't THAT hard. If the team already has good fundamentals just reduce risk wherever possible and you'll pretty much have the situation handled.

Need a player to fill a spot that is important but not critical? Sign what you need or trade for it.

Screwed up your roster/salary cap equation? Swallow it or trade it away.

Too many rookie's? Play them fewer minutes or replace with veterans.

If you already have serviceable parts in place a competitive roster isn't rocket science. It only gets hard when:

a) you make it hard

i.e. by trying to shoe-horn a superstar onto the roster

b) circumstance is out of your control.

i.e. when there aren't any 'good' 3rd line centers available

c) or your mistakes all coalesce at the same time

i.e. probably the Oilers Cap situation 2010-11

d) it is time to make the push or time to blow it up

i.e. situations that require rock-solid planning and/or some 'luck'*** in order to ensure success in dealing with them

And even then, in the case of 'c' - there are always solutions out there (see also: New Jersey Devils 2005-06).

So. Please. Guys. Stop it.

Stop trying to be brilliant (adding a superstar won't solve all your problems) and just start doing that which just makes sense (adding a veteran 3rd line center will help win games).

Stop trying to win the Cup yesterday (there is no Messier on this team) and just try to win those games that come with the morrow (there is a great guy named Horcoff who needs more support).

Stop trying to find Waldo (Smid is not a winger and Pisani is not a center) and instead just try to work with what is obvious (Pouliot should be playing at center and Cogliano should be playing on the wing while he tries to find the handle on the dot).

We'll all be happier for it.

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Quick note on Khabibulin. Don't like it.

Okay. One more comment on Khabibulin (kinda).

As much as I (almost) always agree with LT I do recall he said at one point that Khabibulin would be tradeable later on in his contract.

Not at 3.75 / 3.75 / 3.75 / 3.75 he won't be.

Were the contract shaped 8.00 / 4.00 / 2.00 / 1.00 then maybe.

Sorry LT.

The $1.40 million contract for Biron is freakin' amazing.

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* I believe he was an Assistant Captain but I don't know if that letter came via the lockerroom or the contract.

** There is nothing wrong with a condottiere who is actually willing to fight the war for which he was hired. Given his cost of contract and acquisition, the selling of Penner will hurt but his contract is one that has to go.

*** As in, the trade for Goring leading, almost directly, to a string of 4 Stanley Cup victories... yeah... sharp trade but they did get a little lucky there.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Sad

Oiler team management is screwed loose. And not in the good way. The Heatley trade, as proposed, is one of the worst I imagined.

Again and again and again we see this team's management transfer ALL of the risk onto the home team.

On a day where Calgary signs a bedrock defenseman for the next 5 years - for all of the cost of a Cameron Abney (think about that for a second) - the Oilers offer up 5 years of development time, SPENT ON TWO QUALITY PROSPECTS, and one middling-poor-but-the-jury-is-out contract for an overpaid, if legit, sniper who has now whined his way out of two different teams.

Remember when Souray signed? Back then I said all the risk was on Edmonton - why? Because Souray HAD to have a career year, pretty much every year, just to be worth his contract. It was the same story with Penner - but with him it was worse because of the assets given up to sign him.

Not an average year.

Not an okay year.

Not a good year.

No.

A freakin' GREAT year.

We sit at 0 for 2 for Penner and 1 for 2 on Souray so far. On a roll baby! On a roll!

How well would Heatley have to play for the Oilers to earn back the $7.5 million in salary AND the loss Cogliano AND Smid (and even Penner for that matter)?

He scored 72 points last year and wasn't all that great defensively (less Alfredsson anyways). Horcoff may have only scored 53 pts last year but we know he, at least, was carrying the rest of the forward core around on his back.

Why are so many of the Oiler faithful peeved at Horcoff? Because at $5.5 million he needs to be both great defensively AND score 65+ pts (my number) to make the optics work. Horcoff gets 25 goals and 40 assists and I promise few would be complain about his pay. As understandable as it is, 53 pts from Horcoff both looks bad and IS bad.

Does Horcoff need a career year every year? No. But he does need a good-to-excellent one.

As with Souray, and Penner before him, Heatley's price would require him to have phenomenal years every year. And since we know he can't carry a team, he is a complementary player afterall, that also means Horcoff and Hemsky or Gagner (if going pure soft minutes outscoring line) HAVE to remain healthy (who else would he play with?).

The risk is all on the Oilers in this one. Again.

Do that enough times and a team becomes the New York Rangers (Hey! I know! Let's sign Kamensky - we'll be GREAT!).

It's bad enough to watch Pronger and Smyth walk for, basically, nada. To then overpay for Penner and Heatley is just too much. THINK ABOUT THOSE FOUR NAMES. Can you see the difference? This team is sending out quality for dross (even if it is shiny shyte like Heatley) on a regular basis.

Had it just been Penner, Nilsson and Smid in the trade, I could have swallowed my dislike. But two quality prospects? Nuts to that. Didn't Ottawa want a puck moving defenseman? Smid?

That Heatley would then turn around and take time to 'think' about it only accentuates the hilarity.

Here is the thing. Players don't want to come here? Fair enough.

At what point in time do we realize that maybe it isn't the city that is to blame? Maybe, just maybe, players, and their agents, know that a winner won't be built here anytime soon. Forget Detroit. This group can't even compare to Columbus.

At what point in time do we maybe realize that team management is a joke.

And everyone knows it.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Edmonton Oilers - 2009 Off-Season

I started writing this post a few months ago (end of March or so) and updated to today JUST SHORT of the whole Heatley 'thing'. We know changes are coming so take this post for what it is worth.

Funny thing though - anyone but me notice that NONE of Moreau, Staios or Pisani was involved in that trade?

In some ways this team is quite predictable.

Immediate Notes

The chart shows that Edmonton has, in 2009/10, ~ $45.89 mill of next years Cap space allocated to 11 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie. This leaves 3 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie to be signed.

The 2009/10 Cap has been set at $56.80; the difference being ~ $10.91 mill.

The RFA's

Brule, Reddox, Grebeshkov and Smid

Brodziak, ostensibly, was moved to make space on the roster. Brule is one of the guys who should benefit from that. Given that he couldn't even dominate the AHL I think he should, and does, get a paycut - a 2 year deal in the mill-a-year club would be more than enough.

Without MacT to champion his cause, Reddox is on the bubble. Depending on his remaining waiver eligibility we will be looking at a Roy-type deal where the second year is one-way (~ $650k).

Grebeshkov got the contract he wanted last year (the one I feared) and will get a big raise now. With any luck he is okay with getting less than what Gilbert did but I still don't see a smart agent letting him sign long-term. All signs point to a 3 year deal for $3.5+ million.

Smid is turning into a decent #5 and looks to have #4 upside. If Burrows is willing to sign for 4 years and $8 million there is no reason why Lowe can't try to get Smid into the same kind of deal - maybe even longer. I expect, however, a shorter deal and $1.65 million a year for two years sounds about right.

As with last year, one of the keys for Tambellini will be to keep inflationary effects out of the contracts he signs the players to. For example, a contract for Smid at 1.65 / 1.65 is much better for the Oilers than one at 1.30 / 2.00.

The UFA's

Kotalik, Strudwick and Roloson

Kotalik is a situation player. I'm not sold on him and neither are the Oilers (as they never made an offer apparently) but I expect he gets proffered a contract somewhere. While I do think that Kotalik is a useful player and would have signed him if he was willing to take a paycut (say $2.0 million) he isn't THAT important a player that he can't be replaced fairly easily*.

As it stands I will put a low-level replacement salary in that spot for now.

* However, if Souray is traded then the team would be well-advised to get a big shooter for the powerplay... oh... wait

I like Strudwick (more as a 4th line winger than a 7th defenseman though) but with Tambellini running the show now it isn't a sure thing as to whether or not he gets picked up again. If so, I have him down for another year at the same rate as before.

Roloson probably earned himself an extra contract. Won't be for what he made before however. Sounds like Edmonton has offered something in the $3.0 million range so I will go with that - this franchise has a history of rewarding its veterans.

Cap Flex and Maneuvers

Add it all up and the Oilers sit at ~ $56.84 million in Cap salary next year. The team is over the Cap by some $40k (way to save that 10%).

In terms of Cap flex, as with prior year, I don't see a lot. The easiest thing to do is drop a player or two into the minors and do the old up-n-down trick until waivers become an issue. That should take care of a $1 million or so and allow the team to make Cap.

More probable is that some combination of Penner, Pouliot and Nilsson is traded and the salaries coming back are low enough to allow the team to slide just under the Cap.

Apparently we are an option for Bouwmeester [Editor's Note: Not anymore apparently]? That'll be interesting.

Finally, don't expect to see any of the veteran core of Staios, Moreau and Pisani get traded. I think at least one should go but I don't see it happening. Loyalty trumps all in Oilerville.

For The Defense

With Grebs new contract incoming the defensive core is getting a bit pricey. This is okay if the names are spelled P-r-o-n-g-e-r and N-e-i-d-e-r-m-a-y-e-r or L-i-d-s-t-r-o-m and A-n-y-o-n-e-h-e-p-l-a-y-s-w-i-t-h but that is not the case here. Visnovsky and Souray are both injury prone and neither is elite level so at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in.

Best case scenario for a Souray trade has San Jose getting booted early** and them being interested in a Souray-type to give them a better bomb option on the powerplay (they already have the puck-movers and passers). I wouldn't expect a miraculous return but moving the Cap hit is the main objective regardless.

** Really, I did write that before the play-offs, now if only I had mentioned how Souray would be willing to do to be closer to his family. At least then I would have been right.

Moving Visnovsky presents some of the same problems (big salary, aging player, injury filled past) as moving Souray but moving either of them is preferable to moving Gilbert imo (FTR, I would hate to drop Visnovsky from this defense core).

That leaves Staios and Smid. Staios is the obvious option and I remain in favor of trading him. Fat chance of that. Smid is, to me, the next Scuderi***. As long as he remains cheap why, excepting in a clear upgrade for an on-ice player, move him?

*** To whit, a long time ago I said that one should scout Pittsburgh to see who was the guy to target - Scuderi or Melichar. The reasoning being that both were starting to show decent results and it is always a good thing to get players who other teams have spent time and money molding them into useful players.

Going Forward

The forward group needs to be blown up real good. Or given a hug. Just too many players need to be hidden for this to form a cohesive group.

Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner and Stortini are about it on my list of untouchables while O'Sullivan and Cogliano populate the list of mostly useful and probably keepable.

Note, if Cogliano doesn't have markedly improved face-off numbers next year he either moves to the wing or gets moved.

Moreau and Pisani are probably overpaid for what they deliver but at least, when playing the minutes and position God made them for, they do deliver the goods. Reddox is cut from their mold but it is hard to say whether or not he makes the grade on a non-MacT team.

Penner's asset value has never been lower but with a new coach coming in it is hard to say whether or not he gets moved. I have been one of those who have always thought Penner was a great building block towards a Kovalchuk type deal but after MacT threw him under the bus (multiple times) there is nothing there left to trade.

Right now the better move is to keep him.

Nilsson is inconsistent yet too far down the veterans road to think bright lights await while Pouliot, apparently has decide whether or not he should be a goalie.

Think about all of those players for a second.

Of those listed I see only three that don't require sheltering or special treatment (Horcoff, Hemsky and O'Sullivan), one that is on the cusp (Gagner) and four that are good at what they do (Moreau, Pisani and Stortini). The last group of names belong to players who are 3rd or 4th line guys (at best) and of the rest only one (Hemsky) could qualify as having elite level skill.

Quite a few spots to fill and most of what is filling those spots is questionable (to some degree). And small. Can't ever forget how small this team is.

Except for doughnut boy anyways.

Some of those pieces have to be blowed up. My guess would be that it will start with Pouliot and Nilsson. Penner is an outside shot but again - for what? That said, Tambellini will never be safer than now in trading Penner so you never know.

Going Back

Goaltending remains an issue. Fernandez is out there but once that name gets dropped then real money is on the table. Tyler likes the idea of a Harding offer sheet and I can't say that I'm opposed. I have a feeling we are looking at a higher number than proffered however.

Hard to believe that the Oilers are now wandering the goalie barrenlands on full-time basis. All this time I had hoped we were only visiting.

Summary

Last year I said a lot of good, smart decisions needed to be made to lock in the gains made 2007-08. So much for that.

Yes, MacT misplayed what had been mismanaged and so he, quite rightly, took the fall... I learned a lot from watching Lowe operate the last few years.

I like how Hemsky started to speak up, I like how Gagner grew his game, I like how Peckham emerged I liked how Smid showed some jam more often than not and I like that the team is now, possibly undisputably, Tambellini's.

Yay.

Overpriced contracts remain a huge issue and how Tambellini resolves that issue is the big ?. He has more flex than many give him credit for but wholesale change will remain difficult.

New coach has his work cut out for him.

Here's hoping.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Calgary - Kudos

Calgary picked up the rights to negotiate with Bouwmeester for a 3rd round pick.

Is it a big price to pay given the odds of signing a guy committed to UFA? Yes.

Is it a big price to pay if they do sign him? No.

And for all who think the salary is an issue (I expect 6.75 and a retirement contract) I give these 3 words:

Vandermeer
Primeau
Jokinen

Vandermeer is already gone so that is $2.3 million in Cap. Primeau is another $1.4 million and Jokinen is $5.25 million. That is, in total, $8.95 million. More than enough for Bouwmeester and a couple of fillers for the other spots. If they pick up Malhotra they score this off-season big time.

Now if only they can solve the Kiprusoff problem.

When you have a chance to get a difference making talent like Bouwmeester - you do it. If Brent Sutter can turn Phaneuf around Calgary will be a scary team for years to come.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft (2009) - Review

Very deep draft. Could be 2003 all over again. One big trade came early (affecting draft order):

TRADE: Philadelphia trades Lupul, Sbisa, the #21 pick, their 1st round pick from 2010 and a conditional 3rd round pick from 2010 (or 2011) to Anaheim for Pronger and Dingle. Anaheim now has the #15 and the #21 while Philadelphia is out of the 1st round.

01 ... NYI ... Tavares
02 ... TAM ... Hedman
03 ... COL ... Duchene
04 ... ATL ... Kane

The first 4 picks are all as advertised. As much as I can appreciate the talent this draft has all the drama of a day-old Timbit. If it wasn't for the trade of Pronger... nuthin'.

As with every year there is one team, picking early, that I think should trade down and this year, for the 2nd time in the last 3 years, that team is the LA Kings. Not because their pick was a reach (like Hickey was) but because this team HAS to be competitive and getting a play-now asset for the 5th was a better way to go (imo).

Schenn was next on the board and that is where the LA Kings go. [Editor's note: Burke... not happy. YKOil... happy. I'm cheap that way.]

05 ... LAK ... Schenn
06 ... PHO ... Ekman-Larsson

A quick look at the aggregate scoring list shows that Phoenix is the first team to take a guy out of order - leapfrogging Paajarvi-Svensson and Cowen to take Ekman-Larsson. Great pick imo, just outside the 10 point jump rule but really, how could they go wrong at this spot in this draft?

TRADE: Howson continues to show us what he can do as a GM: Columbus trades the #16 and #77 to the NY Islanders for the #26, 37, 62 and 92. For a drop of 10 spots the Jackets get 2 extra picks; of which one is really high quality. That said, if the Isalnders get what they want they do well here as well.

This is what I said in my aggregated ranking post: If anyone ranked below Schroeder is chosen in the top-8 it SHOULD be a major surprise and if anyone ranked below Kadri is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

Well. Okay then.

07 ... TOR ... Kadri
08 ... DAL ... Glennie

Kadri was ranked 11th (23 pts), Glennie was ranked 15th (10 pts) and they both jumped Paarjarvi-Svensson (6th w/ 48 pts), Cowen (7th w/ 40 pts), Kulikov (9th w/ 27 pts) and Schroeder (10th w/ 26 pts). If the Kadri pick is a surprise, the Glennie pick is BIG surprise. I like Glennie but... wow.

Maybe the Oilers get Kulikov? Will they risk the Russian steppes?

09 ... OTT ... Cowen
10 ... EDM ... Paarjarvi-Svensson
11 ... NAS ... Ellis

Ottawa gets back on script so Edmonton had an interesting choice to make. Kulikov is still my choice but Paarjarvi-Svensson is tempting in a Jani Rita sort of way; they take the Swede (who is half-Finn apparently; its a twofer!). Too bad in a way, Cowen would have been a no brainer.

I like the pick. Kulikov is the better player but Paajarvi isn't chopped liver either. Speculation is that Kulikov will drop because of the 'Russian' factor - be interesting to see how far. Nashville takes Ellis and it's a little funny isn't it? No one is mentioning how far Schroeder is dropping.

TRADE: Minnesota trades the #12 to the New York Islanders for the #16, 77 and 182. Nice trade by both teams as Minnesota gets a bounty of picks and the Islanders get aggressive.

12 ... NYI ... DeHaan
13 ... BUF ... Kassian
14 ... FLO ... Kulikov
15 ... ANA ... Holland
16 ... MIN ... Leddy

Well. Okay. A good trade for Minnesota. Islanders take DeHaan too early but I suspect they were spooked by the Ellis pick (and Kulikov drop) and figured they would get their d-man while they could. Big stretch by the Islanders.

Buffalo stretches a bit in taking Kassian (let's face it - they needed the size and grit) and then Florida, soon to be down a J-Bo, takes Kulikov. Great pick by Florida. Great pick.

Anaheim takes Holland and Minnesota takes Leddy (teams are all over the map now)... who the H%LL is Leddy? They couldn't trade down any further? Leddy might turn out but this is a horrible use of the pick by Minnesota. Schroeder continues to drop.

17 ... STL ... Rundblad
18 ... MON ... LeBlanc
19 ... NYR ... Kreider

St. Louis and Montreal help get the top-15 lists back on track but then the NY Rangers take Kreider. Fastest skater in the draft apparently... Barry... is that you?

TRADE: Calgary trades the #20 to New Jersey for the #23 and 84. Calgary pulls one out of the Kevin Lowe hat. Good trade for New Jersey.

20 ... NJD ... Josefson

TRADE: Anaheim trades the #21 to Columbus for the #26 and 37. Howson stays frisky. Should have been talking to Calgary apparently. It's a room full of gnats and Lou has a newspaper.

21 ... CLB ... Moore
22 ... VAN ... Schroeder
23 ... CAL ... Erixon

Moore is a solid pick even if the price is high and Vancouver gets Christmas a little early as Schroeder falls all the way to the 22nd. Luck is blind. Calgary picks up decent talent in Erixon.

24 ... CLB ... Johansson
25 ... VAN ... Caron
26 ... ANA ... Palmieri
27 ... CAR ... Paradis
28 ... CHI ... Olsen

A whole whack of picks that jump ahead of three guys who actually made a top-15 list: Despres, Roussel and Morin. Despres is the surprise here.

TRADE: Detroit trades the #29 to Tampa Bay for the #32 and 75. For a team on the verge of falling apart it is nice to see Tampa make a move.

29 ... TAM ... Ashton
30 ... PIT ... Despres

I like Tampa's draft day but I can't help but wonder how Pittsburgh got Despres this late in the draft. Great value for Pittsburgh at the #30.

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The winners are (in order):

-- Philadelphia (CFP),
-- Anaheim (How to Get Value for an Asset 101),
-- Tampa Bay (a franchise d-man and a decent wing),
-- Columbus (built depth and got a highly rated player),
-- Florida, Vancouver and Pittsburgh (great value picks),
-- Despres
-- New York Islanders (great maneuvers but De Haan?),
-- Minnesota (great maneuvers but Leddy?),

The losers are (in order):

-- Anaheim (Lupul?),
-- Toronto (all that air wasted),
-- Los Angeles (team needs real players)

Philadelphia, in getting Pronger, does really well here. Good thing for the rest of the East that Philly can't secure solid goaltending to save their life.

As for the Oilers:

I like Paarjarvi-Svensson. Nothing wrong with that pick at all. I do get tired of the tire-kicking though. If you are going to move up then do so; quit dicking around.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Not a Hockey Post

Had to be another out there somewhere.

Been following the NBA a little more lately. Fascinating league where BPA is a fantasy for all but the best GM's (Spurs). Now, and I say this honestly - NOT EVERY TEAM NEEDS A REBUILD - but boy oh boy do the Raptors ever need some help.

From Garbajosa's injury to the ill-fated trades for TJ Ford and O'Neal* the team is in dire shape and there is no way they are going to win with Bosh given that the Raps won't be a luxury tax team**.

Trade Bosh to one of Miami (Beasley) or Golden State (Randolph) and pick up some draft picks while you are at it. Get the 29th from LA (who are willing to sell) and trade down in this draft because no one will be worth it at the 9th spot (though I do like Holiday if there) and a decent - for this draft - guy will be available later.

Anyways - first day of two big draft days for me upcoming... sweet!

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* which goes to show what star-shopping-because-stars-will-fix-everything can get you (Heatley)
** if the team was willing to pay significant luxury tax they could eventually build a contender around Bosh imo

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Have a great evening everyone.

Tampa Bay - Too Fast For Me

Honest. I had hoped to do a full write up on a Tampa Bay rebuild in conjunction with a post on "Rebuilds - On Steroids" (finally) and "Edmonton Oilers - After the Prong".

Given that things are moving so fast there right now I have believe that anything I write wouldn't be anywhere near prescient, or even intelligent (don't wait for it), if I waited any longer so consider this the (very) short-form.

Keepers

Otherwise known as players I like for the long haul.

G - Smith
D - Ranger, Meszaros, Smaby
W - nada, zippo and out of here
C - Stamkos

From the 2009 Draft, picks of note include: #2, #32 and #52.

Prospects of interest include (in order): Szczechura, Wishart, Lashoff and (maybe) Tyrell.

Trade Assets

(in order of value)

LeCavalier
St. Louis
Malone
Halpern
Prospal (too many years left)

Short-Forming

Try to send Lecavalier to the Kings for their 1st overall (the #5), one of Teubert/Hickey (probably not Hickey), one of Purcell/Moller (you want Moller) and some lesser draft pick(s) and prospect(s). In an amazing world maybe the 1st, Frolov (on a salary equalization basis) and one of Teubert/Purcell/1st rounder 2010 is obtained.

Frolov would, of course, have to be extended. Pay the man.

If Montreal is willing to play then some combination of: 18th pick overall (2009 draft), 1st round pick in 2010, Gorges, Higgins, Plekanec, Pacioretty and McDonagh. Maxwell, Subban and Fischer are also options. Gorges, Higgins and one of Pacioretty/McDonagh form the minimum requirements. Of course, as we know, any 5 assets will do.

Try to send St. Louis to Colorado.

Colorado may be willing to forego a rebuild if St. Louis comes their way. If so, don't be afraid to entice them by taking Tucker and one other short-term salary dump off their hands. The main target(s) is the #3 overall pick in this years draft and Shattenkirk. St. Louis and the #32 for Tucker, the #3 and Shattenkirk may be doable. If not Shattenkirk then Nigel Williams. Pay the price.

Prospal and Malone have a lot of years left on their deals but, at least in the case of Malone, there may be a fanboi GM out there so check it out.

Halpern should be an easy trade - someone will give up a 2nd (trade deadline) or 3rd (draft) for him.

Pay The Price

As mentioned - pay the price. The goal is to get at least one, and if aggressive, both of those high quality draft picks. Final price to pay - find out what Snow would want to NOT pick Hedman and bail if it gets ridiculous..

Do all that and the 'Keepers' roster looks like so (assuming decent but not amazing trades in those two scenarios):

G - Smith
D - Ranger, Meszaros, Gorges, Smaby, Hedman, Williams
W - Plekanec, Ashton**
C - Stamkos, Higgins, Duchene, Schenn/Kane

** If going by Mackenzie's listing and drafting for need

THAT is a sweet up-n-coming roster. Tonnes of upside and it still sucks for next year when more draft assets can be added and maybe Malone and Prospal can be traded. And all of that would come before other asset building strategies are employed.

This is the kind of year when a struggling team can remake their future by being sure and aggressive. Be interesting to see who wins that power struggle (though, to be honest, I don't credit Koules or Lawton with the skills to get it done right).

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Have a great evening everyone.