Nothing 2 See Here: April 2008

Wednesday, 30 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Position

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Position when Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

At issue here is the ability to isolate 'position-played' as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'position' category entirely. Since all positions will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below:

The percentile scores in the second column on the left-hand side of the first table are generated in a fashion similar to that of the previous study on player-age.

It does appear that the organization has a distinct ability to draft Centers; the raw data and percentile scores are both off the charts.

Question: I thought we sucked at drafting goalies? Answer: We do.

Don't let the decent score rating (only a -60) fool you, the Oilers organization has not drafted a single goaltender of any note since Fuhr. That is, for those keeping score, 26 years of blech. Maybe if Markannen had won the Cup?

Of course, as a co-worker of mine pointed out, the Canucks have never drafted a decent goaltender. Ever. Sucks to be them.

Question: Are we really that bad at drafting defensemen? Answer: Kinda.

The team scores low in this category but that is, as much as anything, due to the fact that it is an amalgamated number - there is no division between right and left-side defensemen. Be nice to know that sort of thing.

Look at the prospects portion of the chart. 2 'solid' prospects and 4 'borderline' prospects, all drafted in the last four years. If the majority of them have decent careers this score changes for the better in a big way.

Question: Hemsky is a LW? Answer: No. And Yes.

I took what I had for information for the year they were drafted. The position a player plays in the NHL is not always the same as that they played when developing in juniors and then the minors.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

Sunday, 27 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By League

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Development League when Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

At issue here is the ability to isolate the players initial development league as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'league' category entirely. Since all leagues will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below. Please remember that the league listed by the player is the league from which they were drafted. That player may have developed in several leagues over the course of their junior career but when they were drafted they belonged to a single team or league and that is what is listed (and therefore part of this study).

This is a very interesting set of data. Even after the standard analysis is completed there is a lot left to interpret. Example: the OHL and WHL have similar draft numbers (57 vs. 54) and percentiles (25 vs. 26) but very different scores (300 vs. 180). Look now at the player grades - the players drafted out of the OHL had better careers. Remember - player grade scores were flattened out - not disregarded.

Question: Why the infatuation with U.S. Highschools? Answer: Good question.

To be honest some of those highschools/prepschools could possibly be reclassified as colleges or universities so my numbers may be off, however, I find it amazing that this organization thought there was, on a regular basis, better potential in U.S. highschools than in the QMJHL (for instance).

It would be understandable if the team was taking a flyer every now and then but the number of players, and subsequent busts, drafted out of the US highschool systems is too large to consider anything but systematic.

Question: Are we wasting resources in Europe? Answer: Yes. And No.

Yes: of 80 some draft picks, only 16% of them (13 of 80) have had NHL careers of note. No: the vast majority of those success stories have come out of Finland and the Czech Republic (and the old Czechoslovakia).

I comment on this more in the next link (a review by Country of Origin) but suffice to say that not ALL of the resources we are using to scout for talent in Europe are being wasted.

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The abbreviations used above are as follows:

The USHS category also contains those players drafted out of the USHL program.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

Saturday, 12 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Country

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Birth/Origin Country of Draftee

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

At issue here is the ability to isolate the players nation of origin as a factor in evaluating the ability of an organization to draft players. To do that it is important to modify the player-grade scores such that a single 'Hall of Fame' player does not skew the results of a single 'nation' category entirely. Since all nations will be treated as equal, for purposes of drafting, no other modifications to the grading scores are required.

The grading scores are organized and summarized in the table below. Please remember that the nation listed is the nation that they were born in and not the nation where they learned to play hockey. As most players did the majority of their development, as hockey players, in the country of their birth it is an issue to be aware of and not a fatal flaw in the study itself.

Well. It isn't very hard to see where the majority of the draft resources of the Oilers have been wasted. The organization has a terrible record of drafting players out of the United States, Sweden and Russia. Sure, Mike Comrie was drafted out of the NCAA, but he is Canadian and so his points go to Canada. Even if you did reclassify players like Comrie it wouldn't help much. It is scary just how bad these results are. A damning indictment.

Canada does as well as should be expected and Canadians have been the mainstay of the team since it's inception. The wonder nation is Finland. Whoever the Oilers have scouting Finland deserves a big raise. A high percentile score combined with a high grading score indicates that this is no fluke. Perhaps the Oilers should take what works for them in Finland and replicate it elsewhere.

It is interesting that the Oilers haven't touched Finland since the Niinimaki blow out and in, what appears to be, a COMPLETE reversal of policy the team has drafted 8 Swedes in the last 7 years. In all of the 22 years prior... 3. Wow. It's like magic.

Question: What is the story in Russia? Answer: Nuts.

Historically The player profiles show that the Oilers didn't jump on the 'Draft Russia' bandwagon until very late in the game (1 pick in '87, 1 in '88, 2 in '89). Hard to draft a Bure, Malakhov, Larionov, Datsyuk, etc when they aren't even on your board. Russia was, apparently, not in Mexico.

One would think the Mikhnov pick would have made the situation worse (the whole story reads like tragi-comedy) but the team has continued using decent, early, picks out Russia way (a 3rd in 2003 and 2nd in 2004) and this leaves me with the answer I gave.

Nuts.

Question: How about Sweden then? Answer: Don't know anymore.

I used to think that the Oilers, as an organization, just HATED Sweden. You would have thought the scout in Finland never crossed the border as they, obviously, never saw guys like Alfredsson play the game. This is shameful. Or was anyways. As noted, activity in Sweden has picked up considerably. Funny thing though... highest ever pick used on a Swedish player is... in 1987, in the 4th round, #64, Peter Eriksson. 1987. Wow. No Swede has EVER been picked before the 4th round by the Oilers.

I have to think that a LOT of good players have been missed because the Oilers lack/lacked a decent scouting organization in Sweden. That kind of a record is beyond bad. It is pitiable.

Question: Hey! Hungary? Answer: Cool.

I actually approve of 'taking a flyer' style picks out of places like Hungary. Just getting a player drafted in Hungary makes headlines there. Good for them and good for us. Could have been worse. Could have been Russia. Or Sweden. Or even the good old USofA.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Short Summary

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Short Recap / Summary

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

The Edmonton Oilers started out with a bang - 6 draft picks that are / will be / could be / should be in the Hockey Hall of Fame, two other players that would be stars on any other team and a few more good foot soldiers too boot - all inside our first five drafts. Those players, combined with some guy we will call 'Gretzky' would form the foundation of 5 Stanley Cup winning teams.

Sadly, it didn't last. The incredible start that the team had at the draft table ground to a halt quickly and thoroughly. The drought at the draft table would begin in 1984 and carry on through until, essentially, 1993. Exactly five players of any note were drafted by the Oilers between 1984 and 1992. Of those, only Rucinsky, had any real offensive talent. The rest of them, Buchberger, Van Allen, Podein & Maltby, were all pluggers.

1993 marked the beginning of what many would see as a turn-around for the club as the string of wasted 1st round picks was cut when Jason Arnott was chosen 7th overall. Ryan Smyth was picked in the 6th spot in 1994 and many thought the drought was over for good. From 1993 to 1996 the Oilers would draft the headline grabbing talent of Arnott, Satan, Smyth, Laraque, Poti and Pisani. Better talent from those four years than in all nine previous.

1997 through 2000 did not see stellar results produced from the picks made. One notable player would come out of each year: Chimera, Horcoff, Comrie and Lombardi. Chimera will be a career journeyman, Horcoff has surprised, Comrie's game is flawed and Lombardi has yet to effectively plateau. While Horcoff has grown into the role of being a first line center who drives results it is important to remember that it took some 10 years for him to get there. Not a great 4 years for the club.

2001 may mark the beginning of another string of good draft years for the club. Primarily because Ales Hemsky was picked 1st round that year. The guy was playing 'solid' hockey by his third NHL season and is the most skilled player the Oilers have drafted in a long, long while. If Stoll can recover from injury and Greene can continue to improve then 2002 becomes a momentum building year.

Down the road there are prospects like Pouliot, Stortini, Brodziak, Dubnyk, Schremp, Cogliano, Chorney, Petry, Gagner and Nash. After years scrabbling to survive one gets the sense the Oilers found a new source of food and water - the change is dramatic.

In summary, from:

-- 1979 to 1983 (5 Drafts) the team drafted far better than anyone could ever have expected and won 5 Stanley Cups;

-- 1984 to 1992 (9 drafts) the team drafted just 5 players of real value and set the table for years of being less than mediocre;

-- 1993 to 2000 (8 drafts) the team would draft some decent players but never achieve critical mass because a) not enough bunched together and b) some took a while to make the show;

-- 2001 to 2007 (7 drafts) the team may, though it is early yet to call it, be making a good run and setting the table for future success

Karma may, finally, just, be coming back around. Would be nice.

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Edmonton Oilers Drafting Fun Fact:

These are the Mike's I know, I know...

Mike Toal ('79), Mike Winther ('80), Mike Sturgeon ('81), Mike Golden & Mike Flanagan ('83), Mike Ware ('85), Mike Greenlay ('86), Mike Tinkham ('87), Mike Glover ('88), Mike Power ('90), Mike Watt ('94), Mike Minard ('95), Mike Reisen ('97), Mike Henrich & Mike Morrison ('98), Mike Comrie ('99), Mike Svensk ('01)

The most popular name in Oiler draft history. At least Comrie can play - we almost went 0 for 17.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

Friday, 11 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Grading System

Edmonton Oilers (v. 2007)
Atlanta Thrashers (v. 2008)

[This post has been slightly edited to allow referencing from multiple HRDR's]

Historical Review of Draft Results

Player Grading System

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Conventional wisdom has it that getting one capable player out of each draft makes that draft a success. Conventional wisdom is full of bunk. A team full of draft picks from draft years that yielded a single 'solid' player like Buchberger, Maltby, etc. is still a team full of Buchbergers, Maltby's et al, and as much as I respect the capabilities of those players - that isn't a team that will ever come within an ice-rink of the Stanley Cup.

A team NEEDS to have star-calibre players in order to compete at the higher levels. Anything less, is by definition, less. That means that any grading system used has to have 'star' players form the basis of its success from both a draft-year to draft-year perspective and from an overall historical perspective. The grading system (and scoring system) also has to reflect the value of a Hall of Fame calibre player (think Hasek when in Buffalo).

Given all of that, now is a good time to explain the scoring system. At its most basic the scoring system has two basic rules - 1) a negative score represents a 'failed' score (individually or otherwise), and 2) that a drafting a single 'star' player should make a draft year a success. From there it was, almost, easy.

Overall the scoring system is pretty fair. A single drafted 'star' player is worth the same as ten wasted picks and, in a year with 9 possible picks, would result in a passing grade. Too many wasted picks will result in failed grades and since this is consistent with the goal of a draft to begin with - getting players to the 'show' - the system has merit, and it works. A team could cheat (just bring everyone up for a game) but we will trust them not to be stupid ( ... ).

That brings us to the actual PGS. The Player Grading System works on the basis of several assumptions:

1. The player's entire NHL career, past and future, is what counts. Play in other leagues is irrelevant.
2. Every player is capable of being rated categorically and that a score can be applied to each of those categories.
3. Grades can and will change. Many careers are surprisingly long or depressingly short - expect change.
4. By definition, players from beyond the last four (4) draft years are considered players - with few exceptions.
5. By definition, players from the last four (4) years of drafts are considered prospects - with few exceptions.
6. Such grades and scores that are applied are completely a product of my own research and opinion.

As you can imagine this leaves a lot of wiggle room. I can only hope that after you have read the entirety of the contents of this page that you might consider my opinion(s) to be fair in nature and worth some consideration. I don't really care if you agree with every point I make, what is important is that you understand the points I make.

Note: you will spot some inconsistencies. I made some judgement calls. i.e. regardless of their international play none of Rita, Salmelainen and Mikhnov will play again in the NHL / rather than rank both Omark and Bjurling as 'unranked' or as 'borderline' prospects I split the difference and Bjurling won the toss, etc. Remember - things change. Who knows how long Winchester can keep earning an NHL paycheque? No matter, I will adjust the grade accordingly next review.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction

Atlanta Thrashers 2008 HRDR - Introduction

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Have a great evening everyone.

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Graded Players, Summary Of

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Applying the Player Grading System to the draft pool of the Edmonton Oilers I came up with this:

Hall of Fame level (grade A+ / score 600)

We know who these guys are, their accomplishments speak for themselves. While Hall of Fame players are often called 'superstars', this is actually quite limiting. A Hall of Fame player can also be a player who has been a 'star' long enough, and consistently enough, to earn the universal respect of the hockey world. Kevin Lowe only has one remarkable statistic on his Hall of Fame resume - the number 6 - which is the number of Stanley Cup rings he earned in his underrated, and brilliant, career.

Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri, Grant Fuhr

Star level (grade A / score 300)

Star caliber players have excelled, literally excelled, at their position or role on the team. However, they have never done enough to be considered one of THE elite players at the position. Players that get this rating don't always have to have amazing point totals; Guy Carboneau never had great point totals but he did win a whack of Stanley Cups and trophy hardware, enough in fact that he could be Hall of Fame material - let alone a 'star'. Brendan Shanahan may be hard pressed to get in the Hall, as will Doug Weight, but they are both 'star' caliber players.

Andy Moog, Esa Tikkanen, Jason Arnott, Miroslav Satan, Ryan Smyth

Solid level (grade B / score 150)

Never quite gaining 'star' status, a 'solid' NHL player is welcome on any NHL team. Their contribution(s) to their team’s - whether from talent (think Slava Kozlov) or desire (think McSorley – pre-hatchet work) - is generally not in question. They have produced enough, long enough, to be considered an asset of some worth. Note that there are two additional sub-classes of 'solid' players - high-level 'journeymen' who have incredible longevity (a Van Allen type) and those 'star' players who don't have the longevity (think Poddubny).

Walt Poddubny, Steve Smith, Jeff Beukeboom, Kelly Buchberger, Shaun Van Allen, Shjon Podein, Martin Rucinsky, Kirk Maltby, Tom Poti, Shawn Horcoff, Mike Comrie, Ales Hemsky

Journeyman level (grade C / score 90)

No NHL team can survive without the role-players on the team; someone has to do the dirty work. They are 'solid' players in their own right but never achieve the higher rating for one of two reasons: they never played enough games or they never really rose above the 4th line/#6 defenseman status they had. Where a player like Grier will probably attain a 'solid' player ranking (given a few more years), a player like Dowd will be hard pressed to ever be considered more than a 'journeyman' (even though playing with Gaborik may obfuscate the issue).

Marc Habshied, Todd Ewen, Brad Werenka, Geoff Smith, Josef Beranek, Anatoli Semenov, Tyler Wright, David Vyborny, Georges Laraque, Boyd Devereaux, Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera, Matthew Lombardi, Jussi Markannen, Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene

Borderline level (grade D / score 30)

Players who never fulfilled their potential, and ultimately, frittered away their NHL career. Some players in this category could have had one, or even two, remarkable seasons - they just never put it all together for any real length of time. 'Borderline' also describes players in the NHL right now who have careers in a state of flux - will they pan out, or not? Consider Jimmy Carson - a great rookie (L.A.), a decent sophomore (Edm.) and a lackluster career (everywhere). Too talented to be a 'journeyman', never a 'star' and not around long enough to be a 'solid' player.

Jaroslav Pouzar, Raimo Summanen, Don Barber, Francois Leroux, Len Barrie, Peter White, David Oliver, Brad Norton, Mike Watt, Ladislav Benysek, Steve Kelly, Alex Henry, Alexei Semenov, Brad Winchester

Coffee level (grade E / score 00)

As in 'Cup of Coffee'. This is the guy who shows up for a few games as an injury fill-in but is sent right back down when expendable. No impact at all on the major leagues (as a player at least).

Mike Toal, Blair Barnes, Todd Strueby, Paul Houck, Miroslav Horava, Gord Sherven, Jim Playfair, Steve Graves, Dean Clark, John Miner, Selmar Odelein, Daryl Reaugh, Scott Metcalfe, Mike Ware, Kim Issel, Dan Currie, David Haas, Jim Ennis, Mike Greenlay, Peter Eriksson, Tomas Srsen, Igor Vyazmikin, Trevor Sim, Davis Payne, Darcy Martini, Kelly Fairchild, Joe Hulbig, Ralph Intranuovo, Joaquin Gage, Marko Tuomainen, Nick Stajduhar, Alexander Kerch, Ilja Byakin, Jason Bonsignore, Mike Minard, Matthieu Descoteaux, Chris Hajt, Michel Reisen, Peter Sarno, Michael Morrison, Jani Rita, Tony Salmelainen, Adam Hauser, Alexei Mikhnov, Doug Lynch, Kari Haakana, Ales Pisa, Shay Stephenson

Unranked players and prospects (grade F or UNR / score - 30)

Didn't even make the show. Not a reflection of character (none of the categories are really). Just a fact. Note that this ranking applies somewhat differently to prospects. In the case of prospects, what matters is the 'buzz' surrounding that player. Unranked prospects, by definition, aren't expected to make the show. Most late round draft picks fall into this category by default while most early round draft picks have to play their way into it (not a good thing btw).

Too many to name - 157 players, 23 prospects... and counting.

Star level prospects (grade STP / score 120)

The next big thing. Will score goals by the bucketful or stop everything bigger than a pea from getting into the net. Every team wants to draft these players (or trade for them) and few teams have them. No one exactly what the new guy will do in the show but everyone KNOWS they will do something. Of course, 'will do' often turns into 'should have done' but we will leave that alone for now.

Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner

Solid level prospects (grade SLP / score 60)

Sure this guy may not be the next Selanne, but everyone thinks that he MIGHT be able to do something at the pro-level. He might just end-up as a 'journeyman' that bounces from team to team and pots 20-40 points a year OR he might be the next Glenn Anderson, BUT at least he it hoped that he will do SOMETHING. Please note the distinction there - 'solid prospects' might while 'star prospects' should.

Zack Stortini, Kyle Brodziak, Rob Schremp, Taylor Chorney, Jeff Petry, Riley Nash

Borderline level prospects (grade BRD / score 00)

Will this guy even make it to the NHL? Who knows? They may be a surprise to everyone if they ever find the right situation with the right team. Question is: is Edmonton that team? Most '?' prospects will probably get a cup of coffee with the team, but anything more than that is a guess. Expansion figures large with this category as talent depth is so thin everyone sifts through waiver wire prospects for copper.

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Jean-Francois Jacques, Mathieu Roy, Devan Dubnyk, Liam Reddox, Bjorn Bjurling, Chris Vande Velde, Vyacheslav Trukhno, Cody Wild, Alexandre Plante

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

Thursday, 10 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Data Set: Changes in Data Set from 2003 Version

As noted throughout this document I have produced two other versions of this study/review (in 2000 and in 2003). Every writing requires an update in the data set as careers progress, or regress as the case may be, and new players get drafted. Some of the changes are subtle (Pisa is downgraded to a 'cup-of-coffee' player) while others are more dramatic (Greene is upgraded from being a 'borderline' prospect to a 'journeyman' player).

A list of those changes is below:

Data Set: Summary of Missing Data Points

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1979 - 1983

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1979

With the greatest hockey player of all time already in the fold the Oilers draft another of the top-10 players of all time (Messier), one of the top-20 scoring right wingers of all time (Anderson) and one of the top-20 defensive defensemen of all time (Lowe).

A pretty good draft all things considered. Quite possibly the best draft year by any team. Ever. Of the other three guys... who really cares?

1980

In 1980 the team adds one of the top-10 defensemen of all time (Coffey) and one of the top-20 wingers of all time (Kurri) to the fold. A Stanley Cup nucleus in two easy drafts.

Moog would be a stalwart for the Oilers in net (until Fuhr took the top job for good in 1983-84) and had a long, distinguished career. Poddubny also had a solid NHL career (just not as an Oiler) and three 'star' quality seasons with the Rangers & Nordiques.

Another great draft.

1981

Fuhr would become one of the top-10 to 15 goaltenders of all-time while Steve Smith would go on to have a long, if not distinguished, career (despite the most infamous goal in Oiler history). With Fuhr, that makes for six HOF caliber careers in just three drafts.

Habschied managed to string a career together while bouncing between the different NHL teams (345 games), their respective farm systems and the Canadian National team. Four other players got a look-see as Sather tried to fill out the roster.

1982

Drafted at the age of 30, Pouzar was a gem of a player who simply tired of the NHL after three years in. Despite his 'borderline' tag, rest assured that if he had come over (been drafted) earlier he would be ranked higher.

Summanen would have two good years in Edmonton before going on to Vancouver and fizzling out. Playfair, Graves and Clark wouldn't even manage to do that. Note that Playfair was the first Oilers 1st that didn't have a HOF caliber career (no pressure there, eh?)

1983

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1984 - 1988

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1984

The second of the failed Oiler drafts (1982 was the first). Ewen is the one player who had a decent career (never did play for the Oilers), getting in 500+ NHL games playing the role of 'enforcer'. Odelein and Reaugh were only around long enough for a cup of coffee and didn't do much after that.

These drafts would come back to haunt the Oilers in the early 1990's as no one was available to replace the magic of the 80's teams.

1985

Buchberger, 'Bucky', went on to become the Oilers captain and a symbol of team loyalty to all - until Atlanta got him in the expansion draft anyways. The very definition of a 'solid' NHLer, Buchberger played 1,182 games in his career - and he played none of them soft.

Metcalfe and Ware both got a taste of the coffee in Edmonton before they were done (Metcalfe got a few more games in with Buffalo and topped out at 19 NHL games). The other eight picks didn't make the show.

1986

The first of the Oilers 'ugly' drafts, but not the ugliest (1990 wins that sweepstake). 1986 would mark three consecutive failed drafts for this organization - five players would get a look-see but no player from this draft had any sort of career in the NHL.

1987

Werenka (320 NHL games) and Smith (462 NHL games) put in some good 'journeyman' type work for several NHL teams. Van Allen, however, hustled his way to 794 NHL games - mostly with the expansion Senators - and a 'solid' player ranking in this study.

This draft was notable for the number of older Euro's picked by the team. Three would get a cup of coffee with the team but, sadly, none would step in to help extend the dynasty. No Pouzar's, or even Summanen's for that matter, found here.

1988

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1989 - 1993

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1989

Semenov came in as an over-ager and played two years in Edmonton before bouncing his way around the league for a total of 362 NHL games. Beranek played some 531 games, mainly in Edmonton (twice) and Pittsburgh. Neither would ever be better than a 'journeyman' calibre player.

White played 220 NHL games but never really established himself as he was a smallish speedster during the reign of the dinosaurs. Payne and Martini played a few games in the NHL... and that is about it.

1990

Ugly, ugly, ugly. This is the one-year the scouts should have signed their paycheques back over to the team. Hard to say if any of these picks could make a cup of coffee, let alone find their way to Edmonton to play a hockey game. I really cannot find worse things to say about this draft year, but I should. Drafts like this kill a team.

THIS is the worst draft in the history of the Edmonton Oilers.

1991

Oliver was too one dimensional to last long in the NHL and topped out at 233 NHL games (last played in Dallas). Wright mostly covered the bet and strung together some good years with several teams (613 NHL games). Rucinsky would go on to play over 900 NHL games and was a proven skill-player for a lot of years. Of the three, only Oliver played a large number of games for the Oilers.

None of the other draftees made the NHL. As an aside, Vegar Barlie is, imo, the coolest name in the history of the team.

1992

Hard hitting Maltby would eventually find a home in Detroit and would parley his 'journeyman' talent into a long career and a couple of Stanley Cups (917 NHL games and counting). Maltby was one of the 'journeyman' players promoted to a 'solid' player ranking in the 2003 review.

Hulbig, Intranuovo, Gage and Tuomainen were barely blips on the NHL radar screen but compared to the rest... at least they blipped. Another year of suspect scouting. Another poor draft year.

1993

Wednesday, 9 April 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1994 - 1998

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1994

Smyth is the prize of this draft year as he developed into one of the best LW's in the game (upgraded to 'star' status for this review). Bonsignore, picked before Smyth, didn't have the toolbox and played himself out of the league early far earlier than he should have.

Watt almost had a career under-way, twice, with the Islanders (and then Nashville) but the sleeper pick (#266 overall) was Benysek, Minnesota signed him as an over-ager (Edmonton let him go UFA) and he played parts of three seasons there. The other 12 draft picks remained just that. Draft picks.

1995

Like Watt the year before, Kelly had a somewhat promising career derailed by injury; he has played some 149 games to date. Laraque proved himself to be one of the best big league enforcers and will be no worse than a journeyman for the rest of his career (he doesn't get the playing time one would expect of a 'solid' player).

Minard was good for a cup of coffee in Edmonton (just one) and he represents the remaining hi-lite of that draft.

1996

Poti started off like he was a sure-thing superstar and then almost lost his career due to lacklustre defensive play. He has surprised many by maturing into a solid positional defenseman with good offensive skills.

Devereaux overcame concussion issues and turned himself into a serviceable 4th line 'energy' minutes guy (in Toronto now) and could actually get to 'solid' player status if he continues his steady level of play over a few more years.

Pisani blew the doors off in 2006 with a play-offs for the ages. The 'borderline' prospect (last review) jumps to a 'journeyman' ranking in style; a few more years and he is a shoe-in for a 'solid' player ranking.

Descoteaux and Hajt only ever got a sniff of the show. No one else even showed.

1997

Reisen made the big team for a short span of time in 2000-01... and then he went back home. He and Bonsignore could be the poster boys for 'almost' having what it takes.

107 draft picks later the Oilers would choose Chimera and as predicted in the last review he has been upgraded to a 'journeyman' ranking; it is too bad that his potential upside is not now what it seemed to be back then.

Sarno, to his credit, did make it to the show - I hope he enjoyed the coffee.

1998

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 1999 - 2003

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

1999

Comrie, now with the Islanders, is a pretty good scorer when on his game but as a one dimensional player he will need a long career if he is to ever move up in these rankings. Semenov is on his 'last chance' legs in San Jose and might be back in Europe as soon as next year.

Rita and Salmelainen could never make that jump to being bonafide, full-time, NHL players and are now out of the NHL. Who knows if they will ever make it back. Hauser got a game in and should be happy to have done so.

2000

In a VERY weak draft class for the Oilers, Lombardi is the pick worth having. He plays in Calgary now. Winchester may be building a career in Dallas but his skills are limited so it is hard to say how many chances his size will get him.

Mikhnov finally came over but an inability to make an impact led to an inability to make the roster which led to an inability to want to stay - he is back in Russia now. All the other picks are notable only for not being notable.

2001

In need of instant depth the team took a flyer on three over-agers from Europe, of them one turned out just fine (Markannen). The other two made an appearance but didn't last.

Never mind them though - the star of this draft is Hemsky - finally, a 1st round pick that lives up to the hype. By the next time this review is written Hemsky should, if he keeps on keeping on like he does, jump one grade in these rankings.

Of the rest, only Lynch and Stephenson would make any noise (more whimper than shout).

2002

Niinimaki, given where drafted vs where projected to be drafted, is a spectacular bust of a pick. Niinimaki wasn't even near the draft board when picked and if the Oilers never make any noise in the prime of Hemsky's career it will be because of picks like Niinimaki and Mikhnov.

Of a passle of 2nd's: Stoll has turned into a responsible defensive player with a good PP point shot - just as advertised while Greene, perfect for the 'old' NHL sometimes looks out of place in the new, 'less clutch and grab', NHL. JDD had some hard years of it but is doing well in 2007-08 so hopefully he is back on track.

Luoma got a look-see as an over-ager while the rest of them... a whole lotta 'not so much'.

2003

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Years 2004 - 2007

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

2004

Of the 1st rounders, Schremp continues to mix incredible stick skills and offensive flair with so-so skating and offensive defense; while his overall development is still an issue he will get a full-shot at making the bigs. Dubnyk is a big, big goalie prospect who needs to add consistency and agility to his resume if he ever wants to be more than a back-up caliber NHLer.

Reddox, by all accounts, is developing a great overall game and if he does make the league the question will be - Devereaux or Pisani upside? Bjurling (an overager) is having a season to remember in Sweden.

2005

Cogliano has transitioned to NHL play fairly quickly, that he will have a career is not in question; at question is whether or not Marchant was his goal scoring coach in college.

Chorney is having a great college season and gives every indication he is ready for the jump and Vande Velde is making similar noise. Trukhno, on the other hand, is having trouble bringing his QMJHL success with him to the AHL.

2006

Cody Wild is enjoying a great season in college - so good that a 'borderline' ranking may not be doing him justice. Another season like this one and he can reasonably be considered a solid bet to make the NHL.

Petry continues to impress and could now be considered a legitimate 'miss' for the teams that passed on him in the draft. Peckham has impressive strength but it is to be seen if he can translate that into impressive 'game'.

2007

Nothing 2 See Here