Tuesday, 17 June 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Year

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Draft Year

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

The first table takes the player-grading system (please check that section for more clarification if needed) and applies it to each draft-year. This results in a series of positive and negative scores that indicate the degree of success the organization had in each draft year.

A second table (see below) is then used to assign a grade those scores - i.e. 1979 and 1996 may both have a positive score but even the village idiot will tell you that 1979 was a much better draft year. Loosely based on the player-grading system it serves to organize and summarize our information.

On a year-to-year basis it becomes easier to understand what has hurt the Oilers organization at the draft table - they fail too big. Yes, the team has three spectacular draft years. It also has one, absolutely disastrous, draft year and a host of other significant failures. Many of the Oilers passing grades are borderline in nature (once you get past the hall of fame years) while the vast majority of the 'failing grade years' are bad or really, really bad.

One more observation. If you look carefully at the results you will notice that the most successful years of the organization (in terms of hockey played) were a direct result of having several successful draft years in succession (79 / 80 / 81). Since then the Oilers organization has not had any stretch of drafts back-to-back that were successful. 1993 was a good year, but it stood alone and the impact it had could not be sustained.

Question: Ladislav Benysek only made the league because of expansion - just how many freebie points did this team get because expansion made players out of nobodies and extended the careers of others? Answer: Probably lots.

However, consider this - without the expansion teams diluting the draft pool the Oilers may have made some much better draft choices. Overall I have to believe that those two factors cancel each other out.

Question: When I add up all of the scoring numbers you generated for each year I get an average score of +137, doesn't this mean that the Oilers have a successful draft history? Answer: No.

Points are weighted to years and the number of players. Drafting six hall of fame players out of 300 draft picks doesn't mean much overall but in that particular draft year it makes a huge impact and it skews the average up accordingly.

Question: Pisani, Lombardi and Stoll are all rated as 'journeymen' - way better than that aren't they? Answer: Yes, but time is a big factor in this.

All three are early into their careers and none have dominating years on their resume (Stoll's PP boosted year perhaps?). Two years from now, given consistent performance, I would be hard-pressed NOT to have them rated as 'solid' players. Look at the Changes To Data Set chart for reference

Question: Is there ANY hope at all? Answer: Yeah. Always is.

Been a long time since the team had two 'Star' level prospects on the team (Cogs and Gagner) and if any three of Chorney, Dubnyk, Nash, Petry, Pouliot (I'll remain on that bandwagon), Schremp or Wild actually reach potential this team could put together some solid years. I will also retain hope for personal faves Quist and Spurgeon.


Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes


Have a great evening everyone.

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