Wednesday, 14 May 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Round

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Round when Player was Drafted

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Two factors are important when evaluating a teams drafting history in terms of the Draft Round in which the draftee was picked. Those factors are: 1) the quality of player and 2) which round they were drafted in. Players drafted in the 1st round should become 'stars' while players drafted in the 9th round are true longshots.

i.e. a 'star' player drafted in the 5th round is worth more than if that same 'star' player was drafted in the 1st round.

This also affects the negative scores of unranked players drafted early; let's face it - screwing up a 2nd round pick, on which the organization has spent considerable scouting resources, is worse than screwing up a 12th round throw-away pick.

Ex: An additional modifier of -60 was added to all unranked players (total is -90 in the 1st round) and then added back at 10/round until the total modifier was +/- 0 (the 10th round).

The modifiers allowed for the actual results of each draft round to be measured against the reasonable expectation of each round. Thus, drafting Kelly Buchberger in the 9th round, and getting a solid NHL'er out of a draft pick so late, results in the 9th round being a positive grade for the organization. The following table assigns a grade to each draft round:

The 2nd and 3rd rounds remain a damning indictment of the teams draft policies and scouts.

Pre-2003, of the 63 picks made from those rounds, only 14 serviceable players made the NHL and well over half of those are from the 'journeyman' category. Of the 4 players rated 'solid' or better, one was drafted in 1979 (Messier) and another (Maltby) was a longevity upgrade. That is not acceptable for draft rounds that are so important to an organization.

One could surmise that the team would have been further ahead if they had traded away every 2nd round pick the organization has ever had (and every 3rd round pick after Messier). No other draft round even comes close to the disaster that the 2nd and 3rd rounds are. From 2003 onward it does appear that the results are getting better and hopefully Chorney and/or Petry can make the grade.

Question: Why so down on the 2nd and 3rd rounds? That 5th round score is pretty bad too. Answer: Because draft picks made in the 5th round aren't supposed to mean anything.

I almost mean that too. Sure, you want that 5th round pick to turn out. You want EVERY pick to turn into a bonafide player. However, I am sure that teams are delighted when a pick after the 4th round makes their AHL roster. By comparison, 2nd and 3rd round picks SHOULD come close to making the NHL.

The way teams work through their draft lists a high 2nd round pick is, probably, still in the top-20 on that teams list. Think about that for a second. The team didn't screw up by picking that prospect with the #42 draft pick... they screwed up by having that prospect listed as their #18 (for example).

Question: Should the Oilers be stocking up on 4th round picks? Answer: I guess so.

The 4th round has been a bonanza for the Oilers. While the 2 'Hall of Fame' player grades combine with the low number of picks overall (24 picks made pre-2003) to help inflate the grading score, the simple fact is that the team has drafted well out of that spot. If I knew more I would tell you.

Question: I'll ask again - is there any hope? Answer: Yeah.

Remember, the Prospect section (above) covers the last 4-5 years (2003 - 2007). If you look you will notice that there are a lot of promising 1st and 2nd round prospects coming out of those years. Prendergast's scouting team may have, and I say that cautiously, may have turned it around.


Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes


Have a great evening everyone.

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