Friday, 12 June 2009

Congratulations to the Penguins

One of Two

I can't claim to have been here since the beginning - that honor belongs to guys like LT and MJ and the like - but I have been around a long, long time (it was soon after I moved up here, 1997 or so I guess). One of the things I remember, in the course of time, was the development of the mind-set, now prevalent in the Oilogosphere, of 'what-the-f%ck-is-really-going-on?'.

It started with +/- and TOI (still one of my all time favorite stats) and general observation and then grew with the discussions that followed. Some intrepid soul would dig into something that had struck them as worthy of investigation and then it would be 'out there' to be tested and torn and tried and, maybe, if worthy, true.

One of the things I remember, impact(fully), was the discovery - it seemed like a discovery, given that it flew full in the face of conventional wisdom at the time - was that Sergei Gonchar and Zigmund Palffy were great ALL AROUND talents.

Somewhere along the way someone(s) did the work and pointed out that those two weren't just point machines. They were, truly, great players in their own right.

From that moment on the gulf between the Oilogosphere-types and the HF fanboy's became self-evident and, despite a golden run put in by LT and Cerebral and others (as mods at HF) it was only a matter of time before the Tyler Dellows and Vic Ferrari's of the world left HF behind.

Of course, now there is Behind the Net (and the great Gabriel Desjardins) and the Oilogosphere and all this type of stuff is easier to see, understand and tabulate BUT, way back when, there was a time when that kind of knowledge was, almost, mini-revolutionary.

Just a few hours ago Sergei Gonchar won the Stanley Cup. He is, quite probably, the 5th best defenseman playing in the NHL today. You wouldn't know it. He still doesn't get the respect he deserves but at least now he has claim to the Stanley Cup.

About f&*king time.

I called the Wings but sometimes I am perfectly happy being wrong.

You quit too soon Ziggy. Sorry man.


On Heatley

Matheson references the cost for Heatley as being a talented puck-moving d-man, a top-6 (young) forward and a top-10 draft pick. That is a stupid trade to make. Tambellini makes that trade and he has done something stupid. I cannot say it plainer. Even IF Ottawa sends a pick back with Heatley.

Too damn much to give up.

A winning trade for Edmonton, one that takes into account the Cap-hit barrel that Heatley's contract tosses Bryan Murray over, is:

Penner, Staios and Eberle

Murray saves a LOT of money, a little bit of Cap space in the short term ($550k), gets a contract MUCH easier to trade than Heatley's and a highly regarded prospect at the same time.

That is enough for me to give up (though I could be persuaded to throw in a prospect like Chorney and/or a middle rounds draft pick). If Murray can get better elsewhere then good on him.

My advice: focus on getting Bouwmeester, and if you really need a better LW (and we do) scoop Malone out of Tampa Bay.


On Tampa Bay

Speaking of Tampa Bay. Sending Vinny to LA for Johnson, the #5 and a guy like Handzus just makes too much sense. Anything more is bonus.

Stamkos (whom I was wrong about), Hedman and Schenn make for a pretty sweet rebuild starter-kit.

Of course, at one point in time, Johnson and the #5 were headed to Anaheim for Pronger (not a horrible trade actually).


Have a great evening everyone.


Bruce said...

It started with +/- and TOI (still one of my all time favorite stats)

YKOil: Mine too. Back in the day (80s, early 90s) I use to constantly decry the lack of information about ice time. Useful information in and of itself, I said, and will potentially put all of the other stats in the valuable context of a per-unit-time output.

Years later, am pleased to say that pretty much all of those potentials are now being realized, or can be if one makes an effort.

Nice comments on Gonchar, one of the game's more underrated players for more than a few years. Besides his wonderful on-ice play, sounds like he's done yeoman service helping Malkin acclimatize. Malkin's comfort level has rather obviously blossomed, and Gonchar had a big role in that.

Jon said...

Nice post.

At least with Heatley we know what we are getting. I do not look forward to July 1st... I dread it as an Oiler fan. Remember Nylander. Heatley will be worth his contract for two seasons (40-50 goals), will be overpaid for two seasons (20-30 )and the middle year he will probably break even (30-40).

To me that is worth either two things

1.) Penner Gilbert, a good prospect.

2.) A three way to SJ with Souray, Penner, Good prospect.

On Malone: We do not need anymore complimentary players making over 4 million please. More difference makers.

On J-Bo: who says we can sign him? Don't drink the kool-aid, he'll go to some team for 8 million a year and we cannot have that kind of contract hamstring us. If, and it's a big if, he has whispered in Tambo's ear that he wants to sign here then give him a franzen deal, but I am not holding my breath

Pronger, Weight, Arnott, Those are the only difference makers I can recall in the last 10 years. If Heatley is available for that asking price then make the deal. If they want more, then walk away

YKOil said...

Lidstrom playing after testicle surgery and Gonchar playing with torn ligaments.

Wow. Just wow.

I think we can sign J-Bo but I don't believe we will - some other GM will blow us out of the water.

Penner and Malone makes for a pretty nice LW combo on the top-2 lines.

I agree however - there are better ways to spend the money.

We know exactly what we will be paying but not exactly what we will be getting.

Guy only had the new coach for half a season and he wants out?

Arnott wasn't a difference maker while he was here. I cannot advise an overpay for Heatley; period.