This is my second look at the 2008 UFAs. My first post on the subject was here:
2008 UFA's - A First Look
There will be few 'preview' style posts for this UFA class (from myself that is) as I just don't see the value in the group this year. Only a handful of the players available are even worth investigating imo and so, to that end I will only list those players I deem:
a. available and/or
b. of interest to me and/or
c. just plain interesting as a signing
So no Sergei Federov listed, as I expect him to sign with Washington, and no Steve Kelly listed , as his numbers aren't good enough (in any sense) to make me think he is a player worth signing. Malone is now off my list because he is going to be far too expensive a signing and likewise for Hossa, Jagr, Campbell and Redden.
Numbers listed (in order) are: age, last contract, games played, counting numbers, overall TOI, powerplay TOI, shorthanded TOI and Desjardin numbers (EV rating, Quality of competition and quality of teammates).
Anyways, without further ado,FORWARDS
Gelinas ..... 38 .. $ 2.85 .. 57gm ... 9g.11a (20) .. +5
________ 14.06 .. 0.38 .. 1.38 ... +0.36 .. +0.02 .. -0.14
Sundin ...... 37 .. $ 5.50 .. 74gm .. 32g.46a (78) .. +17
________ 20.04 .. 4.25 .. 1.08 ... +1.60 .. +0.08 .. +0.25
Holik ....... 37 .. $ 4.25 .. 82gm .. 15g.19a (34) .. -14
________ 15.58 .. 1.47 .. 1.15 ... +0.11 .. +0.03 .. +0.04
Conroy ...... 37 .. $ 2.85 .. 79gm .. 12g.22a (34) .. +6
________ 17.09 .. 1.54 .. 2.29 ... +0.62 .. +0.07 .. 0.37
Naslund ..... 35 .. $ 6.00 .. 82gm .. 25g.30a (55) .. -7
________ 17.23 .. 3.35 .. 0.03 ... +0.02 .. -0.03 .. +0.12
Stillman .... 35 .. $ 1.75 .. 79gm .. 24g.41a (65) .. -15
________ 18.58 .. 4.07 .. 1.05 ... -0.08 .. +0.05 .. -0.03
Brunette .... 35 .. $ 1.60 .. 82gm .. 19g.40a (59) .. +5
________ 15.32 .. 3.07 .. 0.01 ... +0.54 .. +0.01 .. +0.03
Demitra ..... 34 .. $ 4.50 .. 68gm .. 15g.39a (54) .. +9
________ 19.42 .. 3.29 .. 1.37 ... +0.89 .. -0.02 .. +0.25
Satan ....... 34 .. $ 4.23 .. 80gm .. 16g.25a (41) .. -11
________ 18.19 .. 3.54 .. 0.43 ... +0.82 .. -0.00 .. +0.02
Pandolpho ... 34 .. $ 0.84 .. 54gm .. 12g.12a (24) .. +10
________ 17.16 .. 0.27 .. 2.59 ... +0.85 .. +0.16 .. +0.12
Kapanen ..... 30 .. $ 0.85 .. 79gm .. 10g.18a (28) .. -1
________ 13.14 .. 2.17 .. 0.12 ... +0.26 .. -0.03 .. -0.00
Fedotenko ... 29 .. $ 2.90 .. 67gm .. 16g.17a (33) .. -9
________ 16.41 .. 2.13 .. 0.56 ... -0.11 .. +0.06 .. -0.10
Dupuis ...... 29 .. $ 0.88 .. 78gm .. 12g.15a (27) .. +0
________ 15.11 .. 0.18 .. 2.36 ... +0.16 .. +0.02 .. -0.00
Hagman ...... 29 .. $ 0.68 .. 82gm .. 27g.14a (41) .. +4
________ 15.35 .. 2.21 .. 2.11 ... -0.26 .. -0.00 .. -0.13
Tjarnqvist .. 29 .. $ 0.46 .. 78gm ... 4g..7a (11) .. -1
________ 13.38 .. 0.07 .. 3.05 ... +0.29 .. +0.03 .. -0.09
Ryder ...... 28 .. $ 2.95 .. 70gm .. 14g.17a (31) .. -4
________ 13.14 .. 2.07 .. 0.05 ... -0.36 .. +0.06 .. -0.16
Williams .... 28 .. $ 1.60 .. 43gm .. 13g.23a (36) .. -2
________ 16.34 .. 4.21 .. 0.22 ... +0.55 .. +0.04 .. +0.28
Vasicek ..... 28 .. $ 0.75 .. 81gm .. 16g.19a (35) .. +1
________ 15.51 .. 1.24 .. 1.24 ... +0.70 .. +0.03 .. +0.07
Glencross ... 26 .. $ 0.53 .. 62gm .. 15g.10a (25) .. +8
________ 11.21 .. 0.54 .. 2.41 ... +0.91 .. -0.05 .. -0.15
DEFENSEMEN
Modry ....... 37 .. $ 1.20 .. 42gm ... 1g..8a (9) ... -9
________ 19.03 .. 0.31 .. 2.43 ... +0.03 .. +0.01 .. -0.02
Smith ....... 35 .. $ 1.98 .. 77gm ... 1g..9a (10) .. -4
________ 17.56 .. 0.08 .. 2.54 ... -0.03 .. -0.03 .. +0.07
Malik ....... 33 .. $ 2.50 .. 42gm ... 2g..8a (10) .. +7
________ 19.14 .. 0.14 .. 2.39 ... +1.07 .. +0.06 .. -0.02
Salvador .... 32 .. $ 1.40 .. 64gm ... 1g.10a (11) .. +12
________ 19.47 .. 0.08 .. 3.23 ... +0.48 .. +0.09 .. -0.17
Roszival .... 30 .. $ 2.10 .. 80gm .. 13g.25a (38) .. +0
________ 24.33 .. 3.47 .. 2.58 ... -0.11 .. +0.05 .. +0.10
Mara ........ 29 .. $ 3.00 .. 61gm ... 1g.16a (17) .. +1
________ 17.53 .. 2.16 .. 1.42 ... +0.01 .. -0.00 .. -0.09
Commodore ... 29 .. $ 1.25 .. 67gm ... 3g.11a (14) .. -7
________ 18.12 .. 0.22 .. 3.00 ... +0.11 .. +0.01 .. -0.05
Finger ...... 29 .. $ 0.48 .. 72gm ... 8g.11a (19) .. +12
________ 19.57 .. 1.03 .. 2.18 ... +0.40 .. -0.06 .. -0.07
Vandermeer .. 28 .. $ 1.23 .. 75gm ... 3g.14a (17) .. +6
________ 19.38 .. 1.29 .. 2.25 ... +0.56 .. -0.05 .. +0.11
Hainsey ..... 27 .. $ 0.74 .. 78gm ... 8g.24a (32) .. -7
________ 22.33 .. 4.28 .. 1.30 ... -0.58 .. -0.00 .. +0.02
Sauer ....... 27 .. $ 0.72 .. 54gm ... 1g..5a (7) ... +17
________ 18.41 .. 0.05 .. 3.10 ... +1.29 .. +0.12 .. -0.02
HONORABLE MENTIONS
-- Randy Robitaille (underwhelming center who won't embarrass / very affordable and has some veteran savvy),
-- Andre Roy (4th line enforcer who won't cost much / can easily cover his minimal game time)
-- Ryan Johnson (slightly less skilled, slightly cheaper, version of Randy Robitaille)
-- Mike Weaver (cheap, veteran defender who is an obvious step up from standard AHL call-up fodder)CLASS OF THE FIELD
Sundin is the man.
Where I can look at Campbell and say that anything more than 6 mill or so /yr is a probable overpay (likewise for the rest of the 'name' UFAs) I can look at Sundin and say he is worth every penny he will make, from whatever team signs him, almost regardless of amount.
The guy is amazing. By every measure he is a superior player. Every one. If an established team, like Montreal, secures his name on a contract then Montreal is my new Cup favorite come the 2008-09 season.
A phenomenal player. The only issue with Sundin? Having to carry sad sack rosters in Toronto all these years. That is it.GREY POWER
The first thing that comes to mind, when I look at this list, is just how 'old' most of these players are. Commentators may wax poetic about the sinking UFA age but the majority of impact UFA signings will still involve players well over 30 years old.
If you look at my measures I tend to value counting numbers (a starting point), Desjardin numbers (for insight), and TOI numbers (for insight). After that it is all about context, strategy and tactics.
The players I have listed are the guys who, typically, show the good value characteristics - hence it is interesting that most of those are players nearer the end of their career rather than players 'in their primes'.
A team that really wants to have a solid shot at the Cup, but misses out on Hossa, et al would probably do well to see if they can sign some combination of Gelinas, Holik, Conroy, etc. Get three of the greys on this list for 5 million or so (combined) and you have a decent 3rd line that play above its weight when required.
Serious Cup contenders have solid depth throughout their line-up and if you don't have a whack of Spitfires coming up from the minors then maybe a set of old B-17's are the just the ticket to deal with what ails you.
(and yes, I know one is a british fighter plane and the other is an american bomber - just let it flow okay?)
------
Have a great evening everyone.
Note that I have borrowed liberally from TSN, the NHL and Eliteprospects.com. The photo above is from the Leader_Post. All credit is due them.
Oilers didn't make any moves and in an atmosphere of highly inflated costs, while operating with less-than-normal-value assets, this was the right move to make.
Unlike last year, where they took a bunch of sleeper picks with their late rounders, this year the management team went for safe picks. Guys who should make, at the least, the AHL team. This is totally okay. Sometimes you have to change where you fish.
Without further ado, at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft the Edmonton Oilers draft picks were:
022 - Jordan Eberle
C
Shoots: R
1990 Birthyear
5'10" / 174 lbs
Canada
Top-6 skill player. Numbers are very impressive given team and conference. Good equivalencies. I like the pick. He projects out well, wasn't a reach at where he was chosen and has the skills needed to play. Issue is that he is small both in height and weight - since he doesn't have blazing speed (Cogliano) or phenomenal skills (Gagner) he will have to be really, REALLY smart (which he reportedly is) to play to form. That said, a good choice.
From NHL Central Scouting: Jordan is a slippery scorer with great hands. Jordan is an up-and-down the wing tease in the sense that sometimes he'll look like he's just going up and down the wing and you have him slotted as a checker and then he'll cut in off the wing and use that shot to put his team up a goal. He needs to improve a little bit on his consistency, in that sometimes his up and down game gets too frequent and he has to learn that all his good skills can't be hidden – he has to use them more often.
From TSN: A somewhat under-sized centre, Eberle is considered one of the smartest offensive players in the draft. He is a better goal-scorer than a playmaker and is an elusive talent when he has the puck. There are some questions about his speed, but he does have quickness, especially in tight situations and one-on-ones.
103 - Johan Motin
D
Shoots: L
1989 Birthyear
6'1" / 202 lbs
Sweden
3rd pair defensive defenseman. Decent size and was (very) highly regarded just the year before. Decent game by all reports but stalled in 2007-08. Which is the issue - did the engine cough a little or did the transmission drop out? The Eliteprospects.com review does not lend itself to hope but an independent blog scores him well (go to Illegal Curve for the full read). Interesting pick imo as the team is chock full of puckmover d-prospects so maybe it was time for a stay-at-home (you know... BPA).
From Eliteprospects.com: Motin is a stay-at-home defenseman with very good size and strength. He has the potential to become a bruising defenseman if he develops his physical game. At this point, his is inconsistent when it comes to playing the body and should act with more resolution and confidence along the boards and in front of his goalie. Offensively, there is little to say about Motin. He does not have the fundamental skills to contribute in a big way in terms of points and hockey sense is limited to playing it safe in his own end. Motin’s puck skills are rather average and on the downside, mobility and speed could use some improvement.
From Illegal Curve: ... defender who is likely close to NHL ready. He has already played half a season in the Swedish Elite League and boasts a steady, mature game ... Not an overly offensive player, Motin does have a good shot and offensive instincts, but plays more of a solid 2-way game and leans a little to the defensive. He has all the tools that you hear scouts repeat when talking about defenseman that they like: size, strength, mobility, lateral quickness, instincts and hockey sense.
133 - Philippe Cornet
C/LW
Shoots: L
1990 Birthyear
6'0" / 173 lbs
Canada
Top-6 or bust skill winger from the QMJHL. Offense orientated and seems to have the skills but not necessarily the numbers. Not a bruiser by any means but I haven't seen much that outright labels him as 'soft' - so that is interesting. One of those 'waddya want from a 5th round pick?' kind of picks.
From NHL Central Scouting: ... moves the puck well, especially on the power-play. While not a great skater – he has a short stride – he can keep up the pace in a quick game with some deceptive speed. He is not an overly physical player and needs to work on winning the one-on-one battles to take his game to the next level.
163 - Teemu Hartikainen
C
Shoots: L
1990 Birthyear
6'1" / 198 lbs
Finland
(Maybe the guy in the Kalpa banner is him?)
Hard working 4th line winger who will need a skill to stick in the NHL. First of all, he is a Finn. For some reason, in my brain, that equals good. By all accounts (i.e. the chatter) he is a hardworking guy, has heart, has brains, uses his body effectively, will block shots and knows how to play at both ends at both ends of the ice. The problem is that he is slow. I like a pick like this because it means that IF the guy can develop better skating he can be an impact energy guy with upside - and that is all you really want from a 6th round pick anyways.
From NHL Central Scouting: nothing reported.
From Eliteprospects.com: nothing reported.
193 - Jordan Bendfeld
D
Shoots: R
1988 Birthyear
6'2" / 216 lbs
Canada
Seventh defenseman. 20 yr old bruiser who will slip into a Falcons jersey sooner rather than later. Draft re-entry this pick was all about filling a need in Sprinfield. While it is okay to use 7th round picks for that sort thing it shouldn't become a habit; taking a flyer on a skill player who could turn out is probably a better way to go imo.
From NHL Central Scouting: nothing reported.
From Eliteprospects.com: nothing reported.
------
Have a great evening everyone.
The more I think about this draft the more 'meh' I am with it - at least as far as the performance of the Oilers go that is. First off we have some opening trades that affected the initial draft order:
a. Calgary trades the #17 pick to LA for Camalleri and then sends Tanguay to Montreal for the #25 pick. LA now has the #2 pick, the 17th and the 28th while Calgary has #25.
b. Columbus trades the #19 pick and the #67 pick to Philadelphia for Umberger and the #118 pick. Philly now has the #19 pick.
01 ... TAM ... Stamkos
02 ... LAK ... Doughty
03 ... ATL ... Bogosian
04 ... STL ... Pietrangelo
The first 4 picks are all as advertised. Stamkos and the big D. Tampa and Atlanta have so many needs that they probably would have been better served by making a trade but the prospects they picked up are solid so I can't knock them too much.
Remember last year when I slammed LA for not making the easy trade down with Hickey topping their list (they took him at #4 when a trade down to #8 was an easy call)? Well...
This year the Islanders are in the same position but actually make the trade down (and escape my wrath for doing so). The Islanders trade down and send their #5 pick to Toronto for the #7 and one of two packages:
a. the 60th in 2008 and a (2009) 3rd rounder, or
b. the 68th in 2008 and a (2009) 2nd rounder
At the time of the trade the next 5 highest ranked prospects, per the aggregated method, available are, in order: Filatov (61 pts), Schenn (50 pts), Boedker (38 pts), Hodgson (32 pts) and Wilson (28 pts). Filatov and Schenn were ranked in the top-10 of all lists involved while Boedker and Hodgson showed up on 4 out of 5 lists. Wilson only showed on two top-10 lists.
Obviously the Islanders could slide here and still get a very talented player. Good trade.
05 ... TOR ... Schenn
06 ... CLB ... Filatov
Toronto, in giving up three prime assets to secure a player that most consider NOT to be one of the top-5 impact players in his own draft year, is now committed to a long, hard rebuild. Wow. I love Schenn but that was costly. [Editor's note: McGuire has to shut the hell up. Seriously.] Good for the Islanders.
Columbus, having traded earlier for Umberger (great trade) pick up a skill guy in Filatov. Columbus still has huge problems in terms of overall depth on the team but this is a good pick. Gamebreakers are a must have in the NHL and the last two of that 'type' left are Filatov and Boedker.
So with the 7th pick the NY Islanders choose... to trade it to the Predators for the 9th overall pick and the 40th overall pick. Interesting. The Isles may screw up the pick but there is no question management is maximizing the trade value of that original #5 pick.
At the time of the trade the next 5 highest ranked prospects, per the aggregated method, available are, in order: Boedker (38 pts), Hodgson (32 pts), Wilson (28 pts), Myers (23 pts) and Petrov (18 pts). All show up on two or more top-10 lists but look at the point spreads - some serious drop off happening.
So the Islanders are going off the Board a little. Hope it works for them.
07 ... NAS ... Wilson
08 ... PHO ... Boedker
09 ... NYI ... Bailey
Wilson and Boedker are solid for where they are and, to be fair, Bailey isn't THAT far off the Board. He was top-10 on one list (ISS) and if I recall correctly (and I do) at least one guy pegged Bailey as an 'under the radar' high-quality pick.
So... I have to say that I am quietly impressed with what the Islander's managed to pull off here.
I would have been FAR more impressed however if they had managed to trade down one more time by scaring the pants off Vancouver and making them think they would never see Hodgson again... alas, the triple trade down remains an event rarely seen.
10 ... VAN ... Hodgson
11 ... CHI ... Beach
The maneuvering continues.
LA trades the #17 and the #28 to Anaheim for the 12th overall pick...
... and then ...
trades the #12 to Buffalo for the 13th overall and a 3rd round pick in 2009.
You have got to be kidding me. LA gives up some premium assets just to move up 5 spots while Buffalo, for some odd reason, decides to reward LA by allowing them to snag a pick for dropping back one spot. Anaheim, meanwhile, strikes gold.
Crazy. Hard to be too disparaging of any of the three teams because they all got what they wanted (I guess) but there is a clear ranking of winners here: Anaheim, LA and then Buffalo. Buffalo comes last because they should have called LA's bluff.
Reading between the lines this is a clear cut case of Burke's reputation allowing him to get the best of his fellow GM's. Myers and Teubert match Burke's preferences perfectly and LA just couldn't take the chance one of them would survive Anaheim and then Buffalo's picks.
Ottawa makes the next move and trades the #18 and a 3rd round pick in 2009 to Nashville for the #15 pick. This is a helluva draft day. Call this a win for Ottawa. They gave up less than everyone else has so far today.
12 ... BUF ... Myers
13 ... LAK ... Teubert
14 ... CAR ... Boychuk
15 ... OTT ... Karlsson
16 ... BOS ... Colborne
I hereby predict that Colborne will have an identity crisis as a prospect developing for Boston. He doesn't crash boards enough to be a Cam Neely or John LeClair type and he doesn't camp the net like a Dave Andreychuk would so, simply put, they got a really big guy who they hope can play one day.
As much as that is true of many a draft pick the question remains: Just who is he? A poor man's Joe Thornton? Do they even want THAT guy? The pressure on Colborne could be huge. I kid you not.
I can't help but think that Carolina's pick is the one LA should have targeted.
17 ... ANA ... Gardiner
18 ... NAS ... Pickard
19 ... PHI ... Sbisa
20 ... NYR ... Del Zotto
The draft has seen a whirlwind of trade activity but, as of yet, there haven't been any big surprises. No Niinimaki's and no Wheeler's to be seen. After four, relatively uneventful, picks the trade winds start blowing again with two trades made in the next 6 picks:
Washington trades the 23rd and 54th picks to New Jersey for the 21st overall pick,
and then
New Jersey trades that same 23rd pick to Minnesota for the 24th overall and a 3rd round pick in 2009.
21 ... WAS ... Gustafsson
22 ... EDM ... Eberle
23 ... MIN ... Cuma
24 ... NJD ... Tedenby
25 ... CAL ... Nemisz
26 ... BUF ... Ennis
3rd round picks (2008 or 2009) seem a little busy this draft day.
So Buffalo moves up one pick and I give 'em grief. Minnesota makes the same move and not a peep. Why? Simple. LA moved up hard for a shot at the guy they wanted - why do so and then waffle about it? I repeat, Buffalo should have passed.
Minnesota, otoh, couldn't be sure as to how far the Devils were willing to trade back. Better to nail it down and get it over with. The Devils did very well. Got the guy they wanted and two more picks.
The last two trades, from the draft floor that evening, come quickly:
Philadelphia trades the 27th overall pick to Minnesota for Eminger and the 84th overall,
and
Anaheim trades the 28th overall to Phoenix for the 35th and 39th picks.
27 ... WAS ... Carlson
28 ... PHO ... Tikhonov
29 ... ATL ... Leveille
30 ... DET ... McCollum
Anaheim, again, does well. Really well. Not so impressed with Philly's deal. Eminger has had several HORRIBLE years in a row now. He will need to rebound... hell with that... guy needs to relearn how to play the game he has been so bad.
Funny thing here. Tikhonov could have been had last year for any old 7th round pick.
------
The winners are (in order):
-- Montreal (Tanguay is that good imo),
-- Columbus (pays to be harmless),
-- New York Islanders (great maneuvers),
-- Anaheim (killer instinct),
-- New Jersey (did well),
-- Tikhonov.
The losers are (in order):
-- Calgary (Tanguay is that good imo),
-- Toronto (for a defensive d-man?),
-- Buffalo (baited and bit)
Montreal and Columbus, in getting Tanguay and Umberger respectively, are the big winners on draft day. Established, strong, players for draft picks - and not even the good ones - is always the best way to go.
-- for dropping 4 spots the Islanders snag 3 high quality picks (that 2nd rounder from Toronto in 2009 will be sweet) and get a nice prospect to boot. Very nice by any measure.
-- for the sake of developing a reputation Anaheim drops 5 spots and comes out of it with the skilled defenseman they wanted and 2 great 2nd round picks.
-- for the joy of dropping 3 spots New Jersey picks up 2 more draft picks and a nice offense-first winger.
Good work by Snow, Burke and Lamoriello imo.
As for the Oilers:
As I said. Meh. I like Eberle. They like Eberle. They didn't pay extra to get him. Moving up would have cost more than it was worth for the players I liked (Schenn, Bailey and Myers) so how can I be upset?
Maybe if Bailey had dropped to 18th or so I might be raising an eyebrow but as it stands it was an okay draft for Lowe and Co. imo.
------
Have a great evening everyone.
For archive purposes I am compiling my NHL Entry Draft (2008) stuff here. As with last year's NHL Entry Draft (2007) archive, this first post acts as a primer that contains the set-up info of interest going into the draft.
Links to the other two articles in this series:
NHL Entry Draft 2008 - First Round Review
NHL Entry Draft 2008 - Oiler Picks
------
Personal Thoughts
-- Stamkos - good player who won't live up to his draft pick
-- Filatov - spoiler pick for best career
-- Schenn - best 'safe' bet in the draft imo and a favorite of mine
-- Boedker - another personal favorite
-- Colborne - tied with Beach & Petrov for riskiest picks of the round
-- Petrov - only notable for how late he will be picked
I believe that this is the kind of draft where trading into the top-14 will net best value on the dollar. The sweet spot being in the 9-12 range. I do not expect Schenn or Boedker to make it that far but all it takes is a couple of off-the-board picks (Hickey) and suddenly a jump is possible.
Trading up to get a guy like Stamkos just isn't worth it but Lowe does have the assets to make a trade and get into the sweet spot area I mentioned.
i.e. a roster player and the 22nd should be enough to jump some 8 to 12 spots
What do I expect? I expect we shall see Lowe stand pat or trade a guy like Torres or Stoll for a couple of 2nd round picks.
------
Without further ado...
Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)
01 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
01 -- _22 ... Trade with Anaheim (Pronger)
02 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
03 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
04 -- 103
05 -- 133
06 -- 163
07 -- 193
Remember to adjust for compensation picks.
Team Order - 1st Round
01.. Tampa Bay
02.. Los Angeles
03.. Atlanta
04.. St. Louis
05.. NY Islanders
06.. Columbus
07.. Toronto
08.. Phoenix
09.. Nashville ...... via ... Florida
10.. Vancouver
11.. Chicago
12.. Anaheim ........ via ... Edmonton
13.. Buffalo
14.. Carolina
15.. Nashville
16.. Boston
17.. Calgary
18.. Ottawa
19.. Columbus ....... via ... Colorado
20.. NY Rangers
21.. New Jersey
22.. Edmonton ....... via ... Anaheim
23.. Washington
24.. Minnesota
25.. Montreal
26.. Buffalo ........ via ... San Jose
27.. Philadelphia
28.. Los Angeles .... via ... Dallas
29.. Atlanta ........ via ... Pittsburgh
30.. Detroit
Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)
Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).
Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.
Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.
The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)
... McKeens ..... ISS ......... Redline ..... Hockey News . CSB**
1.. Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos
2.. Bogosian .... Bogosian .... Filatov ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian
3.. Pietrange. .. Filatov ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian ... *Filatov
4.. Doughty ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian .... Filatov ..... Doughty
5.. Schenn ...... Pietrange. .. Boedker ..... Pietrange. .. Myers
6.. Boedker ..... Schenn ...... Schenn ...... Schenn ..... *Petrov
7.. Filatov ..... Boedker ..... Pietrange. .. Wilson ...... Schenn
8.. Picard ...... Wilson ...... Petrov ...... Hodgson ..... Pietrange.
9.. Hodgson ..... Hodgson ..... Hodgson ..... Boedker .... *Tedenby
10. Karlsson .... Bailey ...... Myers ....... Beach ....... Beach
11. Bailey ...... Sbisa ....... Wilson ...... Myers ....... Boychuk
12. Wilson ...... Boychuk ..... Tedenby ..... Boychuk .... *Karlsson
13. Markstrom ... Beach ....... Boychuk ..... Teubert ..... Hodgson
14. Teubert ..... Tedenby ..... Beach ....... Bailey ...... Wilson
15. Sbisa ....... Myers ....... Bailey ...... Del Zotto ... Boedker
Graded Rankings
.......... Top-10 . Scoring
Stamkos ..... 5 ___ 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 75
Bogosian .... 5 ___ 14 + 14 + 12 + 13 + 14 = 67
Doughty ..... 5 ___ 12 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 12 = 63
Filatov ..... 5 ___ 09 + 13 + 14 + 12 + 13 = 61
Pietrangelo . 5 ___ 13 + 11 + 09 + 11 + 08 = 52
Schenn ...... 5 ___ 11 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 09 = 50
Boedker ..... 4 ___ 10 + 09 + 11 + 07 + 01 = 38
Hodgson ..... 4 ___ 07 + 07 + 07 + 08 + 03 = 32
Wilson ...... 2 ___ 04 + 08 + 05 + 09 + 02 = 28
Myers ....... 2 ___ 00 + 01 + 06 + 05 + 11 = 23
Petrov ...... 2 ___ 00 + 00 + 08 + 00 + 10 = 18
Beach ....... 1 ___ 00 + 03 + 02 + 06 + 06 = 17
Boychuk ..... 0 ___ 00 + 04 + 03 + 04 + 05 = 17
Bailey ...... 1 ___ 05 + 06 + 01 + 02 + 00 = 14
Tedenby ..... 1 ___ 00 + 02 + 04 + 00 + 07 = 13
Karlsson .... 1 ___ 06 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 04 = 10
Picard ...... 1 ___ 08 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 08
Sbisa ....... 0 ___ 01 + 05 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 06
Teubert ..... 0 ___ 02 + 00 + 00 + 03 + 00 = 05
Markstrom ... 0 ___ 03 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 03
Del Zotto
The big 4: Stamkos, Bogosian, Doughty & Filatov
Next best thing: Pietrangelo, Schenn
Could be Good: Boedker, Hodgson & Wilson
Afterthoughts: Myers, Petrov, Beach, Boychuk & everyone else
A Rule Of Thumb
When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.
Bailey has 14 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Myers by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Wilson or Boedker.
Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:
-- Excepting that Tampa has signalled Stamkos, Bogosian could go #1
-- Filatov could overtake Bogosian and Doughty but Pietrangelo could not
-- If anyone ranked below Wilson is chosen in the top-7 it SHOULD be a major surprise
-- If anyone ranked below Bailey is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake
------
** CSS does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.
------
Have a great evening everyone, and enjoy the draft.
Edmonton Oilers
2007 Version
Historical Review of Draft Results
Introduction
Please leave your comments here.
This is opposite the rest of the pages where I kindly ask that you withhold comment until I am done... I apologize for how long this took to produce.
Welcome to the 2007 edition of the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review. It is a comprehensive study of the draft history of the Edmonton Oilers NHL Hockey team. Two earlier editions of this study/review have been produced (by myself) in 2000 and in 2003. The 2000 study is, I believe, still archived at www.Oilfans.com.
The version you are looking at now is a complete upgrade of the original study (2000) and a minor upgrade of the second (2003).
This is a very long article/study. I review the last 29 years of the Edmonton Oilers draft history, grade every player on their performance as a hockey player, and then dissect that information into six (7) key analysis groups so that I can measure the success of the organization in terms of: Draft Year, Draft Pick, Draft Round, Player Age When Drafted, Drafting by Position, Developmental League and Nationality.
"... grade every player on their performance as a hockey player... ". This is very important and I will devote an entire chapter (the 'Player Grading System') of this review to that goal. For now I will limit my comments to a single, pertinent point: This study is concerned with the organizations ability to draft talent - how that player played for the Oilers or what 'value' that player had in relation to trades made (for example) is irrelevant.
While every page of this review will have some of my commentary on it, I am leaving much of the analysis open for discussion. Take from it what you will. This is, as far as I know, the most complete study of its kind anywhere and there is an amazing amount of ancillary work that could be done with a data set like this - go to town.
"... It is, after all, my work." Please keep that in mind, not just for purposes of copyright, but for purposes of simple etiquette as well. Feel free to critique - just don't be an ass about it.
Thanks.
Chapter links can be found below. The study is best read by following the links in order.
Without further ado, I invite you to read and enjoy, the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review (2007) Edition.
------
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes
------
Have a great evening everyone.
Edmonton Oilers
2007 Version
Historical Review of Draft Results
Results by Draft Year
Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.
The first table takes the player-grading system (please check that section for more clarification if needed) and applies it to each draft-year. This results in a series of positive and negative scores that indicate the degree of success the organization had in each draft year.
A second table (see below) is then used to assign a grade those scores - i.e. 1979 and 1996 may both have a positive score but even the village idiot will tell you that 1979 was a much better draft year. Loosely based on the player-grading system it serves to organize and summarize our information.
On a year-to-year basis it becomes easier to understand what has hurt the Oilers organization at the draft table - they fail too big. Yes, the team has three spectacular draft years. It also has one, absolutely disastrous, draft year and a host of other significant failures. Many of the Oilers passing grades are borderline in nature (once you get past the hall of fame years) while the vast majority of the 'failing grade years' are bad or really, really bad.
One more observation. If you look carefully at the results you will notice that the most successful years of the organization (in terms of hockey played) were a direct result of having several successful draft years in succession (79 / 80 / 81). Since then the Oilers organization has not had any stretch of drafts back-to-back that were successful. 1993 was a good year, but it stood alone and the impact it had could not be sustained.
Question: Ladislav Benysek only made the league because of expansion - just how many freebie points did this team get because expansion made players out of nobodies and extended the careers of others? Answer: Probably lots.
However, consider this - without the expansion teams diluting the draft pool the Oilers may have made some much better draft choices. Overall I have to believe that those two factors cancel each other out.
Question: When I add up all of the scoring numbers you generated for each year I get an average score of +137, doesn't this mean that the Oilers have a successful draft history? Answer: No.
Points are weighted to years and the number of players. Drafting six hall of fame players out of 300 draft picks doesn't mean much overall but in that particular draft year it makes a huge impact and it skews the average up accordingly.
Question: Pisani, Lombardi and Stoll are all rated as 'journeymen' - way better than that aren't they? Answer: Yes, but time is a big factor in this.
All three are early into their careers and none have dominating years on their resume (Stoll's PP boosted year perhaps?). Two years from now, given consistent performance, I would be hard-pressed NOT to have them rated as 'solid' players. Look at the Changes To Data Set chart for reference
Question: Is there ANY hope at all? Answer: Yeah. Always is.
Been a long time since the team had two 'Star' level prospects on the team (Cogs and Gagner) and if any three of Chorney, Dubnyk, Nash, Petry, Pouliot (I'll remain on that bandwagon), Schremp or Wild actually reach potential this team could put together some solid years. I will also retain hope for personal faves Quist and Spurgeon.
------
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes
------
Have a great evening everyone.
