Friday, 12 June 2009

Congratulations to the Penguins


One of Two

I can't claim to have been here since the beginning - that honor belongs to guys like LT and MJ and the like - but I have been around a long, long time (it was soon after I moved up here, 1997 or so I guess). One of the things I remember, in the course of time, was the development of the mind-set, now prevalent in the Oilogosphere, of 'what-the-f%ck-is-really-going-on?'.

It started with +/- and TOI (still one of my all time favorite stats) and general observation and then grew with the discussions that followed. Some intrepid soul would dig into something that had struck them as worthy of investigation and then it would be 'out there' to be tested and torn and tried and, maybe, if worthy, true.

One of the things I remember, impact(fully), was the discovery - it seemed like a discovery, given that it flew full in the face of conventional wisdom at the time - was that Sergei Gonchar and Zigmund Palffy were great ALL AROUND talents.

Somewhere along the way someone(s) did the work and pointed out that those two weren't just point machines. They were, truly, great players in their own right.

From that moment on the gulf between the Oilogosphere-types and the HF fanboy's became self-evident and, despite a golden run put in by LT and Cerebral and others (as mods at HF) it was only a matter of time before the Tyler Dellows and Vic Ferrari's of the world left HF behind.

Of course, now there is Behind the Net (and the great Gabriel Desjardins) and the Oilogosphere and all this type of stuff is easier to see, understand and tabulate BUT, way back when, there was a time when that kind of knowledge was, almost, mini-revolutionary.

Just a few hours ago Sergei Gonchar won the Stanley Cup. He is, quite probably, the 5th best defenseman playing in the NHL today. You wouldn't know it. He still doesn't get the respect he deserves but at least now he has claim to the Stanley Cup.

About f&*king time.

I called the Wings but sometimes I am perfectly happy being wrong.

You quit too soon Ziggy. Sorry man.

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On Heatley

Matheson references the cost for Heatley as being a talented puck-moving d-man, a top-6 (young) forward and a top-10 draft pick. That is a stupid trade to make. Tambellini makes that trade and he has done something stupid. I cannot say it plainer. Even IF Ottawa sends a pick back with Heatley.

Too damn much to give up.

A winning trade for Edmonton, one that takes into account the Cap-hit barrel that Heatley's contract tosses Bryan Murray over, is:

Heatley
FOR
Penner, Staios and Eberle

Murray saves a LOT of money, a little bit of Cap space in the short term ($550k), gets a contract MUCH easier to trade than Heatley's and a highly regarded prospect at the same time.

That is enough for me to give up (though I could be persuaded to throw in a prospect like Chorney and/or a middle rounds draft pick). If Murray can get better elsewhere then good on him.

My advice: focus on getting Bouwmeester, and if you really need a better LW (and we do) scoop Malone out of Tampa Bay.

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On Tampa Bay

Speaking of Tampa Bay. Sending Vinny to LA for Johnson, the #5 and a guy like Handzus just makes too much sense. Anything more is bonus.

Stamkos (whom I was wrong about), Hedman and Schenn make for a pretty sweet rebuild starter-kit.

Of course, at one point in time, Johnson and the #5 were headed to Anaheim for Pronger (not a horrible trade actually).

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Have a great evening everyone.

Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Sticktuitiveness


Sticking with Detroit in the final

and

Very impressed with the judge, guy worked the angles and found an intelligent way to split the difference; sorry Phoenix

and

I do not like the packages that are being pitched if the Oilers are to get Heatley. His Cap hit is too big to ignore and, more importantly, the only guy you are really bidding against is yourself and, possibly, LA. Also, Heatley has some ability to dictate so don't look for him to okay a trade that cripples the team he is heading to.

Penner is probably too toxic for Ottawa management to sell and Cogliano doesn't cover the salary spread. I have to admit - this is a hard trade to match because Edmonton doesn't have spare quality that Ottawa would want (i.e. no d-man past Gilbert and Grebs that could play a role in Ottawa).

hrmmm....

The more I look at it the problem is Ottawa's dire need for a puck-moving/power-play d-man and Edmonton's inability to freely give one up. Even a mediocre one.

Visnovsky, Nilsson & a 2nd rounder works but now Edmonton needs a (GOOD) d-man. Gilbert, Cogliano and ? (Nilsson is my pick here as well) also works but now Edmonton has given too much up.

Look. Mr. Tambellini; go get yourself another d-man in trade and THEN look at getting Heatley. Otherwise, just say no.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL CBA - Revenue Sharing and Salary Cap


Some items in this post are cribbed from this post at Hockeys Future; which cribs from an August 2005 article in the Sports Business Journal. I'm just filling in holes, organizing a bit, supplying extra context/info and then whacking in some thoughts/observations. Irish Blues at NHLSCAP is much closer to pro when it comes to the cba so please feel free to go to his site for more/differently said information.

This post deals with the Cap calculations and revenue sharing. I am writing so as to archive and provide myself reference material for future posts.

Basic Cap Calculation

Hockey Related Revenues = HRR
Negotiated Player % of HRR = A
Maximum Player Share of Revenues = HRR*A = MPS

Club Average Revenue = HRR/30 = CAR
Team Salary Cap = CAR*A or MPS/30 = Cap

Salary Budget Target = CAP - $ 8 million = SBT

So if HRR = $ 2.586 billion then:

A = 56.5% and MPS = $ 1.461 billion

CAR = $ 86.2 million
Cap = $ 56.7 million
SBT = $ 48.7 million

There is a lot of play in the calculations (inflation escalator, a player benefits number, etc) but, for the most part, that is how it works.

Basic Escrow Math

As many clubs will spend beyond SBT the odds are good the players will get paid more than their overall share, hence there is an escrow holdback system in place.

Actual Salary Expenditures = ASE
Escrow Holding Account = ASE - MPS = EHA

So if every team spent full Cap then:

ASE = $ 1.701 billion and
EHA = $ 240.0 million

Interestingly enough, the EHA will never total more than $ 240 million. Escrow funds are first paid out per the two revenue sharing plans and then split evenly among the clubs.

As there are two identified revenue sharing plans this creates a situation where there are actually three possible revenue sharing payouts that any one team can receive.

i.e. remaining escrow dollars are "split evenly among the clubs".

Basic Revenue Sharing Rules

1. Clubs start with 54% of their own revenues (presumably HRR) for payroll calculation and revenue sharing purposes.

2. Clubs in markets with more than 2.5 million TV households are ineligible for revenue sharing.

3. By the third year of the deal, clubs have to grow revenues faster than the league average and have attendance of 75% of capacity to be eligible for their full revenue-sharing allotment.

4. By the fourth year, the required attendance capacity increases to 80%. That number then holds at 80%.

Revenue Sharing Pool 'A' (RSPA)

Comprised of league media revenue, play-off gate receipts, escrow funds and funds from top-grossing teams this pool of funds totals ~ 4.5% of HRR. The purpose of the RSPA distribution is to bring clubs to within $ 4 million of SBT.

Any club in the bottom half of league revenues, regardless of payroll, is eligible to receive funds from RSPA.

To continue the example, Team TRY:

RSPA = 4.5% * HRR = $ 116.4 million

TRY HRR = $ 70.0 million
TRY MPS = $ 39.5 million

$ 48.7 million - $ 39.5 million = $ 9.2 million

$ 9.2 million - $ 4.0 million = $ 5.2 million

Team TRY would, presumably, be able to draw as much as $ 5.2 million from RSPA.

One interesting thing to note here - if escrow is high enough then, presumably, the entire RSPA pot could be funded from escrow dollars. Which would mean that this revenue sharing pot would then be entirely player funded.

Which isn't exactly what one might call 'in the spirit' of revenue sharing. Dollar sharing: 'yes'; revenue sharing: 'no'.

The critical factor here would be: how much of RSPA is comprised of escrow dollars? To be honest, I haven't dug deep enough into the CBA to get that info.

Revenue Sharing Pool 'B' (RSPB)

Comprised entirely of escrow funds, if available, not used up by RSPA. The purpose of the RSPB distribution is to bring clubs to, but not over, the SBT. Any club spending over the midpoint on player salaries is not eligible for the second batch (obviously).

Team TRY would, presumably, be able to draw as much as $ 4.0 million from RSPB.

Again, it is interesting to note that, if escrow is high enough, player salary holdbacks have paid for all of the revenue sharing efforts of the NHL teams.

Using 2008-09

Cap = $ 56.7 million
SBT = $ 48.7 million

Teams spending over SBT = 24 (25*)
(* Toronto was under SBT but, probably, doesn't qualify for Revenue Sharing)

Total Salaries (including LTIR) = $ 1.613 billion
Average = $ 53.77 million
Teams above average = 19
Teams below average = 11
EHA (estimated) = $ 152.23 million

Total Salaries (without LTIR) = $ 1.580 billion
Average = $ 52.67 million
Teams above average = 20
Teams below average = 10
EHA (estimated) = $ 119.05 million

RSPA = $ 116.4 million

RSPB (inc LTIR) = $ 2.65 million
RSPB (w/o LTIR) = $ 35.83 million

Depending on how much of the escrow is used up in RSPA (as mentioned) it looks like the revenue sharing could have been entirely escrow funded in 2008-09; regardless of scenario.

A Chart

According to the CBA the players are guaranteed a % of leaguewide Hockey Related Revenues (HRR). That % changes as HRR shrinks or grows but can never fall below 54% (at $ 2.2 billion in HRR) and never go above 57% (at $ 2.7 billion in HRR).

Salary Cap # per team based on the estimated leaguewide HRR.

$b ........ Player%

2.200 ....... 54.0
2.300 ....... 55.5
2.400 ....... 56.0
2.500 ....... 56.3
2.550 ....... 56.5
2.600 ....... 56.7
2.700 ....... 57.0
2.800 ....... 57.0
2.900 ....... 57.0
3.000 ....... 57.0

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Have a great evening everyone.

Thursday, 28 May 2009

Rematch


(Found a better photo)
Finale

If Lidstrom is healthy (and I mean HEALTHY - not hanging on by a thread) then Detroit takes this in 6.

If not, and Gonchar is HEALTHY (same criteria), then Pittsburgh in 7.

If both Lidstrom and Gonchar are just 'healthy' then Detroit in 7.

I take Detroit in 7.

Sitting at 7 for 14 now... unless you figure I was wrong on the game counts in which case I am waaayyyy out of it.

Quinn & Renney

I'll go with cautiously optimistic. I do like that every player should get a new 'look-see' but if Quinn is even more vet-happy than MacT then it will all come down to Renney's work on the special teams.

Which could be the bet all along.

One sour note: dropping Huddy was just plain stupid imo.

Balls

Balsillie will win the team. The right to move it... slim. The odds of the NHL pulling the team within a few days of such a ruling... 50/50.

Balsillie lost $600 million once fighting a fight he shouldn't have.

When I look at this I see a guy who could have bought the team for much less than the $212 (say $176?), rejigged the lease, lost $12 or so for three more seasons (just to bring it back to $212 - I'm like that you know) and THEN declared bankruptcy and moved the team.

Because after three years he would have won over enough BoG guys, in a big enough way, to get it done.

I'm sure they have round-ups in the Phoenix area. Balls get cut off at round-ups.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Saturday, 16 May 2009

Just In Case You Missed It


Thirds

DET over CHI (in 7)

PIT over CAR (in 6)

hrmmm... now 5 for 12... owwwwww

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Question

Your team is in a bit of a rebuild situation. You have gobs of cash but the cost of what you are considering isn't all 'money-I-am-giving-up-putting-in-my-pocket', some of it will be 'money-I-will-be-taking-out-of-my-pocket'.

Also, what you are considering WILL be scrutinized by the league.

That said, would you, say, trade:

O'Marra, Hrabal, Pitton, 2009 7th rounder and 2010 7th rounder
FOR
Pothier, Theodore, 2009 1st rounder and 2010 or 2011 1st rounder*

* (WASH choice at draft time)

That puts a $3 million value on a late-1st round pick IF you never planned to use the players.

I am waiting for these kinds of deals to start to happen. Burke did a mini-version of this at the deadline but what I am talking about is one-step away from the whole enchilada.

Remember - the Zetterberg deals finally started to happen and all it took were a few warm-ups first.

[Edit to add: btw, there is a deliberate flaw in the math so if you find it GOLD STAR FOR YOU!]

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Have a great evening everyone.

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

Expansion Teams Incoming

Take Your Pick

Fearless Prediction #1

BoG of the NHL finds a way to dodge the Balsillie bullet altogether. Mostly because the rest of the league doesn't want to miss out on the expansion fees a Toronto team would offer (not to mention the Sabres and Leafs getting their 'our-turf' fee).

Fearless Prediction #2

Balsillie gets the Coyotes but has to keep them there for the next 2-3 years or until another buyer is found. He then gets awarded the expansion team for Toronto... and still has to pay through the nose for the privilege.

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While a second expansion team for Kansas City may or may not be approved in either scenario the real key for Bettman is pointing out to the BoG just what they are missing out on ($) without going the expansion route.

No matter how this shakes out - even if Balsillie wins it all outright - there will finally be a 2nd team in Toronto.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Friday, 1 May 2009

Well That Kinda Sucked


Second Round

Can also mean: chance to try again. Seems I will trend towards the favorites this time:

DET over ANA (in 6)
VAN over CHI (in 6)

BOS over CAR (in 5)
PIT over WAS (in 7)

First round was not kind to me. 3 for 8. Not good.

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Have a great evening everyone.