NHL Entry Draft (2009) - Review

Very deep draft. Could be 2003 all over again. One big trade came early (affecting draft order):

TRADE: Philadelphia trades Lupul, Sbisa, the #21 pick, their 1st round pick from 2010 and a conditional 3rd round pick from 2010 (or 2011) to Anaheim for Pronger and Dingle. Anaheim now has the #15 and the #21 while Philadelphia is out of the 1st round.

01 ... NYI ... Tavares
02 ... TAM ... Hedman
03 ... COL ... Duchene
04 ... ATL ... Kane

The first 4 picks are all as advertised. As much as I can appreciate the talent this draft has all the drama of a day-old Timbit. If it wasn't for the trade of Pronger... nuthin'.

As with every year there is one team, picking early, that I think should trade down and this year, for the 2nd time in the last 3 years, that team is the LA Kings. Not because their pick was a reach (like Hickey was) but because this team HAS to be competitive and getting a play-now asset for the 5th was a better way to go (imo).

Schenn was next on the board and that is where the LA Kings go. [Editor's note: Burke... not happy. YKOil... happy. I'm cheap that way.]

05 ... LAK ... Schenn
06 ... PHO ... Ekman-Larsson

A quick look at the aggregate scoring list shows that Phoenix is the first team to take a guy out of order - leapfrogging Paajarvi-Svensson and Cowen to take Ekman-Larsson. Great pick imo, just outside the 10 point jump rule but really, how could they go wrong at this spot in this draft?

TRADE: Howson continues to show us what he can do as a GM: Columbus trades the #16 and #77 to the NY Islanders for the #26, 37, 62 and 92. For a drop of 10 spots the Jackets get 2 extra picks; of which one is really high quality. That said, if the Isalnders get what they want they do well here as well.

This is what I said in my aggregated ranking post: If anyone ranked below Schroeder is chosen in the top-8 it SHOULD be a major surprise and if anyone ranked below Kadri is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

Well. Okay then.

07 ... TOR ... Kadri
08 ... DAL ... Glennie

Kadri was ranked 11th (23 pts), Glennie was ranked 15th (10 pts) and they both jumped Paarjarvi-Svensson (6th w/ 48 pts), Cowen (7th w/ 40 pts), Kulikov (9th w/ 27 pts) and Schroeder (10th w/ 26 pts). If the Kadri pick is a surprise, the Glennie pick is BIG surprise. I like Glennie but... wow.

Maybe the Oilers get Kulikov? Will they risk the Russian steppes?

09 ... OTT ... Cowen
10 ... EDM ... Paarjarvi-Svensson
11 ... NAS ... Ellis

Ottawa gets back on script so Edmonton had an interesting choice to make. Kulikov is still my choice but Paarjarvi-Svensson is tempting in a Jani Rita sort of way; they take the Swede (who is half-Finn apparently; its a twofer!). Too bad in a way, Cowen would have been a no brainer.

I like the pick. Kulikov is the better player but Paajarvi isn't chopped liver either. Speculation is that Kulikov will drop because of the 'Russian' factor - be interesting to see how far. Nashville takes Ellis and it's a little funny isn't it? No one is mentioning how far Schroeder is dropping.

TRADE: Minnesota trades the #12 to the New York Islanders for the #16, 77 and 182. Nice trade by both teams as Minnesota gets a bounty of picks and the Islanders get aggressive.

12 ... NYI ... DeHaan
13 ... BUF ... Kassian
14 ... FLO ... Kulikov
15 ... ANA ... Holland
16 ... MIN ... Leddy

Well. Okay. A good trade for Minnesota. Islanders take DeHaan too early but I suspect they were spooked by the Ellis pick (and Kulikov drop) and figured they would get their d-man while they could. Big stretch by the Islanders.

Buffalo stretches a bit in taking Kassian (let's face it - they needed the size and grit) and then Florida, soon to be down a J-Bo, takes Kulikov. Great pick by Florida. Great pick.

Anaheim takes Holland and Minnesota takes Leddy (teams are all over the map now)... who the H%LL is Leddy? They couldn't trade down any further? Leddy might turn out but this is a horrible use of the pick by Minnesota. Schroeder continues to drop.

17 ... STL ... Rundblad
18 ... MON ... LeBlanc
19 ... NYR ... Kreider

St. Louis and Montreal help get the top-15 lists back on track but then the NY Rangers take Kreider. Fastest skater in the draft apparently... Barry... is that you?

TRADE: Calgary trades the #20 to New Jersey for the #23 and 84. Calgary pulls one out of the Kevin Lowe hat. Good trade for New Jersey.

20 ... NJD ... Josefson

TRADE: Anaheim trades the #21 to Columbus for the #26 and 37. Howson stays frisky. Should have been talking to Calgary apparently. It's a room full of gnats and Lou has a newspaper.

21 ... CLB ... Moore
22 ... VAN ... Schroeder
23 ... CAL ... Erixon

Moore is a solid pick even if the price is high and Vancouver gets Christmas a little early as Schroeder falls all the way to the 22nd. Luck is blind. Calgary picks up decent talent in Erixon.

24 ... CLB ... Johansson
25 ... VAN ... Caron
26 ... ANA ... Palmieri
27 ... CAR ... Paradis
28 ... CHI ... Olsen

A whole whack of picks that jump ahead of three guys who actually made a top-15 list: Despres, Roussel and Morin. Despres is the surprise here.

TRADE: Detroit trades the #29 to Tampa Bay for the #32 and 75. For a team on the verge of falling apart it is nice to see Tampa make a move.

29 ... TAM ... Ashton
30 ... PIT ... Despres

I like Tampa's draft day but I can't help but wonder how Pittsburgh got Despres this late in the draft. Great value for Pittsburgh at the #30.

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The winners are (in order):

-- Philadelphia (CFP),
-- Anaheim (How to Get Value for an Asset 101),
-- Tampa Bay (a franchise d-man and a decent wing),
-- Columbus (built depth and got a highly rated player),
-- Florida, Vancouver and Pittsburgh (great value picks),
-- Despres
-- New York Islanders (great maneuvers but De Haan?),
-- Minnesota (great maneuvers but Leddy?),

The losers are (in order):

-- Anaheim (Lupul?),
-- Toronto (all that air wasted),
-- Los Angeles (team needs real players)

Philadelphia, in getting Pronger, does really well here. Good thing for the rest of the East that Philly can't secure solid goaltending to save their life.

As for the Oilers:

I like Paarjarvi-Svensson. Nothing wrong with that pick at all. I do get tired of the tire-kicking though. If you are going to move up then do so; quit dicking around.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Tampa Bay - Too Fast For Me

Honest. I had hoped to do a full write up on a Tampa Bay rebuild in conjunction with a post on "Rebuilds - On Steroids" (finally) and "Edmonton Oilers - After the Prong".

Given that things are moving so fast there right now I have believe that anything I write wouldn't be anywhere near prescient, or even intelligent (don't wait for it), if I waited any longer so consider this the (very) short-form.

Keepers

Otherwise known as players I like for the long haul.

G - Smith
D - Ranger, Meszaros, Smaby
W - nada, zippo and out of here
C - Stamkos

From the 2009 Draft, picks of note include: #2, #32 and #52.

Prospects of interest include (in order): Szczechura, Wishart, Lashoff and (maybe) Tyrell.

Trade Assets

(in order of value)

LeCavalier
St. Louis
Malone
Halpern
Prospal (too many years left)

Short-Forming

Try to send Lecavalier to the Kings for their 1st overall (the #5), one of Teubert/Hickey (probably not Hickey), one of Purcell/Moller (you want Moller) and some lesser draft pick(s) and prospect(s). In an amazing world maybe the 1st, Frolov (on a salary equalization basis) and one of Teubert/Purcell/1st rounder 2010 is obtained.

Frolov would, of course, have to be extended. Pay the man.

If Montreal is willing to play then some combination of: 18th pick overall (2009 draft), 1st round pick in 2010, Gorges, Higgins, Plekanec, Pacioretty and McDonagh. Maxwell, Subban and Fischer are also options. Gorges, Higgins and one of Pacioretty/McDonagh form the minimum requirements. Of course, as we know, any 5 assets will do.

Try to send St. Louis to Colorado.

Colorado may be willing to forego a rebuild if St. Louis comes their way. If so, don't be afraid to entice them by taking Tucker and one other short-term salary dump off their hands. The main target(s) is the #3 overall pick in this years draft and Shattenkirk. St. Louis and the #32 for Tucker, the #3 and Shattenkirk may be doable. If not Shattenkirk then Nigel Williams. Pay the price.

Prospal and Malone have a lot of years left on their deals but, at least in the case of Malone, there may be a fanboi GM out there so check it out.

Halpern should be an easy trade - someone will give up a 2nd (trade deadline) or 3rd (draft) for him.

Pay The Price

As mentioned - pay the price. The goal is to get at least one, and if aggressive, both of those high quality draft picks. Final price to pay - find out what Snow would want to NOT pick Hedman and bail if it gets ridiculous..

Do all that and the 'Keepers' roster looks like so (assuming decent but not amazing trades in those two scenarios):

G - Smith
D - Ranger, Meszaros, Gorges, Smaby, Hedman, Williams
W - Plekanec, Ashton**
C - Stamkos, Higgins, Duchene, Schenn/Kane

** If going by Mackenzie's listing and drafting for need

THAT is a sweet up-n-coming roster. Tonnes of upside and it still sucks for next year when more draft assets can be added and maybe Malone and Prospal can be traded. And all of that would come before other asset building strategies are employed.

This is the kind of year when a struggling team can remake their future by being sure and aggressive. Be interesting to see who wins that power struggle (though, to be honest, I don't credit Koules or Lawton with the skills to get it done right).

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft (2009)

For archive purposes I am compiling my NHL Entry Draft (2009) stuff here. As with last year's NHL Entry Draft (2008) archive, this first post acts as a primer that contains the set-up info of interest going into the draft.

Links to the other two articles in this series:

NHL Entry Draft 2009 - First Round Review

NHL Entry Draft 2009 - Oiler Picks (to come)

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Personal Thoughts

What an incredible draft group. There are, from what I can discern, 8 picks that 'should' turn into all-stars and of those there are a few who could be Hall of Fame candidates.

Crazy year. Pass the kool-aid.

-- Tavares - given the hype this is a risky pick; to take or to pass, that is the question
-- Hedman - stud pick with no question marks
-- Duchene - see Hedman
-- Cowen - despite injury concerns he still makes the top-7; wow
-- Schenn - best 'safe' bet after the top-3; will he justify the pick?
-- Kadri, Josefson, Leblanc, Ellis, Glennie - all notable for only making 3 of 5 lists (top-15)
-- Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov - one of two I would hope for at #10

As opposed to last year this is NOT the kind of draft where trading into the top-14 will net best value on the dollar. The depth of the draft justifies the hype but that means the prices will be high, really high. Think about it - who will want to be the guy who trades the next Jordan Stall (Schenn in this draft)?

Where there will be action is in the top-5. As I have noted elsewhere, Colorado and Los Angeles are two teams that are in a position to trade their picks in exchange for a better play-off push next year - that means their picks may be in play; either by themself or as part of a push by another team (say Toronto) to secure a top-2 pick.

The Islanders and the Lighting may just swap picks but, from where I sit, both teams have the assets to make major plays this year. I expect, however, whimpers from both teams.

Tambellini does have the assets to snag a second 1st rounder this draft but that pick won't be until late in the round and at that point, well, whoopee-de-do-da.

i.e. the price point would be high and the 40th + Nilsson won't net you much

What do I expect? I expect we shall see Tambellini stand pat or trade spare parts for extra picks in later rounds. I half-expect to see a lot of Cap-unloading action, by all teams, taking place.

Miracles would include coming out of this draft with two of Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov and Glennie. Happiness means getting one of Ekman-Larsson or Kulikov at 10 or trading down to get one of Ellis or Glennie in the 12 to 15 range.

Without further ado...

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Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)

01 -- _10
02 -- _40
03 -- _71
03 -- _82 ... Trade with Philadelphia
04 -- 101
05 -- 130
06 -- 160
07 -- 190

Remember to adjust for compensation picks.


Team Order - 1st Round

01.. NY Islanders
02.. Tampa Bay
03.. Colorado
04.. Atlanta
05.. Los Angeles
06.. Phoenix
07.. Toronto
08.. Dallas
09.. Ottawa
10.. Edmonton
11.. Nashville
12.. Minnesota
13.. Buffalo
14.. Florida
15.. Anaheim
16.. Columbus
17.. St. Louis
18.. Montreal
19.. NY Rangers
20.. Calgary
21.. Philadelphia
22.. Vancouver
23.. New Jersey
24.. Washington
25.. Boston
26.. NY Islanders ... via ... San Jose
27.. Carolina
28.. Chicago
29.. Detroit
30.. Pittsburgh


Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).

Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.

Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.


The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)

... McKeens* .... ISS ......... Redline* .... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Tavares
2.. Tavares ..... Duchene ..... Duchene ..... Hedman ...... Hedman
3.. Duchene ..... Hedman ...... Tavares ..... Duchene ..... Duchene
4.. Ek-Larsson .. Pa-Svensson . Schenn ...... Cowen ....... Kane
5.. Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Pa-Svensson
6.. Schenn ...... Schenn ...... Pa-Svensson . Schenn ...... Schenn
7.. Kulikov ..... Cowen ....... Ek-Larsson .. Pa-Svensson . Schroeder
8.. Cowen ....... Kadri ....... Cowen ....... Kadri ....... Josefson
9.. Kadri ....... Ek-Larsson .. Kulikov ..... Schroeder ... Moore
10. Pa-Svensson . Kulikov ..... Leblanc ..... Rundblad .... Glennie
11. Ellis ....... Josefson .... Schroeder ... Kulikov ..... Ek-Larsson
12. Moore ....... Leblanc ..... Rundblad .... Depres ...... Depres
13. Schroeder ... Ellis ....... Ellis ....... Ek-Larsson .. Cowen
14. Glennie ..... Schroeder ... Roussel ..... Glennie ..... Erixon
15. Leblanc ..... Holland ..... Morin ....... Josefson .... Kassian


Graded Rankings

.................... Top-10 . Scoring

Tavares ............... 5 ___ 14 + 15 + 13 + 15 + 15 = 72
Hedman ................ 5 ___ 15 + 13 + 15 + 14 + 14 = 71
Duchene ............... 5 ___ 13 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 13 = 67
Kane .................. 5 ___ 11 + 11 + 11 + 11 + 12 = 56
Schenn ................ 5 ___ 10 + 10 + 12 + 10 + 10 = 52
Paajarvi-Svensson ..... 5 ___ 06 + 12 + 10 + 09 + 11 = 48
Cowen ................. 4 ___ 08 + 09 + 08 + 12 + 03 = 40
Ekman-Larsson ......... 3 ___ 12 + 07 + 09 + 03 + 05 = 36
Kulikov ............... 3 ___ 09 + 06 + 07 + 05 + 00 = 27
Schroeder ............. 2 ___ 03 + 02 + 05 + 07 + 09 = 26
Kadri ................. 3 ___ 07 + 08 + 00 + 08 + 00 = 23
Josefson .............. 1 ___ 00 + 05 + 00 + 01 + 08 = 14
Leblanc ............... 1 ___ 01 + 04 + 06 + 00 + 00 = 11
Ellis ................. 0 ___ 05 + 03 + 03 + 00 + 00 = 11
Glennie ............... 1 ___ 02 + 00 + 00 + 02 + 06 = 10
Rundblad .............. 1 ___ 00 + 00 + 04 + 00 + 06 = 10
Moore ................. 1 ___ 04 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 06 = 10
Despres ......... ..... 0 ___ 00 + 00 + 00 + 04 + 04 = 08
Roussel, Erixon, Holland, Morin, Kassian (all 2 pts or less).


The big 3: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne
Next best thing: Kane, Schenn
Should be Good: Paajarvi-Svensson, Cowen, Ekman-Larsson
Consolation Prizes: Kulikov, Schroeder, Kadri
Afterthoughts: Josefson, Leblanc, Ellis, Glennie and everyone else


A Rule Of Thumb

When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.

Kulikov has 27 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Ekman-Larsson by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Cowen or Paajarvi-Svensson.

Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:

-- Excepting that the Islanders have signalled Tavares, Hedman or Duchene could go #1
-- Cowen could overtake Paajarvi-Svensson and, maybe, even Schenn but not Kane
-- If anyone ranked below Schroeder is chosen in the top-8 it SHOULD be a major surprise
-- If anyone ranked below Kadri is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

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* McKeen's and Redline only release, for free, their top-10. I found the other 5 names using various, legal, websites but cannot completely verify for accuracy. If you have the goods please feel free to self-correct while you read.

I will update as the information becomes public.

** CSB does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.

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Have a great evening everyone, and enjoy the draft.

Timing. And Luck.

(please, dear Lord, let them be wearing skates)

Luck O'the Irish

Brian Burke is about to have a wonderful off-season. Rarely have I seen circumstance so benefit a NHL General Manager.

Everything should be working to his advantage. EVERYTHING.

A. The team operates in a large market with a rabid fan base and can spend full Cap without blinking an eye.

B. The dollar resources of the team, and the force of Burke's personality/control of the team, are such that the budget should be able to exceed Cap.

C. His is one of (very) few teams entering this contract season with lots of Cap space, lots of budget space and few RFA committments to consider.

D. Individual NHL teams will be facing serious fiscal obstacles and will be eager to deal with someone who has cash and knows how to use it.

E. The NHL, as a whole, has entered a period of time where salary inflation should be almost non-existent due to the economy.

F. The NHL, as an operating league, has already approved deals which work to the dollar strengths of the team (see: Detroit).

i.e. the heavy lifting has been done.

G. The upcoming UFA and Entry Draft classes are stocked with talent (as opposed to the 2008 UFA list or the 1999 Entry Draft lets say).

H. The upcoming Entry Draft has two distinct classes of teams in the top-7 picks and this will provide opportunity. **

I. He will have carte-blanche in all his dealings and can remake the team as he sees fit.

THAT is some pretty sweet timing. Los Angeles should be in this position as well but I don't see those owners as being as willing to spend the dough.

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About That #1 Pick

Being contrarian I do not see a deal for Tavares as being impossible, or even 'really' hard for Burke to achieve. In fact I also see Los Angeles as being a contender for that (the #1) pick.

** That is because of the two classes of teams that I mentioned above.

1 ... New York Islanders
2 ... Tampa Bay Lightning
3 ... Colorado Avalanche
4 ... Atlanta Thrashers
5 ... Los Angeles Kings
6 ... Phoenix Coyotes
7 ... Toronto Maple Leafs

On that list Toronto, Colorado and LA stick out like sore thumbs. The financial capabilities of those three teams, compared to their brethren, is staggering - and of the three, financially, Toronto is way, way ahead.

Two things further differentiate Toronto from Colorado and LA:

a. roster and payroll flexibility (Toronto only really cares about Schenn) and
b. compete level

Because of where their rosters are (in terms of build and compete) both Colorado and LA are teams that should be/want to be serious play-off spot contenders next year. Colorado's picture is litle muddied in that the team will be subject to two, mutually exclusive but same sourced, motivations:

a. possibly dumping some salary if Sakic re-signs or
b. probably adding a replacement player if Sakic retires

Regardless of the Sakic decision fall-out however, the point to be made is that neither Colorado nor LA is in the same strategic space as the Leafs - namely, being quite willing, able and happy to trade picks, players and money for a big move in the draft.

In fact, because of their compete factor it is quite plausible that either one of LA or Colorado would be willing to trade their pick for quality players coming back the other way.

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Enter Brian Burke

The trick here is for Burke to trade for one of the 3rd or 5th picks and package THAT with the 7th.

I think people underestimate how many quality trade chips Burke actually has. Kaberle, alone, represents a serious upgrade to either Colorado's or LA's defense corps (Kaberle, Doughty, Johnson and Hickey make for a quality defense corps).

Think about it: Stajan, Ponikarovsky, a bevy of 2nd round picks, Kubina, Hagman, White, a (albeit) small pool of prospects and even Stempniak or Finger... yeah, Toronto has tradeable assets.

My Take? A package in the form of Kaberle, Stajan and a pick gets LA's 3rd or Colorado's 5th.

And don't forget - Toronto can afford any bad contract any team wants to dump.

Snow is a fairly smart GM. He knows that, as valuable as Tavares or Hedman is, a package of high quality assets can make all the difference in the world (see also: Quebec/Lindros).

My belief is that Burke gets the 1st if he gets Snow any two of Duchene, Cowen, Kane and Schenn in a package. I suspect the package would look a lot like this:

Tavares

for

x2 1st rounders (as mentioned);
x2 2nd rounders (only one needs be current year);
a prospect (or still a 1st year player);
one of Ponikarovsky/White (probably White).

The only question for me is this: if Burke gets the #3 and has a legit shot at two of Duchene, Cowan, Kane and Schenn, why would he trade that away?

I gotta give this to Burke: his timing is impeccable. Or maybe he should just pull that leprechaun out o'his ass... though it does explain the temperament.

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Have a great evening everyone.