Monday, 30 June 2008

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - The Cull

For archive purposes the other posts in this series are here:

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - The List

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - First Look


Okay. So:

1. you know that out of the superstar group I like Sundin. THE signing of this off-season imo;

2. You also know that I like the greybeards (Gelinas, Holik, Conroy, et al). All of them should represent good value for the money this year. Feel free to get yourself more than one;

3. finally, you know that I partial culled the list already:

-- Campbell, Hossa et al aren't on the list because only a Stanley Cup will justify the contracts they will get while
-- a lot of lesser lights didn't make my list because they didn't bring much to the table or didn't stand out in any way

That leaves us with one bit of information left unsaid - who would I actually consider signing off of this list? Which players make the final cut?


If a scoring forward is what you are looking for look no further than:

Stillman ... 79gm .. 24g.41a (65) -15

.... 18.58 toi .. 4.07 pp .. 1.05 sh ... Desjardins: -0.08 / +0.05 / -0.03

His age is actually a plus in this case as you won't be locked in for too long. His games played is good (i.e. NOT Souray) and with a prior year salary of only $ 1.75 mill he will probably remain quite a bit cheaper, even with those nice counting numbers, than a guy like Demitra.

What I really like however are his TOI and Desjardins numbers.

18+ mins is good time and the shorthanded number shows he may have developed some defensive acumen along the way. Proof of that is borne out by a decent EV number even as he was playing (relatively) high quality opposition while saddled with (relatively) low quality linemates.

In other words, his +/- rating of -15 hides a LOT of good stuff and if a team can get him signed to deal in the 2.00 to 3.00 range (years vary with price) they will be very happy with their investment.

Ryder ... 70gm .. 14g.17a (31) -4

.... 13.14 toi .. 2.07 pp .. 0.05 sh ... Desjardins: -0.36 / +0.06 / -0.16

Some smart team will take advantage of a very poor season by Ryder. Want to know why his scoring was down? Start with the reduced TOI and powerplay time - amazing what a demotion from the 1st unit on the powerplay will do to a guys numbers.

Much like Stillman, Ryder played with sub-par linemates against some really tough opposition and didn't do too poorly. Given his reputation for being semi-soft defensively and more of a 'me-first' type it is amazing he wasn't buried at evens.

Where Stillman will be submarined by the low +/-, Ryder will be done in by the low scoring numbers.

A smart team will see through the smokescreen, sign Ryder for something in the 2.25 to 2.75 range (I expect 2 to 3 years) and find that, with more powerplay time, they made a good move.


Dupuis ... 78gm .. 12g.15a (27) +0

.... 15.11 toi .. 0.18 pp .. 2.36 sh ... Desjardins: +0.16 / +0.02 / -0.00

Everyone is the "Man That Man Forgot!" when they play with "The Mighty Crosbalkin!" That is just the way it will always be. Some lucky team however will notice the guy who DID NOT get nothing but prime minutes and yet still produced good numbers.

His TOI, Desjardins and even his counting numbers are all pretty good for being the "Man That Man Forgot". By pretty good I also mean 'really good'. This guy didn't get Crosbalkin time and didn't get Glencross (read: butter) time yet still managed to get 12 goals.

That's, actually, really good.

Some smart team will pick him up on a 3 year deal in the 1.25 to 1.50 range. A really smart team will pick him up for 4 years in the same price range.

Vasicek ... 81gm .. 16g.19a (35) +1

.... 15.51 toi .. 1.24 pp .. 1.24 sh ... Desjardins: +0.70 / +0.03 / +0.07

Scorned almost everywhere he has been Vasicek plays the part of the gypsy in the game that is the NHL. This is a good thing. A plus player who did a bit of everything for the Islanders Vasicek is primed for a nice deal offered by some enterprising team.

The only real weakness I see in his numbers is that he DID play with some of the better players the Islanders had to offer. Good. It means he won't embarrass himself if he has to pick up a 1st line shift every now and then.

The prior year price point of 750k is music to my ears.

Some team will pick him up on a 2 year deal in the 1.00 to 1.50 price range. A smart team will offer him 6 years at 1.5 and see if he bites. Outperformer special right there imo.


Pandolpho ... 54gm .. 12g.12a (24) +10

.... 17.16 toi .. 0.27 pp .. 2.59 sh ... Desjardins: +0.85 / +0.16 / +0.12

Will this be the year Pandolpho finally gets his due? I hope so. For my sake. I must admit that it has been tough watching him outperform his contract every year and do it for pennies for the Devils. Why can't my Oilers get these kind of deals?

His games played total is a little low. Fine. And he played with some high caliber linemates. Fine. In fact... GOOD. Check that quality of competition number against his evens rating - when he did play with the better players on his team he did GREAT!

This security blanket deserves a better home.

Play him at evens with your top-line guys and it looks to me like you have a winner. A 3 year declining balance deal looks to be a good way to go (say 2.75 / 1.5 / 1.25).

Tjarnqvist ... 78gm ... 4g..7a (11) -1

.... 13.38 toi .. 0.07 pp .. 3.05 sh ... Desjardins: +0.29 / +0.03 / -0.09

Not the d-man. The forward. What a sweet deal this could be. Check out those TOI numbers: of 13+ mins a game he played ~ 25% of those on the penalty kill. I wonder if he thought the game was always played 5 on 4?

Sure he doesn't score points. Who cares. Playing with the lesser lights on his team, against some healthy competition, he managed to hold his own and then some. THIS guy, right here, is my 5 star special of the off-season.

Sign him now.

Any GM can throw money at a guy like Hossa. The smart GM, possibly brilliant, takes a gander at Tjarnqvist and locks up this outperformer for 4 or more years in the 900k range. I like.


No one. Not one name I thought was a smart, smart pick-up to fill this role.

Two honorable mentions however:

Roszival - I have always like this guy and have been picking him as an outperformer before there was Desjardins numbers to reference. Seriously. This year he gets his money. Good for him. Anything under $4.50 mill /yr is a good deal for the team that gets him.

Hainsey - had a good year but he is still too risky for me to say he is a smart signing to make given the dollars he will get. Remember, even playing for Hitchcock he was still only middlin' effective at evens. I expect him to get $4.50 or so a year and I don't know if he is worth it.


Vandermeer ... 75gm ... 3g.14a (17) +6

.... 19.38 toi .. 1.29 pp .. 2.25 sh ... Desjardins: +0.56 / -0.05 / +0.11

I am starting to really like this guy. His TOI numbers are great for a guy who is best played as a number 5 or 6. He is an effective stand-in on the powerplay, he will fight if needed and he tends to outplay his competition.

I am a little wary of projecting his play given the quality of linemates he had last year but if his role is reduced a little I think his effectiveness will go up. The key here will be keeping his price point consistent.

5th man gold who should not be playing 15+ at evens.

A smart team locks a guy like Vandermeer up for 4 or more years in the $1.35 to 1.65 range. At that price point, in the right roster spot, he will be a very effective player.


Malik ... 42gm ... 2g..8a (10) +7

.... 19.14 toi .. 0.14 pp .. 2.39 sh ... Desjardins: +1.07 / +0.06 / -0.02

Like Roszival I have always liked Malik. The guy is really, really good at what he does and doesn't get any credit for it. That is awesome. His Desjardin numbers are awesome and the only real worries I have are age and injury.

I don't care if he's a big guy who doesn't throw forwards around like monkeys toss poo. What I care about is that he is consistently a positive force in the defensive zone and that he doesn't get tossed around back there.

Not tossing, and not getting tossed, is an okay combo.

A retirement contract would probably work well in this case. If New york is going to let him go then scoop him up for $2.75 mill or so for 3 or so years. Still be better than the Souray deal.

Salvador ... 64gm ... 1g.10a (11) +12

.... 19.47 toi .. 0.08 pp .. 3.23 sh ... Desjardins: +0.48 / +0.09 / -0.17

Steady eddie wins the race. That is Salvador. Too often people think smallish defensemen should be offensive defensemen. I simply prefer my defensemen to be effective. Salvador is effective and he actually had a better year than Malik.

His numbers are great and I think I have officially run out of words with which to describe players.

He is a perfect #4 defenseman.

I expect to see him get a 4 year deal in the $3.00 to 4.00 mill /yr range and I expect that he will earn it. At any price point lower than $3.00 he is a steal.

Sauer ... 54gm ... 1g..5a (7) +17

.... 18.41 toi .. 0.05 pp .. 3.10 sh ... Desjardins: +1.29 .. +0.12 .. -0.02

Some GM out there is hoping that the much flashier Finger gets all the attention. To me Sauer is the key guy. Slot him in as a #4 defensemen playing babysitter for some powerplay wizard (like... say... Visnovsky maybe?) and you have a winner.

Why GM's spend big dollars on guys like Berard, Bergeron et al and then refuse to play them with evens babysitters like Sauer, Smith, etc is beyond me. Even when CFP played with the Oilers he argueably played his best when paired with Smith.


Take a guy like Sauer, pay him $2 mill /yr or so (I expect he gets a touch more), and then play him with your offensive zone wanderers. You will look like a genious.


So there you go. Sold as is and where is. No warranty supplied with product. All sales final. No refunds.

I may have guessed low on many of these players but that isn't why I write posts like this. I write posts like this so that maybe, just maybe, I get someone to actually THINK beyond the shiney baubles like Hossa, Campbell, et al.

Think about it for a second. With any luck, for the $8 million a year or so Hossa may cost some GM could sign an entire 5 man unit of out-performers for their 3rd line/pairings. For teams like Tampa Bay, Calgary et al, where depth was a huge issue, this could be better spent dollars.

Last Honorable Mention: Williams. He almost made the final cut. I just couldn't get past the injury issues, the cost of those truncated counting numbers and the quality of linemates he had. Sorry.


Have a great UFA day everyone.

Sunday, 29 June 2008

Oilers Offseason - 2008 - Visnovsky

I do have a post, upcoming, where I talk about where I see the Oilers going this off-season. Lowe, of course, goes somewhere else.

Over time, I have gotten better at handling the pain.

Big trade today:

Matt Greene (25) ... 1.15 mill/yr for 1 yr

07-08 ... 46gp .... 0g 1a (1) -3 ...... 16.41 toi . 0.05 pp . 2.46 sh
......... Desjardins: -0.32 / -0.08 / +0.01

06-07 ... 78gp .... 1g 9a (10) -22 .... 17.36 toi . 0.08 pp . 2.25 sh
......... Desjardins: -0.66 / -0.02 / -0.01


Jarret Stoll (26) ........ RFA (last was 2.20 mill/yr)

07-08 ... 81gp ... 14g 22a (36) -23 ... 17.56 toi . 3.53 pp . 2.53 sh
......... Desjardins: -1.54 / +0.09 / -0.08

06-07 ... 51gp ... 13g 26a (39) +2 .... 18.11 toi . 4.45 pp . 2.44 sh
......... Desjardins: +0.94 / +0.07 / +0.23


Lubomir Visnovsky (32) ... 5.60 mill/yr for 5 yrs

07-08 ... 82gp .... 8g 33a (41) -18 ... 22.59 toi . 4.35 pp . 1.24 sh
......... Desjardins: -0.19 / -0.03 / -0.00

06-07 ... 69gp ... 18g 40a (58) +1 .... 24.27 toi . 5.57 pp . 0.58 sh
......... Desjardins: +1.41 / +0.04 / -0.01


STOLL - this an odd duck of a player.

In one sense he is hugely under-rated when one considers the strength of opposition he played last year (of course he had bad numbers - he was in over his head all year!). Throw in continued improvement, per injury recovery, and next year should be an okay year for Stoll.

In another sense he is a limited player who needs huge powerplay time (and those are HUGE pp toi numbers folks) to produce. How many 3rd line defensive forwards who happen to be face-off and powerplay specialists do you know? Yanic Perreault maybe (though he was softer than Stoll)?

With the rise of the young-uns on the Oilers depth chart Stoll was just a slow skater racing a fast clock.

Greene - no school for old school NHL

The poster boy for the difference between the old NHL and the new NHL. If his career had started 8 years ago he would be one of the young studs of the game. As it is we continue to hope he will get better one day. And hope. and hope. and hope.

He is super-protected on this team right now. His minutes are good and his team-mates are good so this issue is simply that he just isn't that good. With the games played he has (151 NHL games) we are fast getting past the 'lightbulb-goes-on' stage of his career.

I can't help but think that Smid's combative attitude last year made this an easier trade.

Visnovsky - out of place and out of time

The Kings are a young team. Stoll and Greene are far younger, and far cheaper, than Visnovsky. As a bonus, with the forward depth that team has Stoll should actually be effective there. So maybe this wasn't a salary dump? Nah. It was still a salary dump.

That leaves us with Visnovsky himself. The noise made about how bad his 07-08 year was requires a look back at the team he was playing for - it was a far better defense then (and that isn't saying much). Odds are good a large part of the fall-off in his play has to do with defensive pairings and overall quality of the team.

i.e. Visnovsky didn't get THAT bad overnight. He had some help.

Heh. I have to think that with the goaltending about to be upgraded Lombardi had find a way to ensure one more really high draft pick... Voila! a new Kings defense!


Taking a look at it I have to say that I see it as a good deal for the Oilers. They got the better player and the Oilers have the pieces to put Visnovsky in a situation where he will succeed. Given his skill set we should see two or three good years followed by a couple of declining skill set years.

The problems for the Oil are two fold:

1. they are 2.2 million closer to the Cap today than they were yesterday. The stage is now set for the Oilers to make a second move. Thay almost have to. The rumors surrounding Pitkanen get hotter every day.

2. the age set of the team is skewed. One would think this team is being set-up for a real run at the play-offs and while that should always be the goal how much better is a team that keeps Souray and Visnovsky over a guy like Pitkanen?

Question of the day - what does Visnovsky have for no-trade or no-move clauses?

What was, I had thought, going to be a fairly quiet summer has turned into summer that waits for the other shoe to drop.


Have a great evening everyone.

Friday, 27 June 2008

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - The List

This is my second look at the 2008 UFAs. My first post on the subject was here:

2008 UFA's - A First Look

There will be few 'preview' style posts for this UFA class (from myself that is) as I just don't see the value in the group this year. Only a handful of the players available are even worth investigating imo and so, to that end I will only list those players I deem:

a. available and/or
b. of interest to me and/or
c. just plain interesting as a signing

So no Sergei Federov listed, as I expect him to sign with Washington, and no Steve Kelly listed , as his numbers aren't good enough (in any sense) to make me think he is a player worth signing. Malone is now off my list because he is going to be far too expensive a signing and likewise for Hossa, Jagr, Campbell and Redden.

Numbers listed (in order) are: age, last contract, games played, counting numbers, overall TOI, powerplay TOI, shorthanded TOI and Desjardin numbers (EV rating, Quality of competition and quality of teammates).

Anyways, without further ado,


Gelinas ..... 38 .. $ 2.85 .. 57gm ... 9g.11a (20) .. +5
________ 14.06 .. 0.38 .. 1.38 ... +0.36 .. +0.02 .. -0.14

Sundin ...... 37 .. $ 5.50 .. 74gm .. 32g.46a (78) .. +17
________ 20.04 .. 4.25 .. 1.08 ... +1.60 .. +0.08 .. +0.25

Holik ....... 37 .. $ 4.25 .. 82gm .. 15g.19a (34) .. -14
________ 15.58 .. 1.47 .. 1.15 ... +0.11 .. +0.03 .. +0.04

Conroy ...... 37 .. $ 2.85 .. 79gm .. 12g.22a (34) .. +6
________ 17.09 .. 1.54 .. 2.29 ... +0.62 .. +0.07 .. 0.37

Naslund ..... 35 .. $ 6.00 .. 82gm .. 25g.30a (55) .. -7
________ 17.23 .. 3.35 .. 0.03 ... +0.02 .. -0.03 .. +0.12

Stillman .... 35 .. $ 1.75 .. 79gm .. 24g.41a (65) .. -15
________ 18.58 .. 4.07 .. 1.05 ... -0.08 .. +0.05 .. -0.03

Brunette .... 35 .. $ 1.60 .. 82gm .. 19g.40a (59) .. +5
________ 15.32 .. 3.07 .. 0.01 ... +0.54 .. +0.01 .. +0.03

Demitra ..... 34 .. $ 4.50 .. 68gm .. 15g.39a (54) .. +9
________ 19.42 .. 3.29 .. 1.37 ... +0.89 .. -0.02 .. +0.25

Satan ....... 34 .. $ 4.23 .. 80gm .. 16g.25a (41) .. -11
________ 18.19 .. 3.54 .. 0.43 ... +0.82 .. -0.00 .. +0.02

Pandolpho ... 34 .. $ 0.84 .. 54gm .. 12g.12a (24) .. +10
________ 17.16 .. 0.27 .. 2.59 ... +0.85 .. +0.16 .. +0.12

Kapanen ..... 30 .. $ 0.85 .. 79gm .. 10g.18a (28) .. -1
________ 13.14 .. 2.17 .. 0.12 ... +0.26 .. -0.03 .. -0.00

Fedotenko ... 29 .. $ 2.90 .. 67gm .. 16g.17a (33) .. -9
________ 16.41 .. 2.13 .. 0.56 ... -0.11 .. +0.06 .. -0.10

Dupuis ...... 29 .. $ 0.88 .. 78gm .. 12g.15a (27) .. +0
________ 15.11 .. 0.18 .. 2.36 ... +0.16 .. +0.02 .. -0.00

Hagman ...... 29 .. $ 0.68 .. 82gm .. 27g.14a (41) .. +4
________ 15.35 .. 2.21 .. 2.11 ... -0.26 .. -0.00 .. -0.13

Tjarnqvist .. 29 .. $ 0.46 .. 78gm ... 4g..7a (11) .. -1
________ 13.38 .. 0.07 .. 3.05 ... +0.29 .. +0.03 .. -0.09

Ryder ...... 28 .. $ 2.95 .. 70gm .. 14g.17a (31) .. -4
________ 13.14 .. 2.07 .. 0.05 ... -0.36 .. +0.06 .. -0.16

Williams .... 28 .. $ 1.60 .. 43gm .. 13g.23a (36) .. -2
________ 16.34 .. 4.21 .. 0.22 ... +0.55 .. +0.04 .. +0.28

Vasicek ..... 28 .. $ 0.75 .. 81gm .. 16g.19a (35) .. +1
________ 15.51 .. 1.24 .. 1.24 ... +0.70 .. +0.03 .. +0.07

Glencross ... 26 .. $ 0.53 .. 62gm .. 15g.10a (25) .. +8
________ 11.21 .. 0.54 .. 2.41 ... +0.91 .. -0.05 .. -0.15


Modry ....... 37 .. $ 1.20 .. 42gm ... 1g..8a (9) ... -9
________ 19.03 .. 0.31 .. 2.43 ... +0.03 .. +0.01 .. -0.02

Smith ....... 35 .. $ 1.98 .. 77gm ... 1g..9a (10) .. -4
________ 17.56 .. 0.08 .. 2.54 ... -0.03 .. -0.03 .. +0.07

Malik ....... 33 .. $ 2.50 .. 42gm ... 2g..8a (10) .. +7
________ 19.14 .. 0.14 .. 2.39 ... +1.07 .. +0.06 .. -0.02

Salvador .... 32 .. $ 1.40 .. 64gm ... 1g.10a (11) .. +12
________ 19.47 .. 0.08 .. 3.23 ... +0.48 .. +0.09 .. -0.17

Roszival .... 30 .. $ 2.10 .. 80gm .. 13g.25a (38) .. +0
________ 24.33 .. 3.47 .. 2.58 ... -0.11 .. +0.05 .. +0.10

Mara ........ 29 .. $ 3.00 .. 61gm ... 1g.16a (17) .. +1
________ 17.53 .. 2.16 .. 1.42 ... +0.01 .. -0.00 .. -0.09

Commodore ... 29 .. $ 1.25 .. 67gm ... 3g.11a (14) .. -7
________ 18.12 .. 0.22 .. 3.00 ... +0.11 .. +0.01 .. -0.05

Finger ...... 29 .. $ 0.48 .. 72gm ... 8g.11a (19) .. +12
________ 19.57 .. 1.03 .. 2.18 ... +0.40 .. -0.06 .. -0.07

Vandermeer .. 28 .. $ 1.23 .. 75gm ... 3g.14a (17) .. +6
________ 19.38 .. 1.29 .. 2.25 ... +0.56 .. -0.05 .. +0.11

Hainsey ..... 27 .. $ 0.74 .. 78gm ... 8g.24a (32) .. -7
________ 22.33 .. 4.28 .. 1.30 ... -0.58 .. -0.00 .. +0.02

Sauer ....... 27 .. $ 0.72 .. 54gm ... 1g..5a (7) ... +17
________ 18.41 .. 0.05 .. 3.10 ... +1.29 .. +0.12 .. -0.02


-- Randy Robitaille (underwhelming center who won't embarrass / very affordable and has some veteran savvy),
-- Andre Roy (4th line enforcer who won't cost much / can easily cover his minimal game time)
-- Ryan Johnson (slightly less skilled, slightly cheaper, version of Randy Robitaille)
-- Mike Weaver (cheap, veteran defender who is an obvious step up from standard AHL call-up fodder)


Sundin is the man.

Where I can look at Campbell and say that anything more than 6 mill or so /yr is a probable overpay (likewise for the rest of the 'name' UFAs) I can look at Sundin and say he is worth every penny he will make, from whatever team signs him, almost regardless of amount.

The guy is amazing. By every measure he is a superior player. Every one. If an established team, like Montreal, secures his name on a contract then Montreal is my new Cup favorite come the 2008-09 season.

A phenomenal player. The only issue with Sundin? Having to carry sad sack rosters in Toronto all these years. That is it.


The first thing that comes to mind, when I look at this list, is just how 'old' most of these players are. Commentators may wax poetic about the sinking UFA age but the majority of impact UFA signings will still involve players well over 30 years old.

If you look at my measures I tend to value counting numbers (a starting point), Desjardin numbers (for insight), and TOI numbers (for insight). After that it is all about context, strategy and tactics.

The players I have listed are the guys who, typically, show the good value characteristics - hence it is interesting that most of those are players nearer the end of their career rather than players 'in their primes'.

A team that really wants to have a solid shot at the Cup, but misses out on Hossa, et al would probably do well to see if they can sign some combination of Gelinas, Holik, Conroy, etc. Get three of the greys on this list for 5 million or so (combined) and you have a decent 3rd line that play above its weight when required.

Serious Cup contenders have solid depth throughout their line-up and if you don't have a whack of Spitfires coming up from the minors then maybe a set of old B-17's are the just the ticket to deal with what ails you.

(and yes, I know one is a british fighter plane and the other is an american bomber - just let it flow okay?)


Have a great evening everyone.

Thursday, 26 June 2008

NHL Entry Draft 2008 - Your Oilers

Note that I have borrowed liberally from TSN, the NHL and The photo above is from the Leader_Post. All credit is due them.

Oilers didn't make any moves and in an atmosphere of highly inflated costs, while operating with less-than-normal-value assets, this was the right move to make.

Unlike last year, where they took a bunch of sleeper picks with their late rounders, this year the management team went for safe picks. Guys who should make, at the least, the AHL team. This is totally okay. Sometimes you have to change where you fish.

Without further ado, at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft the Edmonton Oilers draft picks were:

022 - Jordan Eberle

Shoots: R
1990 Birthyear
5'10" / 174 lbs

Top-6 skill player. Numbers are very impressive given team and conference. Good equivalencies. I like the pick. He projects out well, wasn't a reach at where he was chosen and has the skills needed to play. Issue is that he is small both in height and weight - since he doesn't have blazing speed (Cogliano) or phenomenal skills (Gagner) he will have to be really, REALLY smart (which he reportedly is) to play to form. That said, a good choice.

From NHL Central Scouting: Jordan is a slippery scorer with great hands. Jordan is an up-and-down the wing tease in the sense that sometimes he'll look like he's just going up and down the wing and you have him slotted as a checker and then he'll cut in off the wing and use that shot to put his team up a goal. He needs to improve a little bit on his consistency, in that sometimes his up and down game gets too frequent and he has to learn that all his good skills can't be hidden – he has to use them more often.

From TSN: A somewhat under-sized centre, Eberle is considered one of the smartest offensive players in the draft. He is a better goal-scorer than a playmaker and is an elusive talent when he has the puck. There are some questions about his speed, but he does have quickness, especially in tight situations and one-on-ones.

103 - Johan Motin

Shoots: L
1989 Birthyear
6'1" / 202 lbs

3rd pair defensive defenseman. Decent size and was (very) highly regarded just the year before. Decent game by all reports but stalled in 2007-08. Which is the issue - did the engine cough a little or did the transmission drop out? The review does not lend itself to hope but an independent blog scores him well (go to Illegal Curve for the full read). Interesting pick imo as the team is chock full of puckmover d-prospects so maybe it was time for a stay-at-home (you know... BPA).

From Motin is a stay-at-home defenseman with very good size and strength. He has the potential to become a bruising defenseman if he develops his physical game. At this point, his is inconsistent when it comes to playing the body and should act with more resolution and confidence along the boards and in front of his goalie. Offensively, there is little to say about Motin. He does not have the fundamental skills to contribute in a big way in terms of points and hockey sense is limited to playing it safe in his own end. Motin’s puck skills are rather average and on the downside, mobility and speed could use some improvement.

From Illegal Curve: ... defender who is likely close to NHL ready. He has already played half a season in the Swedish Elite League and boasts a steady, mature game ... Not an overly offensive player, Motin does have a good shot and offensive instincts, but plays more of a solid 2-way game and leans a little to the defensive. He has all the tools that you hear scouts repeat when talking about defenseman that they like: size, strength, mobility, lateral quickness, instincts and hockey sense.

133 - Philippe Cornet

Shoots: L
1990 Birthyear
6'0" / 173 lbs

Top-6 or bust skill winger from the QMJHL. Offense orientated and seems to have the skills but not necessarily the numbers. Not a bruiser by any means but I haven't seen much that outright labels him as 'soft' - so that is interesting. One of those 'waddya want from a 5th round pick?' kind of picks.

From NHL Central Scouting: ... moves the puck well, especially on the power-play. While not a great skater – he has a short stride – he can keep up the pace in a quick game with some deceptive speed. He is not an overly physical player and needs to work on winning the one-on-one battles to take his game to the next level.

163 - Teemu Hartikainen

Shoots: L
1990 Birthyear
6'1" / 198 lbs

(Maybe the guy in the Kalpa banner is him?)

Hard working 4th line winger who will need a skill to stick in the NHL. First of all, he is a Finn. For some reason, in my brain, that equals good. By all accounts (i.e. the chatter) he is a hardworking guy, has heart, has brains, uses his body effectively, will block shots and knows how to play at both ends at both ends of the ice. The problem is that he is slow. I like a pick like this because it means that IF the guy can develop better skating he can be an impact energy guy with upside - and that is all you really want from a 6th round pick anyways.

From NHL Central Scouting: nothing reported.

From nothing reported.

193 - Jordan Bendfeld

Shoots: R
1988 Birthyear
6'2" / 216 lbs

Seventh defenseman. 20 yr old bruiser who will slip into a Falcons jersey sooner rather than later. Draft re-entry this pick was all about filling a need in Sprinfield. While it is okay to use 7th round picks for that sort thing it shouldn't become a habit; taking a flyer on a skill player who could turn out is probably a better way to go imo.

From NHL Central Scouting: nothing reported.

From nothing reported.


Have a great evening everyone.

Monday, 23 June 2008

NHL Entry Draft (2008) - Review

The more I think about this draft the more 'meh' I am with it - at least as far as the performance of the Oilers go that is. First off we have some opening trades that affected the initial draft order:

a. Calgary trades the #17 pick to LA for Camalleri and then sends Tanguay to Montreal for the #25 pick. LA now has the #2 pick, the 17th and the 28th while Calgary has #25.

b. Columbus trades the #19 pick and the #67 pick to Philadelphia for Umberger and the #118 pick. Philly now has the #19 pick.

01 ... TAM ... Stamkos
02 ... LAK ... Doughty
03 ... ATL ... Bogosian
04 ... STL ... Pietrangelo

The first 4 picks are all as advertised. Stamkos and the big D. Tampa and Atlanta have so many needs that they probably would have been better served by making a trade but the prospects they picked up are solid so I can't knock them too much.

Remember last year when I slammed LA for not making the easy trade down with Hickey topping their list (they took him at #4 when a trade down to #8 was an easy call)? Well...

This year the Islanders are in the same position but actually make the trade down (and escape my wrath for doing so). The Islanders trade down and send their #5 pick to Toronto for the #7 and one of two packages:

a. the 60th in 2008 and a (2009) 3rd rounder, or
b. the 68th in 2008 and a (2009) 2nd rounder

At the time of the trade the next 5 highest ranked prospects, per the aggregated method, available are, in order: Filatov (61 pts), Schenn (50 pts), Boedker (38 pts), Hodgson (32 pts) and Wilson (28 pts). Filatov and Schenn were ranked in the top-10 of all lists involved while Boedker and Hodgson showed up on 4 out of 5 lists. Wilson only showed on two top-10 lists.

Obviously the Islanders could slide here and still get a very talented player. Good trade.

05 ... TOR ... Schenn
06 ... CLB ... Filatov

Toronto, in giving up three prime assets to secure a player that most consider NOT to be one of the top-5 impact players in his own draft year, is now committed to a long, hard rebuild. Wow. I love Schenn but that was costly. [Editor's note: McGuire has to shut the hell up. Seriously.]

Good for the Islanders.

Columbus, having traded earlier for Umberger (great trade) pick up a skill guy in Filatov. Columbus still has huge problems in terms of overall depth on the team but this is a good pick. Gamebreakers are a must have in the NHL and the last two of that 'type' left are Filatov and Boedker.

So with the 7th pick the NY Islanders choose... to trade it to the Predators for the 9th overall pick and the 40th overall pick. Interesting. The Isles may screw up the pick but there is no question management is maximizing the trade value of that original #5 pick.

At the time of the trade the next 5 highest ranked prospects, per the aggregated method, available are, in order: Boedker (38 pts), Hodgson (32 pts), Wilson (28 pts), Myers (23 pts) and Petrov (18 pts). All show up on two or more top-10 lists but look at the point spreads - some serious drop off happening.

So the Islanders are going off the Board a little. Hope it works for them.

07 ... NAS ... Wilson
08 ... PHO ... Boedker
09 ... NYI ... Bailey

Wilson and Boedker are solid for where they are and, to be fair, Bailey isn't THAT far off the Board. He was top-10 on one list (ISS) and if I recall correctly (and I do) at least one guy pegged Bailey as an 'under the radar' high-quality pick.

So... I have to say that I am quietly impressed with what the Islander's managed to pull off here.

I would have been FAR more impressed however if they had managed to trade down one more time by scaring the pants off Vancouver and making them think they would never see Hodgson again... alas, the triple trade down remains an event rarely seen.

10 ... VAN ... Hodgson
11 ... CHI ... Beach

The maneuvering continues.

LA trades the #17 and the #28 to Anaheim for the 12th overall pick...

... and then ...

trades the #12 to Buffalo for the 13th overall and a 3rd round pick in 2009.

You have got to be kidding me. LA gives up some premium assets just to move up 5 spots while Buffalo, for some odd reason, decides to reward LA by allowing them to snag a pick for dropping back one spot. Anaheim, meanwhile, strikes gold.

Crazy. Hard to be too disparaging of any of the three teams because they all got what they wanted (I guess) but there is a clear ranking of winners here: Anaheim, LA and then Buffalo. Buffalo comes last because they should have called LA's bluff.

Reading between the lines this is a clear cut case of Burke's reputation allowing him to get the best of his fellow GM's. Myers and Teubert match Burke's preferences perfectly and LA just couldn't take the chance one of them would survive Anaheim and then Buffalo's picks.

Ottawa makes the next move and trades the #18 and a 3rd round pick in 2009 to Nashville for the #15 pick. This is a helluva draft day. Call this a win for Ottawa. They gave up less than everyone else has so far today.

12 ... BUF ... Myers
13 ... LAK ... Teubert
14 ... CAR ... Boychuk
15 ... OTT ... Karlsson
16 ... BOS ... Colborne

I hereby predict that Colborne will have an identity crisis as a prospect developing for Boston. He doesn't crash boards enough to be a Cam Neely or John LeClair type and he doesn't camp the net like a Dave Andreychuk would so, simply put, they got a really big guy who they hope can play one day.

As much as that is true of many a draft pick the question remains: Just who is he? A poor man's Joe Thornton? Do they even want THAT guy? The pressure on Colborne could be huge. I kid you not.

I can't help but think that Carolina's pick is the one LA should have targeted.

17 ... ANA ... Gardiner
18 ... NAS ... Pickard
19 ... PHI ... Sbisa
20 ... NYR ... Del Zotto

The draft has seen a whirlwind of trade activity but, as of yet, there haven't been any big surprises. No Niinimaki's and no Wheeler's to be seen. After four, relatively uneventful, picks the trade winds start blowing again with two trades made in the next 6 picks:

Washington trades the 23rd and 54th picks to New Jersey for the 21st overall pick,

and then

New Jersey trades that same 23rd pick to Minnesota for the 24th overall and a 3rd round pick in 2009.

21 ... WAS ... Gustafsson
22 ... EDM ... Eberle
23 ... MIN ... Cuma
24 ... NJD ... Tedenby
25 ... CAL ... Nemisz
26 ... BUF ... Ennis

3rd round picks (2008 or 2009) seem a little busy this draft day.

So Buffalo moves up one pick and I give 'em grief. Minnesota makes the same move and not a peep. Why? Simple. LA moved up hard for a shot at the guy they wanted - why do so and then waffle about it? I repeat, Buffalo should have passed.

Minnesota, otoh, couldn't be sure as to how far the Devils were willing to trade back. Better to nail it down and get it over with. The Devils did very well. Got the guy they wanted and two more picks.

The last two trades, from the draft floor that evening, come quickly:

Philadelphia trades the 27th overall pick to Minnesota for Eminger and the 84th overall,


Anaheim trades the 28th overall to Phoenix for the 35th and 39th picks.

27 ... WAS ... Carlson
28 ... PHO ... Tikhonov
29 ... ATL ... Leveille
30 ... DET ... McCollum

Anaheim, again, does well. Really well. Not so impressed with Philly's deal. Eminger has had several HORRIBLE years in a row now. He will need to rebound... hell with that... guy needs to relearn how to play the game he has been so bad.

Funny thing here. Tikhonov could have been had last year for any old 7th round pick.


The winners are (in order):

-- Montreal (Tanguay is that good imo),
-- Columbus (pays to be harmless),
-- New York Islanders (great maneuvers),
-- Anaheim (killer instinct),
-- New Jersey (did well),
-- Tikhonov.

The losers are (in order):

-- Calgary (Tanguay is that good imo),
-- Toronto (for a defensive d-man?),
-- Buffalo (baited and bit)

Montreal and Columbus, in getting Tanguay and Umberger respectively, are the big winners on draft day. Established, strong, players for draft picks - and not even the good ones - is always the best way to go.

-- for dropping 4 spots the Islanders snag 3 high quality picks (that 2nd rounder from Toronto in 2009 will be sweet) and get a nice prospect to boot. Very nice by any measure.

-- for the sake of developing a reputation Anaheim drops 5 spots and comes out of it with the skilled defenseman they wanted and 2 great 2nd round picks.

-- for the joy of dropping 3 spots New Jersey picks up 2 more draft picks and a nice offense-first winger.

Good work by Snow, Burke and Lamoriello imo.

As for the Oilers:

As I said. Meh. I like Eberle. They like Eberle. They didn't pay extra to get him. Moving up would have cost more than it was worth for the players I liked (Schenn, Bailey and Myers) so how can I be upset?

Maybe if Bailey had dropped to 18th or so I might be raising an eyebrow but as it stands it was an okay draft for Lowe and Co. imo.


Have a great evening everyone.

Wednesday, 18 June 2008

NHL Entry Draft (2008)

For archive purposes I am compiling my NHL Entry Draft (2008) stuff here. As with last year's NHL Entry Draft (2007) archive, this first post acts as a primer that contains the set-up info of interest going into the draft.

Links to the other two articles in this series:

NHL Entry Draft 2008 - First Round Review

NHL Entry Draft 2008 - Oiler Picks


Personal Thoughts

-- Stamkos - good player who won't live up to his draft pick
-- Filatov - spoiler pick for best career
-- Schenn - best 'safe' bet in the draft imo and a favorite of mine
-- Boedker - another personal favorite
-- Colborne - tied with Beach & Petrov for riskiest picks of the round
-- Petrov - only notable for how late he will be picked

I believe that this is the kind of draft where trading into the top-14 will net best value on the dollar. The sweet spot being in the 9-12 range. I do not expect Schenn or Boedker to make it that far but all it takes is a couple of off-the-board picks (Hickey) and suddenly a jump is possible.

Trading up to get a guy like Stamkos just isn't worth it but Lowe does have the assets to make a trade and get into the sweet spot area I mentioned.

i.e. a roster player and the 22nd should be enough to jump some 8 to 12 spots

What do I expect? I expect we shall see Lowe stand pat or trade a guy like Torres or Stoll for a couple of 2nd round picks.


Without further ado...

Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)

01 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
01 -- _22 ... Trade with Anaheim (Pronger)
02 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
03 -- ___ ... RFA Compensation to Anaheim
04 -- 103
05 -- 133
06 -- 163
07 -- 193

Remember to adjust for compensation picks.

Team Order - 1st Round

01.. Tampa Bay
02.. Los Angeles
03.. Atlanta
04.. St. Louis
05.. NY Islanders
06.. Columbus
07.. Toronto
08.. Phoenix
09.. Nashville ...... via ... Florida
10.. Vancouver
11.. Chicago
12.. Anaheim ........ via ... Edmonton
13.. Buffalo
14.. Carolina
15.. Nashville
16.. Boston
17.. Calgary
18.. Ottawa
19.. Columbus ....... via ... Colorado
20.. NY Rangers
21.. New Jersey
22.. Edmonton ....... via ... Anaheim
23.. Washington
24.. Minnesota
25.. Montreal
26.. Buffalo ........ via ... San Jose
27.. Philadelphia
28.. Los Angeles .... via ... Dallas
29.. Atlanta ........ via ... Pittsburgh
30.. Detroit

Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).

Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.

Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.

The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)

... McKeens ..... ISS ......... Redline ..... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos ..... Stamkos
2.. Bogosian .... Bogosian .... Filatov ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian
3.. Pietrange. .. Filatov ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian ... *Filatov
4.. Doughty ..... Doughty ..... Bogosian .... Filatov ..... Doughty
5.. Schenn ...... Pietrange. .. Boedker ..... Pietrange. .. Myers
6.. Boedker ..... Schenn ...... Schenn ...... Schenn ..... *Petrov
7.. Filatov ..... Boedker ..... Pietrange. .. Wilson ...... Schenn
8.. Picard ...... Wilson ...... Petrov ...... Hodgson ..... Pietrange.
9.. Hodgson ..... Hodgson ..... Hodgson ..... Boedker .... *Tedenby
10. Karlsson .... Bailey ...... Myers ....... Beach ....... Beach
11. Bailey ...... Sbisa ....... Wilson ...... Myers ....... Boychuk
12. Wilson ...... Boychuk ..... Tedenby ..... Boychuk .... *Karlsson
13. Markstrom ... Beach ....... Boychuk ..... Teubert ..... Hodgson
14. Teubert ..... Tedenby ..... Beach ....... Bailey ...... Wilson
15. Sbisa ....... Myers ....... Bailey ...... Del Zotto ... Boedker

Graded Rankings

.......... Top-10 . Scoring

Stamkos ..... 5 ___ 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 75
Bogosian .... 5 ___ 14 + 14 + 12 + 13 + 14 = 67
Doughty ..... 5 ___ 12 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 12 = 63
Filatov ..... 5 ___ 09 + 13 + 14 + 12 + 13 = 61
Pietrangelo . 5 ___ 13 + 11 + 09 + 11 + 08 = 52
Schenn ...... 5 ___ 11 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 09 = 50
Boedker ..... 4 ___ 10 + 09 + 11 + 07 + 01 = 38
Hodgson ..... 4 ___ 07 + 07 + 07 + 08 + 03 = 32
Wilson ...... 2 ___ 04 + 08 + 05 + 09 + 02 = 28
Myers ....... 2 ___ 00 + 01 + 06 + 05 + 11 = 23
Petrov ...... 2 ___ 00 + 00 + 08 + 00 + 10 = 18
Beach ....... 1 ___ 00 + 03 + 02 + 06 + 06 = 17
Boychuk ..... 0 ___ 00 + 04 + 03 + 04 + 05 = 17
Bailey ...... 1 ___ 05 + 06 + 01 + 02 + 00 = 14
Tedenby ..... 1 ___ 00 + 02 + 04 + 00 + 07 = 13
Karlsson .... 1 ___ 06 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 04 = 10
Picard ...... 1 ___ 08 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 08
Sbisa ....... 0 ___ 01 + 05 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 06
Teubert ..... 0 ___ 02 + 00 + 00 + 03 + 00 = 05
Markstrom ... 0 ___ 03 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 03
Del Zotto

The big 4: Stamkos, Bogosian, Doughty & Filatov
Next best thing: Pietrangelo, Schenn
Could be Good: Boedker, Hodgson & Wilson
Afterthoughts: Myers, Petrov, Beach, Boychuk & everyone else

A Rule Of Thumb

When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.

Bailey has 14 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Myers by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Wilson or Boedker.

Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:

-- Excepting that Tampa has signalled Stamkos, Bogosian could go #1
-- Filatov could overtake Bogosian and Doughty but Pietrangelo could not
-- If anyone ranked below Wilson is chosen in the top-7 it SHOULD be a major surprise
-- If anyone ranked below Bailey is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake


** CSS does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.


Have a great evening everyone, and enjoy the draft.

Tuesday, 17 June 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results


Please leave your comments here.

This is opposite the rest of the pages where I kindly ask that you withhold comment until I am done... I apologize for how long this took to produce.

Welcome to the 2007 edition of the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review. It is a comprehensive study of the draft history of the Edmonton Oilers NHL Hockey team. Two earlier editions of this study/review have been produced (by myself) in 2000 and in 2003. The 2000 study is, I believe, still archived at

The version you are looking at now is a complete upgrade of the original study (2000) and a minor upgrade of the second (2003).

This is a very long article/study. I review the last 29 years of the Edmonton Oilers draft history, grade every player on their performance as a hockey player, and then dissect that information into six (7) key analysis groups so that I can measure the success of the organization in terms of: Draft Year, Draft Pick, Draft Round, Player Age When Drafted, Drafting by Position, Developmental League and Nationality.

"... grade every player on their performance as a hockey player... ". This is very important and I will devote an entire chapter (the 'Player Grading System') of this review to that goal. For now I will limit my comments to a single, pertinent point: This study is concerned with the organizations ability to draft talent - how that player played for the Oilers or what 'value' that player had in relation to trades made (for example) is irrelevant.

While every page of this review will have some of my commentary on it, I am leaving much of the analysis open for discussion. Take from it what you will. This is, as far as I know, the most complete study of its kind anywhere and there is an amazing amount of ancillary work that could be done with a data set like this - go to town.

"... It is, after all, my work." Please keep that in mind, not just for purposes of copyright, but for purposes of simple etiquette as well. Feel free to critique - just don't be an ass about it.


Chapter links can be found below. The study is best read by following the links in order.

Without further ado, I invite you to read and enjoy, the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review (2007) Edition.


Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes


Have a great evening everyone.

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Year

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Draft Year

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

The first table takes the player-grading system (please check that section for more clarification if needed) and applies it to each draft-year. This results in a series of positive and negative scores that indicate the degree of success the organization had in each draft year.

A second table (see below) is then used to assign a grade those scores - i.e. 1979 and 1996 may both have a positive score but even the village idiot will tell you that 1979 was a much better draft year. Loosely based on the player-grading system it serves to organize and summarize our information.

On a year-to-year basis it becomes easier to understand what has hurt the Oilers organization at the draft table - they fail too big. Yes, the team has three spectacular draft years. It also has one, absolutely disastrous, draft year and a host of other significant failures. Many of the Oilers passing grades are borderline in nature (once you get past the hall of fame years) while the vast majority of the 'failing grade years' are bad or really, really bad.

One more observation. If you look carefully at the results you will notice that the most successful years of the organization (in terms of hockey played) were a direct result of having several successful draft years in succession (79 / 80 / 81). Since then the Oilers organization has not had any stretch of drafts back-to-back that were successful. 1993 was a good year, but it stood alone and the impact it had could not be sustained.

Question: Ladislav Benysek only made the league because of expansion - just how many freebie points did this team get because expansion made players out of nobodies and extended the careers of others? Answer: Probably lots.

However, consider this - without the expansion teams diluting the draft pool the Oilers may have made some much better draft choices. Overall I have to believe that those two factors cancel each other out.

Question: When I add up all of the scoring numbers you generated for each year I get an average score of +137, doesn't this mean that the Oilers have a successful draft history? Answer: No.

Points are weighted to years and the number of players. Drafting six hall of fame players out of 300 draft picks doesn't mean much overall but in that particular draft year it makes a huge impact and it skews the average up accordingly.

Question: Pisani, Lombardi and Stoll are all rated as 'journeymen' - way better than that aren't they? Answer: Yes, but time is a big factor in this.

All three are early into their careers and none have dominating years on their resume (Stoll's PP boosted year perhaps?). Two years from now, given consistent performance, I would be hard-pressed NOT to have them rated as 'solid' players. Look at the Changes To Data Set chart for reference

Question: Is there ANY hope at all? Answer: Yeah. Always is.

Been a long time since the team had two 'Star' level prospects on the team (Cogs and Gagner) and if any three of Chorney, Dubnyk, Nash, Petry, Pouliot (I'll remain on that bandwagon), Schremp or Wild actually reach potential this team could put together some solid years. I will also retain hope for personal faves Quist and Spurgeon.


Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes


Have a great evening everyone.

Monday, 16 June 2008

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - By Pick

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Results by Draft Pick Used

Please reserve comment for a future post wherein I will request commentary on the review as a whole.

Two factors are important when evaluating a teams drafting history in terms of the Draft Pick used to secure the prospect. Those factors are: 1) the quality of player and 2) which pick was used. Players drafted 1st overall should become 'stars' (if not superstars) while players drafted, say, 209th are true longshots.

i.e. a 'star' player drafted 210th overall is worth more than if that same 'star' player was drafted 15th overall.

This also affects the negative scores of unranked players drafted early; let's face it - screwing up a top-10 pick, on which the organization has spent considerable scouting resources, is worse than screwing up a 244th throw-away pick.

Note that this chart is an addition to the study (I try to add a new feature every time) and that it is closely related to the study that looks at Results by Round when Player was Drafted. Very closely related. Given that the principle is roughly the same (don't screw up early draft picks) I even used the same wording for some sections.

At this point however I have not yet come up with a decent formula to use for the purposes of handing out grading scores (as done elsewhere). I apologize for that. Perhaps I may yet find myself some stats wizards and let them come up with better mathematical models for me to use.

Don't leave empty handed however. Take a quick look at the teams performance when drafting out of the 13-20 spots. I suspect that helps explain a whole whack of those 'out-of-the-play-offs' years.


Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes


Have a great evening everyone.