Oilers 2007-08 Season Preview

Executive Summary

The team is a mess. The forward group will be overmatched most night and the defense is a mish-mash of ill-fitting parts. Goaltending will have to carry the team but as good as the tandem of Roloson/Garon is they don't make for a Luongo and to be honest it would take a goaltender THAT good to make this team finish in the play-offs.

Projected Finish: somewhere between 22nd to 26th overall.

Scariest Stat from 2006-07: Roloson's PP sv% of .894 was 8th best

Forwards

This group is a mess. At best this team can put together two decent lines and after that it will be overmatched vets babysitting rookies.

Hemsky & Horcoff

Expect these two to carry the load. I don't know if Horcoff can raise his game another notch but he will have to now that Smyth is gone. Hemsky remains in the tweener zone (star or superstar?) but his skills are unmatched on this team.

Penner, Stoll & Torres

Three guys who may or may not be positive contributors. Can Penner be a team leading, 1st line LW? Can Stoll overcome his concussion? Will Torres finally become a consistent performer (in a good way)? Too many question marks for players who should be sure bets.

Moreau & Pisani

Two of the teams better players and both are out to start the season. A full roster of veterans to start the season and MAYBE this team isn't bottom-6 but that doesn't matter now. Both players are out and Lowe didn't pick up any veterans to carry the slack. wheeeee!

Reasoner, Sanderson & Thoreson

Thoreson is just starting out, Reasoner is settling in and Sanderson is almost done. As 4th line guys they should be fine. Anything beyond that is debateable. I expect/hope Sanderson to be deadline fodder and I protest Thoreson's start in the minors.

Nilsson, Pouliot & JF Jaques

Three of the rookies who have substantial playing time at either the AHL or NHL level (substantial for rookies anyways). Left side is weak so expect them to get their time there. Two of the three should pan out as NHLers and you know I am a Pouliot fan...

Brodziak, Cogliano & Gagner

All rookies. Gagner still has that 'new-baby' smell but the other three have lots of college or AHL experience so that may make the difference. This should be Brodziak's best chance to make the club and I expect Gagner to get 10 games in. Cogliano is loved by the team so he will make the team in some capacity.

Defensemen

Another mess. More skill than last year but the player mix is a mish-mash of specialty skills and rookie mistakes waiting to happen. Few natural pairings means trouble.

Souray & Staios

These two will have to be the stalwarts on this this club. Both will probably have to take on a babysitters role and depending on baby it is hard to say how well they will do. Problem: both players are more suited to playing the role of a #4 or even #5 guy. Funny thing, Staios backing Souray makes for a decent defensive pair... but we don't have the depth for that.

Pitkanen & Tarnstrom

Which Pitkanen and which Tarnstrom will show up? Both have shown that they can be star point producers but in this case neither one will be running the show where it counts (the PP). Pitkanen will have to steady his game and balance point scoring with strong defensive play while Tarnstrom will have to be a steadier defender than most think he can be.

Grebeshkov, Greene & Smid

All of these guys have some 'at-bats' but that doesn't mean they are anywhere near the top of the order. Grebs is a total wildcard - did a year in Russia help or hurt? Greene is a lean, mean penalty taking machine built for the old NHL more than the new while Smid continues to hope the game slows down for him. Problem is, the team can't wait on baby steps.

Gilbert, Rourke & Roy

Interesting cases here. While all are, technically, rookies, they are all older than their NHL games played would indicate. Roy and Rourke should be the least risky #7 guys this team has ever fielded while Gilbert, despite a good training camp, will probably need his year in the minors. Look for all three to get some games in. Lots of games would probably be a bad thing.

Goalie's

Roloson & Garon

Best goaltending rotation this team has had in years. I don't even need to get specific. Roloson and Garon are both good goalie's capable of above average play. Garon had injury issues last year but he should still make for a capable back-up. Roloson is getting older but hopefully that doesn't cross the line into too old this year.

How Will They Do?

My projected finish (just based on gut feeling) is somewhere between 22nd to 26th overall. Believe it or not. Some teams are worse right out of the gate while others are just a player injury away from total collapse. Some made up percentages:

00% - finish 01 - 14 (don't even think it)
01% - finish 15 - 16 (perchance to dream)
09% - finish 17 - 19 (if it ALL works out)
20% - finish 20 - 22 (a real possibility)
50% - finish 23 - 25 (most probable imo)
15% - finish 26 - 27 (shouldn't be this bad)
05% - finish 28 - 30 (PHX, CBJ, CHI)

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Have a great evening everyone.

Smart, Smart, Smart

Smartest Trade of 2006-07

Not best. Smartest.

The Philadelphia Flyers trade Freddy Meyers Jr. and a conditional 3rd round draft pick to the New York Islanders for Alexei Zhitnik.

Holmgren knew he had budget and Cap to spare and he knew SOMEONE at the deadline would give him more for Zhitnik than he gave up. Now, granted, the return he did get for Zhitnik was over the moon (Coburn... wtf?), but even if one calls that a fluke it was STILL a very heady trade by Holmgren who, I might think, knows a little about buy low and sell high.

Smart, smart trade.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - An Off-Season Review - 2007 Edition

Not a great off-season for Lowe. I cannot say it more clearly.

The Good

Garon was a great signing by Lowe. He had injury issues last year but in the games he did play his Sv% was a respectable .907%. He will provide excellent back-up goaltending for Roloson and can step into the #1 role if Roloson falters.

Pitkanen will always be an exceptionally talented defenseman. Getting the best player in a trade usually means your team won the trade and Lowe won this trade. The only problem here is that Pitkanen is even more Hemsky than Hemsky is.**

** With Hemsky we only wonder if he will ever take the next step up, Pitkanen is fully capable of taking a step back - that would make him a very expensive mistake given his numbers justify a $4.5 mill+ contract. For those kind of dollars you want a guy who can do more than score.

The Meh

Tarnstrom is a guy I have ALWAYS supported. Normally I would consider this a great move. Problem is that Lowe also added Souray and we already have Stoll - that makes three players who rely on PP results, generated from the point, for their scoring. And where does Pitkanen fit in there?

The rest of the Pitkanen deal (as a group):

-- Sanderson is deadweight who will probably last the year with us. Lowe MIGHT be able to dump him (deadline) for a late pick but miracles are not for us.

-- Lupul wasn't a good fit here. The Oilers just don't have a line where they can hide him. He might do okay in Philly given that they have more centers capable of babysitting him.

-- Smith is a HUGE loss for the Oilers. One of the few players on the team who is capable of making any player he plays with better.

I like Pitkanen enough that I can avoid giving this deal a thumbs down but mark my words - Smith was team super-glue and I am legitimately scared for this team without him back there. To be frank, if Lowe had had the option to send Greene or Grebeshkov instead, it would have been a better move (even if we then had to throw in the draft pick).

The Bad

Penner should settle in as a decent #2 winger for the Oilers. Problem is that the Lowe picked him up at a much higher price than he should have. The team will easily be one of the worst in the league and top-5 picks in deep drafts are almost a gimme when it comes to drafting IMPACT players. This one hurts.

Souray is the kind of defenseman who should be playing on the 3rd pair at Even Strength, the 1st pair on the power play and the 2nd pair on the penalty kill. In those spots he should be a difference maker. The problem is that, at that pay ($5.4 mill/yr and 3yrs NMC) he:

a. will not be playing a lesser role (at EV) that maximizes his skill set, and he

b. takes us right to the Cap limit (crippling the teams ability to make trades), and he

c. has to perform at an elite level just to justify the dollars, and Cap space - the contract is essentially unmovable.

ALSO

e. there is no proof Souray is a driver of PP results (the stats only show that he can score), and

f. the team already had a PP pointman with a big shot in Stoll, and

g. the team had already added Tarnstrom, and

h. the addition of Souray just further unbalanced the roster (too few players good at EV).

All in all - a complete disaster in the making. Of all the bullets posted it is 'c' that matters - at 5.4 mill /yr the Oilers can't afford to have Souray perform at anything less than an elite level. There is no room for margin in this contract.

Hejda, on the other hand, is the sort of defenseman you only dream of (as a GM). Last half of the year he played like a legit #3 guy. Given that he is a VETERAN player from the Euro leagues I find it hard to assume that his level of performance could/would backslide much. Absolutely collosal blunder by Lowe.

Johnson and Dvorak are the kind of forwards a team needs to sign during rebuild years. They provide veteran play on the 3rd and 4th lines and can shelter rookies as they develop and learn the game. If the team is lucky they can outperform their opposite lines and provide a boost to the entire team in doing so. Too bad Lowe didn't sign ANY of those kinds of players.

SUMMARY

The signing of Garon makes sense for any team at any time. Good back-up goaltending, signed for cheap, is... just... well... it's every good thing. Kudo's to Lowe.

The 'not' signing of Hejda makes no sense at any time for any team. Cheap, reliable, young. It doesn't get any better than that. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

After that, the problem is that Lowe's moves, as a whole, don't make sense. Edmonton is NOT a contender. Contending teams come in several flavors and Edmonton is none of those. Hence, this is a rebuild year. Given that then:

-- Pitkanen is a great player to trade for. Young, can produce, could be dominant, didn't give up too much for him. Losing Smith hurts but for a rebuild this is as good as it gets.

-- Tarnstrom was an excellent signing. Short-term deal, veteran player, deadline trade-bait all the way. Unfortunately, this is the last move Lowe made that makes sense.

-- Penner was a horrible signing to make. By all means, PUSH Anaheim on the dollars, but giving up a 1st, in a draft like the 2008 will be, given how bad the team is, insane.

-- Souray is not a player that a rebuilding team signs to a long-term deal with a NMC. Overpay for one or two years and trade at the first deadline the first chance you get. Or don't sign at all.

One might think that three positives (Garon, Pitkanen, Tarnstrom) and three negatives (Hejda, Penner, Souray) makes for neutral - the team is no worse and no better. Problems are that neutral still means a REALLY bad team, the team is in a long-term rebuild cycle hindered by medium-term contracts and there is no long-term upside (the 1st rnd pick).

Not a great off-season for the Oilers at all. A tremendous number of things will have to break in our favor just to ensure we aren't giving Anaheim a lotto pick. Ouch.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - Rookie Camp - Yellowknife 2007 - Part 3

It is like he is looking into my soul. Joey is da bomb.

A SUMMARY

I cannot say enough good things about the Edmonton Oilers management and the players they brought up here. Great lift for the City of Yellowknife and the honours given Shorty Brown are of a higher order.

For all it is worth, 'Thank You'.

My Favorite Player:

TYLER SPURGEON - Best player on the ice, imo, all three days. Pure joy to watch. Everything you want in a 3rd or 4th line guy. EVERYTHING. I hope he has a career as great and wide as the smile I wore whenever I saw it was him with the puck. Never let me down once.

My Favorite Surprise:

WILLIAM QUIST - Easily the best 'who?' on the Oilers depth chart. If I am a GM with another team Quist is the guy I want as a 'throw-in' if I am trading with the Oilers. If he adds a shot to his game he could really surprise. The first impact Swede for us?

My Favorite... Tie?:

BRYAN YOUNG and SEBASTIEN BISAILLON - Either one of these guys could turn into a real, live d-man who makes a difference in the pro's. Not even close to a sure thing BUT you can see elements of the pro-game in their game and that is what gives them a leg up on most of the guys I saw here.

My Biggest WTF?:

ANDREW COGLIANO and RYAN O'MARRA - Neither really showed me much. Normally that might not bother me EXCEPT that it was clear they had better skills and 'game' than most of the guys they were playing against. Both should have had more dominant moments than they did.

And that is it. All the comments I really want to make. My apologies for how long this took to post. Got busy and got writer's block and got nuthin' written. Simple as that.

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To reiterate, this post is the third of three (oddly enough). The other two are found (in counting order) below this one.

Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - Rookie Camp - Yellowknife 2007 - Part 1

First & Foremost

Thanks and recognition to the Oilers rookies, coaches and management for bringing the rookie camp up to Yellowknife.

Greatly appreciated. Greatly enjoyed.

The team was very active in the city the last few days and it was nice to see Oiler blue popping up everywhere I went. A lot of kids got to see their heroes, or at least young replicas of such, and I can tell you truly - heroes are a wonderful thing to have.

The Oilers also took the time to honor Shorty Brown. A local hockey icon and a class act if there ever was one I will try to post something, specifically about him, at another time.

Oh yeah - some of the local refs got to officiate the scrimmages. They didn't call too much but from where I sit: 'Who cares?'. Really. For those guys this must have been like their very own day with the Stanley Cup. Almost brought a tear to me eye it did. Couple of my buddies are hoping it doesn't go to their heads but all agreed - it was pretty freakin' awesome regardless.

This first post will cover the basics while the second post will cover what I actually saw. My main interest will be to watch the practices and the scrimmages. So don't go expectin' no fancy scoutin' reports or nuthin' like that. For what it is worth I will give you my opinion on the players at hand and what I think can be expected of them in the future.

Without further ado,

The Roster

01 - Dubnyk ......... 1st round
13 - Cogliano ....... 1st round
20 - O'Marra ........ 1st round
30 - Fisher ......... 5th round
37 - Contois ........ pro
39 - Rohlfs ......... 5th round
41 - Plante ......... 1st round
42 - Almtorp ........ 4th round
43 - Johansson ...... 9th round
45 - Micflikier ..... pro
47 - Berube ......... amateur
49 - Peckham ........ 3rd round
50 - Pitton ......... 5th round
53 - Stamler ........ amateur
54 - McGinnis ....... amateur
55 - Huxley ......... pro
56 - Chwedoruk ...... pro
57 - McDonald ....... 2nd round
58 - Trukhno ........ 4th round
59 - DePape ......... amateur
60 - Bisaillon ...... signed FA
61 - LeBlanc ........ amateur
65 - Bodie .......... 9th round
66 - Spurgeon ....... 8th round
67 - Kytnar ......... 5th round
68 - Quist .......... 6th round
71 - Foreman ........ amateur
72 - Todd ........... amateur
74 - Pepe ........... amateur
75 - Holden ......... amateur
76 - Young .......... 5th round
79 - Goulet ......... 7th round
80 - Karamnov ....... amateur
81 - Paige .......... amateur
82 - Dobek .......... pro
84 - Paukovich ...... 2nd round
85 - Reddox ......... 4th round
86 - Kronschnabel ... pro

Line-Ups

Team Blue

85 Reddox ------- 13 Cogliano ---- 39 Rohlfs
45 MicFlikier --- 67 Kytnar ------ 55 Huxley
81 Paige -------- 84 Paukovich --- 56 Chwedoruk
82 Dobek -------- 43 Johansson --- 71 Foreman

76 Young --- 60 Bisaillon
74 Pepe ---- 53 Stamler
47 Berube

01 Dubnyk

Team White

58 Trukhno --- 20 O'Marra ---- 57 MacDonald
65 Bodie ----- 80 Karamnov --- 68 Quist
79 Goulet ---- 66 Spurgeon --- 86 Kronschnabel
61 Leblanc --- 42 Almtorp ---- 59 DePape
------------------------------ 37 Contois

49 Peckham ---- 41 Plante
54 McGinnis --- 75 Holden
72 Todd

30 Fisher
50 Pitton

Team White has the much better 1st line (Forwards) but Team Blue has a much better 1st pair (Defense).

Players To Watch

Long Look - big names or guys from whom a lot is expected

01 - Dubnyk ......... 1st round
13 - Cogliano ....... 1st round
20 - O'Marra ........ 1st round
57 - McDonald ....... 2nd round
58 - Trukhno ........ 4th round
41 - Plante ......... 1st round

Good Look - second tier names and guys who have shown well in past camps

49 - Peckham ........ 3rd round
42 - Almtorp ........ 4th round
43 - Johansson ...... 9th round
66 - Spurgeon ....... 8th round
76 - Young .......... 5th round
60 - Bisaillon ...... signed FA
84 - Paukovich ...... 2nd round
85 - Reddox ......... 4th round

Peekaboo - the 'get-them-to-camp-and-actually-see-what-they-got' group

67 - Kytnar ......... 5th round
68 - Quist .......... 6th round
80 - Karamnov ....... amateur

The rest of the guys listed are, pretty much, scrubs; there to fill the roster so full scrimmages can be played. Note that some of them are already assigned to certain teams: Stamler (Oil Kings) and Huxley (Springfield) among others.

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Again, the second post directly follows this one. Oddly enough the third and final post in this series (the summary) is directly above this one.

Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - Rookie Camp - Yellowknife 2007 - Part 2

Ah crapola. The math works like so:

One major house reno + one political campaign + one crazy work week + one upcoming vacation (an actual week off!) = one truncated, and (now VERY) late, rookie camp post.

grrrrr

I was there for all 3 days. Typical set-up was to have one-vs-one drills until 10:00am (or so) followed by half-ice line-up drills (forwards vs. defense) until 10:30. After that the ice was cleaned off and the scrimmage would take place.

Day One

Bisaillon - A cut above most of these guys when it comes to skating, passing and puck possession.

Cogliano - Speed advantage is obvious but he didn't do much with it. A lot of solo work in his game but it isn't like Reddox and Rohlfs were giving him much to work with.

Kyntar - Spending a lot of time thinking the game. Not a floater by any means, you just hope he starts to think less and do more at some point.

O'Marra - Like Cogliano you can tell he is more skilled than most here. Also, like Cogliano, he really didn't get anything done today imo. My notes do say he had a good last 5 mins.

Peckham - Strong guy, never saw anyone outmuscle him really (also liked how he stood Kyntar up at the line on one one his shifts). All higher end skills need work (passing, positioning, etc).

Quist - Big Swede has game. Really. Like Kyntar he took a bit to get his bearings but once he did he was fine. Will dish a hit and will take one. Not afraid to shoot but not a puck-hog either. Has a knack for making himself available for a pass without being a floater. Handles the rough stuff well.

Reddox - Invisible all game except for a great shift right near the end of the game.

Spurgeon - Best player on the day. Outstanding hustle. Thoreson's Canadian clone. Opportunistic on offense and first guy back on defense. Great on the boards and buzzes the net. Leads his line. Scored both goals. Everything I hoped O'Marra would be.

Young - Best board control I have ever seen at any level below that of NHL calibre play. Skating was better than I thought it would be and he played a simple, effective game through-out.

Day Two

Almtorp - I think this guy has been winning a LOT of face-offs.

Bisaillon - Laid out some nice hits today. Nice surprise for me given I saw none of that yesterday. Really wiffed one clearing attempt.

Contois - Won't have a big league career but let it be noted here that he works his butt off out there AND he knows when to cut in front of the net (not his own) and make chaos.

Cogliano - Still has the speed and still not doing much BUT he is starting to use what he does have more effectively to my mind. Broke up a couple of plays going the other way (nice to see he knows how to play defense).

Huxley - This guy was hilarious. Had a horrible, HORRIBLE practice but then had a pretty good game and THEN had a GREAT shoot-out goal at the end. He was entertainment writ large all morning.

Kyntar - Began to show better the second day. Being less tentative really does help. Who knew? Nothing else of note to note.

McDonald - Showed some real patience (as opposed to indecisiveness) with the puck in the offensive zone. Took part in a nice 2 on 1 break (with #37) but no one scored.

Karamnov - Showed a nice shot and some great puck control skills. Invisible otherwise.

Peckham - Some nice board work but some guy blew right by him when there is no way he should have so that worries me. Strength needs speed.

Quist - Finishing his hits and I liked that he didn't back down when challenged.

Spurgeon - Continues to impress with his speed and hustle. Has not backed down from anything. Ever. Nice.

Young - Steadiest hand out there by a mile. Has started to general the other players. Guy is oozing leadership.

Day Three

Bisaillon - Love this guys skating. Sweet check of Quist over the boards and into the bench. Some nice puck carrying out of the defensive zone.

Cogliano - Couple of assists but more importantly... I think he won a face-off. Accomplished nothing while on the PP.

Dubnyk - Great stop on Almtorp and a really nice save on a Kronschnabel tip.

Karamnov - Nice little chip-in for one goal but lost another because his wind-up was so overdone he lost the shot altogether. Best flash on the ice though - his passing and puck control skills are obvious.

McDonald - Had one REALLY nice pass out from the sideboards. Showed some hustle, some grit and some brains on the penalty kill. Had a great day.

O'Marra - Some great PK work. Pretty feisty all day.

Quist - Finishing his checks and really starting to make his presence known BUT he also seems to try to play a bit of a floater's game - waiting for loose pucks, etc. The problem is that he should be physical FIRST and then opportunistic. Not the other way around. He just doesn't appear to have the speed, puckhandling or shot for that kind of game.

Reddox - Glad he decided to join us. Scores twice and was buzzing all game.

Spurgeon - Breaks up one play and is first into the offensive zone to follow up. Other team gets it out but Spurgeon is there to break it up again; this time he carries it out himself, drives the net and is stopped by #76 (Young). GREAT sequence of play to watch.

Trukhno - Passes to Almtorp on the breakout... too bad Almtorp was surrounded by opposing players and entire cast of 'Lost' at the time. Bad. Bad. Bad.

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I would be remiss if I didn't report that one day there was a lady, just a row down from me, who:

a) had a hell of a rooster tail going on,
b) had passed the 'bad hair' gene onto her kids, and
c) needed to cut those nails of hers 'cuz they made me and the buffalo nervous

Between her and the 'Splooging Oil Zamboni Of Doom' they drove out on the ice at the half-time mark of the scrimmage I was REALLY missing my camera. Cute and fluffy bunny she ain't.

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Final notes (a summary of sorts) are posted in part 3.

Have a great evening everyone.

Marc Pouliot

August, it turns out, was an okay month to take a vacation from blogging. Maybe I should have warned ahead of time but I did not so... sorry.

That said,

I was on a vacation in Quebec City a few years ago and, while on said vacation, I discovered a few wonderful truths.

First Wonderful Truth

Quebec women are awesomely, fantastically attractive.

Second Wonderful Truth

Our latest 1st round draft pick, as at that time, would become a very good NHL player.

And so...

Marc-Antoine Pouliot

My friend David, whom I was visiting, took me to a Quebec Remparts game. Before the game he, and his friend Sabas(tien), taught me the two French words I absolutely HAD to know in order to enjoy the evening fully:

"Deux Bleu"

That taken care of we proceeded to watch the game.

The main names on the ice for the Remparts were... well... no one memorable apparently (though I think that Hennessey was on the ice that night). Playing for their opponents, the Rimouski Oceanic, was Marc-Antoine Pouliot and the high-scoring pairing of Crosby and Roussin.

I remember five things from that game:

1. The Remparts goalie played pretty well
2. Roussin wouldn't be a player
3. Crosby was farkin' spectacular and would be a superstar
4. Oceanic powerplay passed the puck around too much
5. Pouliot was the only guy on the ice who could play with Crosby

I have to assume Crosby knew it (point #5) too. Pouliot wasn't a permament fixture on his line yet EVERY time Pouliot hit the ice Crosby reacted to it positively. He would head to open spots to receive a pass he knew would come, he passed the puck to a guy who he knew could receive it and send it back and he would - without hesitation - pass the puck to a guy who he knew wouldn't flub the shot.

Crosby enjoyed playing with Pouliot. Pouliot was/is a player and Crosby knew/knows it.

Now, I could get into the stats like Lowetide does in some of his posts regarding this subject but I will not.

Marc-Antoine Pouliot will be an effective NHL player who should become the equivalent of a poor man's Ron Francis.

He has that talent.

I know.

I saw him good.

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I will be posting, soon, on the Oilers Rookie Camp up here in Yellowknife (hence 'YK'Oil). Have a great evening everyone.