Using the Cap and Budget to Advantage

(IF he had ended up on the westcoast... marketing doesn't get any easier than that)

The NYI are, supposedly, in the hunt for Kovalchuk. They also, factually, have to meet the Cap floor of (59.4 - 16.0 =) $43.4 million.

Current team salary stands at ~ $36 million and when role players are factored in that number should settle in at ~ $39 million. That leaves some $4.4 million to make up.

Why are they after Kovalchuk again?

Edmonton desperately wants to dump Souray ($5.4m Cap / $4.5m Sal), Chicago wants to dump Huet ($5.6m Cap / $5.6m Sal), Anaheim would love to dump Blake ($4.0m Cap / $3.0m Sal), etc.

The Isles are desperately in need of young, cheap, high-end talent. Kovalchuk ain't that. 1st round draft picks tend to be.

If I were Garth Snow I am spending a great deal of time talking to Anaheim and letting them know that Blake is a guy they can send my way at the cost of a draft pick(s) upgrade. Something like this:

Blake, ANA 1st round pick 2011 and ANA 4th round pick 2012
.. OR (Anaheim's choice prior to 2011 draft)..
Blake, ANA 2nd round pick 2011 and ANA 1st round pick 2012
FOR
NYI 3rd round pick 2011, NYI 5th round pick 2011

Anaheim dumps the Blake contract - allowing them to use the money for Ryan - has protection in case they fall apart in 2010/11 and the option to dump their pick in 2011 regardless (being a weaker draft class).

Islanders get a guy who won't help them much regardless - thereby not affecting their own draft pick standings - get much closer to the Cap floor (relatively painlessly) and stock up on higher quality draft picks.

The Isles don't have any, real, short-cut options on their rebuild. Using the Kovalchuk money to snag good picks and prospects from teams that need to dump salary is the best option. Full stop.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Calgary - Kudos

Calgary picked up the rights to negotiate with Bouwmeester for a 3rd round pick.

Is it a big price to pay given the odds of signing a guy committed to UFA? Yes.

Is it a big price to pay if they do sign him? No.

And for all who think the salary is an issue (I expect 6.75 and a retirement contract) I give these 3 words:

Vandermeer
Primeau
Jokinen

Vandermeer is already gone so that is $2.3 million in Cap. Primeau is another $1.4 million and Jokinen is $5.25 million. That is, in total, $8.95 million. More than enough for Bouwmeester and a couple of fillers for the other spots. If they pick up Malhotra they score this off-season big time.

Now if only they can solve the Kiprusoff problem.

When you have a chance to get a difference making talent like Bouwmeester - you do it. If Brent Sutter can turn Phaneuf around Calgary will be a scary team for years to come.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - An Off-Season Review - 2008 Edition

I remain the ultimate fanboy of Kevin Lowe's career as GM of the Edmonton Oilers.


The Good

Visnovsky for Stoll and Greene is an excellent trade to make. Greene is still years away from developing the positional game he will need to be effective while Stoll needed powerplay time to be an effective scorer. Visnovsky is coming off a poor year, after playing second fiddle to Blake and being forced to play off-wing, but he is the most talented player in this deal by a fair bit and so Lowe won the trade handily.

The only issue is that of the salary cap, given the Visnovsky and Souray contracts total some $11 million in Cap dollars the risk impacts are high if performance isn't up to snuff.

Cole has long been a player I have coveted for the Oilers. Hemsky followed by Cole followed by Pisani makes for a team that has the potential to ice three outscoring lines. That is a rare, and good, thing to have.

Without getting into the 'was-it-a-good-trade?' specifics (I will do so later in the post) the only issue I have here is this one: who centers this guy? We have a lot of young, talented C's but right now the emphasis is on 'young'.

Greene was doing nothing here. Given that a defenseman came back in the trade we aren't really losing anything here. Greene may get it together in LA and if so, good for him, but for the Oilers this should be an addition by subtraction kind of deal. Really. His numbers were that bad.


The Meh

Brule is a good kid. Bunch of NHL games under his belt he was/is a highly touted draft pick who plays with fire in his belly. What's not to like? Maybe the fact that he has a LOT of NHL games under his belt and it looks more and more like his game will have to be rebuilt from the ground up? Yeah. Maybe that.

Stoll could play the PK, man the point on the powerplay and take face-offs. He also had a year, back in 2005-06 that was going to make him a rich, rich man. His on-ice production, in Edmonton, with Souray and Visnovsky getting the lionshare of the PP toi, would not have justified those dollars. I will say it again - good trade.

Strudwick looks to be able to fill the role of 4th line winger (read: fighter) and/or #7 defenseman. While his skills aren't up to snuff, getting a 2-for-1 deal makes this a likable pick-up.


The Bad

Glencross and Torres. Either one, by themself, no big deal. Both? With no incoming, position specific replacement (a la Greene)? This is really, really bad. In combination the moves shift undue risk onto the team. Rookies, sophomores (and maybe Cole?) will have to pick up the slack and there is no proof any will be able.

Also note: both guys were proven EV performers (albeit small sample size per Glencross). Maybe if both players were sheltered I could see the wisdom in this but that isn't the case here.

Finally, both Torres (conference) and Glencross (division) went to immediate rivals ; teams that just got harder to beat. With the trade of Torres, not signing Glencross - given the make-up of the current roster - looks like a big miss for Lowe.

Reasoner. Normally, not signing a player like Reasoner isn't that big a deal; 3rd line PK and face-off specialists should be a relatively easy pick-up and ofttimes a young prospect, with veteran support on the wings, can also fill the spot, but with Stoll also gone the probability that the Oilers will not be able to fill the hole rises dramatically.

Since we know that Lowe didn't pick a veteran up, via trade or signing, we know that it is up to the kids.

On Cole-Pitkanen

It really doesn't matter how poor Pitkanen may be in the dressing room. Unless he is a outright disruption (fighting with his teammates bad), trading a defenseman who:

- has two RFA years left;
- plays 25+ minutes a night;
- should be good for 40+ pts in a bad year;
- is a decent EV player even when his head isn't in the game; and
- already has 269 games in the NHL

for a guy who is an UFA at the end of the year, and unaffordable as a long-term signing regardless (anticipated salary, imo, is $4.75 million if he has a bad year and as much as $6 million on a good year), this was a horrible trade.

Sure, our forward depth is increased - but not where we need it. As much as I like Cole, and I love his game, this was a poor trade in terms of team assets. Unless Cole signs here for a salary roughly equal to current year then everything that was gained in the Lupul trade is lost here.

On Brule-Torres

As much as I like Brule, the problem is that we already have one of these - his name is O'Marra. How many reclamation projects does one team need? Forget reclamation - how many young forwards needing to find their game do we need? Heh - how many undersized forwards do we need?

With Gagner, Pouliot, Cogliano, Brodziak, et al all looking for sheltered time finding a spot for Brule won't happen any time soon.

Why did the pursuit of Hossa entail trading Torres before Hossa was signed? This is simple - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush - stuff. Even IF Hossa is signed and Lowe is forced to dump Torres just to make Cap space, it is a far better fate than that of having no one incoming on the left wing.

Finally, if you know you aren't bringing back Reasoner then why are you trading for Brule when a good 3rd line PK center is there? Even if you have to throw in a late round draft pick bringing a guy like Malhotra back makes it a much better trade.

As far as Hossa goes... 9 years at $9 million a year? I think the world of Hossa but thank-god we missed on that one.

SUMMARY

Visnovsky and Cole are nice additions to the team. I may not like the asset management involved per the Cole trade (a conditional pick based on signing should have been included at the least) but there is no question the team added two players who bring a lot to the team.

Much like the miss on Hejda last off-season, the 'not' signing of Reasoner and Glencross makes little sense. Team depth, at those positions is weakened for no, imo, reason.

Unless, of course, you think that Lowe is, again, trying to have it both ways. Adding Visnovsky and Cole means a push for the playoffs while not signing Glencross and Reasoner means a development year.

Good luck with that.

There Is a Difference

I think Lowe may just pull it off (making the playoffs despite spending a year on development that is) but it is important to note that this review is about the moves made.

On that front this was not a good off-season. The risk factors are through the roof:

- Gagner, Nilsson, Cogliano, et al will all have to continue to improve at a warp-speed rate;
- annual LTIR candidates (Souray, Moreau, Pisani) will have to stay healthy for 70+ games;
- someone will have to pick-up the hard minutes Stoll and Reasoner took at center;
- someone else will have to slot in, sucessfully, at the LW spot;
- Garon will have to maintain his status as a top-20 starter and remain the gold standard for shoot-outs;

etc.

That is a lot to ask of a season.

To top it all off a significant asset was spent on what will be, at best, a 6th place finish. Yay.

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Heh... a full 11 days earlier than last years post... wheee! Have a great evening everyone.

A 2008 RFA Moment

As brought to you in a way that only the Vancouver Canucks can.

I think Backes is an okay player, and maybe making him an RFA offer is a workable idea, but what was Gillis thinking?

The Canucks are in for a world of hurt with this guy.

THE RULES

Look. If you are going to make an RFA offer there are several rules (admittedly mine) to follow:

1. Maximize your timing.

This means you don't make the offer when the other team:

.a. is flush with cash (the most important factor);
.b. has lots of time to think about it;
.c. is already committed to that player in their roster build

2. Maximize your opponents opportunity to make a mistake.

This means you offer an amount that minimizes your loss while maximizing their requirement to agonize over the decision. Please read my post on the Penner signing - for some it will be new and for others it will be a refresher.

This also involves waiting for the opposing team to pass certain deadlines... like the filing for arbitration deadline lets say. Just to say of course.

3. Maximize the value of your decision.

If the player you are targeting is a player you would trade 'x' draft picks for then your offer should be as close to that, in terms of RFA compensation, as you can get without crossing into a higher cost bracket.

If the player you are targeting is on a team that is vulnerable (see also #1 above) then pitch an underpriced bid, but don't kid yourself, once you do that you aren't looking to make an acquisition - you are looking to cause pain.

The difference in those two positions is important.

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NOT GOOD

Gillis broke all the rules. And not in the good way.

It was an ill-timed offer with just enough weight to piss off the target yet not enough to make them (St. Louis) think seriously about it. St. Louis was never put in a position to make a bad decision and so they didn't.

Finally, because the deal doesn't make sense it comes off as being opportunistic, or worse yet - a rookie mistake - rather than a business deal and leaves Gillis in the unenviable position of being a GM fewer GM's now think they can trust to do business with.

A lot of GM's won't care. Some will. That is bad.

If Gillis had been smart about it he would have let Backes know he was interested and then waited until St. Louis had started extending its bank account. Then, if St. Louis was vulnerable, make the 2.5 offer. Depending on how vulnerable they are you just may get your guy.

If serious about Backes as a player however, then offer $2.80 and go for 4 or 5 years. At this price point St. Louis has to decide if a 1st and a 3rd is worth it. Where a 2nd round pick isn't even worth thinking about a 1st rounder automatically garners attention.

Either way - Gillis wins. St. Louis is now a) paying a lot for a guy they can barely afford to pay the cash to now or b) Gillis gets his guy.

Here's the thing... is Backes even that good? Wth?

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SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA

Here is a decent RFA bid that teams just missed out on:

Riley Cote

You may think I am crazy but Cote is a decent fighter and lest no one was looking Philly just signed him for 3 years at 550k a year. Next time you hear of a team that says it needs a fighter... there was one there for the asking.

Philly is in tight and would have had to look for LTIR relief (Hatcher) or trade. An offer of 850k a year to Cote, and thus avoiding compensatory draft picks, would have been enough to make them sweat, blink or both.

Here is a better RFA bid that teams are missing out on:

Boyd Gordon

The guy has great underlying numbers and it shouldn't be a secret that Washington started to play better when he came back from injury (wasn't all Huet). Per Desjardins, the 06-07 numbers are great and 07-08 dipped, a bit, due to injury.

Washington will be tight to the Cap this year and would have to decide to match on Gordon, and so pass on UFA's, or use his dollars to fill roster spots. Gordon is worth the money and worth the draft picks ; an offer of ~ $3.00 a year would be strategic and smart.

Here are two more RFA's that might be cheap, worthwhile, signings:

Patrick Thoreson and Jaroslav Halak

If you are a GM who absolutely knows he/she needs a good 4th line player who can pick up 3rd line minutes then what is not to like about a guy like Thoreson?

Halak is inching towards 'elite back-up' status, if you need goaltending why would you ever let Montreal have him for cheap? Heck - as a competitor - why?

Make Philly and Montreal pay. And make yourself stronger at the same time.

Finally, I also really like Freddy Sjostrom, Nigel Dawes and Danny Fritsche. The latter two have great upside and Sjostrom is a decent steady eddie.

Come to think about it - the Rangers are ripe for plundering given their closeness to the Cap.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL UFA Season - 2008 - First Look

PunjabiOil has been on top of the UFA signing list for a while now. I usually let this go for quite a while yet but given the stuff I have been reading on some fanboards I figured it was time I did an initial weigh in.

You may notice that this post is FAR less in-depth than the posts I made last year on the same subject. Yes, that was deliberate. When I took a look at what was available this year it just wasn't that special. Not a lot of value out there this year imo.

Qualifier(s)

I will only list those players that I think are worth signing based on a combination of price and performance or price and upside.

I will exercise a slight Edmonton bias (Glencross) but the players listed are those I would recommend to any team.

If I have not listed a player it is because I think they are more trouble than they worth (Avery), more expensive that I can justify even though I like them otherwise (Demitra) or over-rated in my opinion (Campbell).

The Ratings

'*' = from '*' (take a flyer) to '*****' (well worth a contract)
'$' = from '$' (relatively cheap) to '$$$$$' (gonna hurt)
'?' = from '?' (death and taxes) to '?????' (like the weather)

The Rankings (in order)

F - Glencross .. (EDM) .. ***** .. $ ...... ???
D - Hejda ...... (CBJ) .. ***** .. $$$ .... ?
D - Hainsey .... (CBJ) .. ***** .. $$$$ ... ?
L - Williams ... (CHI) .. ***** .. $$$ .... ??
D - Salvador ... (NJD) .. **** ... $$$$ ... ??
D - Malik ...... (NYR) .. *** .... $$$ .... ?
D - Roszival ... (NYR) .. *** .... $$$$ ... ?
D - Commodore .. (OTT) .. *** .... $$$$ ... ?
L - Malone ..... (PIT) .. *** .... $$$$ ... ????
D - Modry ...... (PHI) .. ** ..... $$ ..... ?
L - Dupuis ..... (PIT) .. ** ..... $$$ .... ???
D - Janik ...... (TBL) .. ** ..... $ ...... ?????
D - Sauer ...... (COL) .. ** ..... $$$ .... ???
D - Weaver ..... (VAN) .. * ...... $ ...... ?????
L - Hagman ..... (DAL) .. * ...... $ ...... ??

Malone is the only player on my list who is both a high-risk and (I anticipate) an expensive signing. This breaks my own risk management rules and for that I am sorry. The gamble here is that he, as a long-time veteran, can now play to his potential. Sometimes you have to take a chance.

Unless his price has gone over the moon, Lowe should sign Glencross to a nice 4 year deal asap.

Final Notes

So if the players listed above are all gone there ARE still players a team should look to sign BUT they should be looked at as either:

- Rentals, or
- Cornerstones

Rentals (Nagy) are guys you sign to one year deals to fill a spot and both you and they know they are probably gone at the trade deadline if the team is not solidly in the play-off race.

Cornerstones (Campbell will want this kind of cash) are guys you sign to expensive long-term deals knowing that you might be overpaying them but they should be 50/50 to cover the bet.

Since cornerstone players are pretty rare this coming off-season it means everyone else is a rental.

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Have a great evening everyone.

Oilers - An Off-Season Review - 2007 Edition

Not a great off-season for Lowe. I cannot say it more clearly.

The Good

Garon was a great signing by Lowe. He had injury issues last year but in the games he did play his Sv% was a respectable .907%. He will provide excellent back-up goaltending for Roloson and can step into the #1 role if Roloson falters.

Pitkanen will always be an exceptionally talented defenseman. Getting the best player in a trade usually means your team won the trade and Lowe won this trade. The only problem here is that Pitkanen is even more Hemsky than Hemsky is.**

** With Hemsky we only wonder if he will ever take the next step up, Pitkanen is fully capable of taking a step back - that would make him a very expensive mistake given his numbers justify a $4.5 mill+ contract. For those kind of dollars you want a guy who can do more than score.

The Meh

Tarnstrom is a guy I have ALWAYS supported. Normally I would consider this a great move. Problem is that Lowe also added Souray and we already have Stoll - that makes three players who rely on PP results, generated from the point, for their scoring. And where does Pitkanen fit in there?

The rest of the Pitkanen deal (as a group):

-- Sanderson is deadweight who will probably last the year with us. Lowe MIGHT be able to dump him (deadline) for a late pick but miracles are not for us.

-- Lupul wasn't a good fit here. The Oilers just don't have a line where they can hide him. He might do okay in Philly given that they have more centers capable of babysitting him.

-- Smith is a HUGE loss for the Oilers. One of the few players on the team who is capable of making any player he plays with better.

I like Pitkanen enough that I can avoid giving this deal a thumbs down but mark my words - Smith was team super-glue and I am legitimately scared for this team without him back there. To be frank, if Lowe had had the option to send Greene or Grebeshkov instead, it would have been a better move (even if we then had to throw in the draft pick).

The Bad

Penner should settle in as a decent #2 winger for the Oilers. Problem is that the Lowe picked him up at a much higher price than he should have. The team will easily be one of the worst in the league and top-5 picks in deep drafts are almost a gimme when it comes to drafting IMPACT players. This one hurts.

Souray is the kind of defenseman who should be playing on the 3rd pair at Even Strength, the 1st pair on the power play and the 2nd pair on the penalty kill. In those spots he should be a difference maker. The problem is that, at that pay ($5.4 mill/yr and 3yrs NMC) he:

a. will not be playing a lesser role (at EV) that maximizes his skill set, and he

b. takes us right to the Cap limit (crippling the teams ability to make trades), and he

c. has to perform at an elite level just to justify the dollars, and Cap space - the contract is essentially unmovable.

ALSO

e. there is no proof Souray is a driver of PP results (the stats only show that he can score), and

f. the team already had a PP pointman with a big shot in Stoll, and

g. the team had already added Tarnstrom, and

h. the addition of Souray just further unbalanced the roster (too few players good at EV).

All in all - a complete disaster in the making. Of all the bullets posted it is 'c' that matters - at 5.4 mill /yr the Oilers can't afford to have Souray perform at anything less than an elite level. There is no room for margin in this contract.

Hejda, on the other hand, is the sort of defenseman you only dream of (as a GM). Last half of the year he played like a legit #3 guy. Given that he is a VETERAN player from the Euro leagues I find it hard to assume that his level of performance could/would backslide much. Absolutely collosal blunder by Lowe.

Johnson and Dvorak are the kind of forwards a team needs to sign during rebuild years. They provide veteran play on the 3rd and 4th lines and can shelter rookies as they develop and learn the game. If the team is lucky they can outperform their opposite lines and provide a boost to the entire team in doing so. Too bad Lowe didn't sign ANY of those kinds of players.

SUMMARY

The signing of Garon makes sense for any team at any time. Good back-up goaltending, signed for cheap, is... just... well... it's every good thing. Kudo's to Lowe.

The 'not' signing of Hejda makes no sense at any time for any team. Cheap, reliable, young. It doesn't get any better than that. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

After that, the problem is that Lowe's moves, as a whole, don't make sense. Edmonton is NOT a contender. Contending teams come in several flavors and Edmonton is none of those. Hence, this is a rebuild year. Given that then:

-- Pitkanen is a great player to trade for. Young, can produce, could be dominant, didn't give up too much for him. Losing Smith hurts but for a rebuild this is as good as it gets.

-- Tarnstrom was an excellent signing. Short-term deal, veteran player, deadline trade-bait all the way. Unfortunately, this is the last move Lowe made that makes sense.

-- Penner was a horrible signing to make. By all means, PUSH Anaheim on the dollars, but giving up a 1st, in a draft like the 2008 will be, given how bad the team is, insane.

-- Souray is not a player that a rebuilding team signs to a long-term deal with a NMC. Overpay for one or two years and trade at the first deadline the first chance you get. Or don't sign at all.

One might think that three positives (Garon, Pitkanen, Tarnstrom) and three negatives (Hejda, Penner, Souray) makes for neutral - the team is no worse and no better. Problems are that neutral still means a REALLY bad team, the team is in a long-term rebuild cycle hindered by medium-term contracts and there is no long-term upside (the 1st rnd pick).

Not a great off-season for the Oilers at all. A tremendous number of things will have to break in our favor just to ensure we aren't giving Anaheim a lotto pick. Ouch.

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Have a great evening everyone.

The Penner Offer

I have a great many concerns about the Penner offer, most of them having been covered by Lowetide (who is not taking this one well) on his blog. mc79hockey, PunjabiOil, IOF, BDHS and CiO also chime in (links to the right).

I am a little more ambivalent on it. Penner does have potential and does seem a natural fit for a passer like Hemsky. He isn't as good as Torres is defensively BUT he hasn't played as many games either. It is easy to point at Penner's age but his NHL hockey age is still just one.

The Penner offer is fraught with peril imo but the pay-off could be astounding. My hope is that he either

a) hits expectations or
b) is unloaded in a timely fashion should he development stall.

A big, BIG guy who is a force at the net or on the boards and who is a shooter first, last and always

vs.

A plodder who glomed off of a true 1st line talent in Getzlaf and PP pointmen like Neidermayer and Pronger

Oh just WHAT will he be when he grows up?

One thing though. And I will not say it again. Anyone who thinks this was just a grand plan by Lowe to force Burke's hand and cause Anaheim budget and Cap troubles isn't being rational.

To be more blunt about it: shut the f%^k up.

Anaheim

A 1st / 2nd / 3rd offer sheet has a pay range of $3,515,645 to $4,687,527.

Anaheim currently sits at $48.80 million in committed Cap salary with 21 players on the payroll. That is 12 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies. Selanne and Penner are not included in those numbers but Ryan is.

With the Cap at $50.3 million a quick look at the Ducks roster reveals that the team has the following flex:

~ 0.60 in easy dump (Bryzgalov)*
~ 0.60 in easy wire (May or Parros)
~ 6.75 in retirement limbo (Neidermayer)**

* Hillier has a big signing bonus so Burke would have to send him down and get a 600k man to play back-up. ** Selanne isn't counted in the $48.80 so I don't count him in the above.

Other than Neidermayer's contract Anaheim doesn't have a lot of flex to play with. Most of their players are priced appropriately to, or even outperforming, their contracts. Many are critical to team success and a few would be hard to trade regardless (Bertuzzi).

The Math

500k represents ~ 1% of the Cap. It also represents:

~ 33% of Anaheim's immediately available Cap space, and
~ 20% of Anaheim's easy flex

Ergo 500k, to the Ducks, is a LOT of money. Neidermayer being the wildcard.

Ryan's contract will cost the team ~ $2.2 million in Cap.

Kevin Lowe

So we know two things:

1. Lowe wants to sign Penner and he thinks he is worth $4.3 mill /yr,
2. Lowe was bidding against himself.

Look at the numbers again. No way was Penner going to get any real money out of Anaheim. They couldn't afford it. Burke is practically banking on Neidermayer retiring - he can't afford to keep the team together otherwise.

Look at the numbers again. Lowe had a $1.15 million spread to work with and he went 800k above the minimum - a minimum that Penner would not have seen from Burke. At least not this year. Lowe was, to say it again, bidding against himself.

Look at the numbers again. If Lowe had wanted to whip out his Sword of Damocles and begin busting Burke with it his best bet would have been to get Penner to sign at $3.8 million. At 3.8 Burke can keep Ryan in the minors and work flex to keep Penner.

i.e. At $3.8 Lowe makes Burke sweat as the 'right' decision isn't also the obvious one.

At $4.3 Penner makes more than Hemsky. I will leave that right there. On a secondary point, it is also more than Anaheim can afford sans knowledge of Neidermayer's plans. Look for Burke, and quite rightly so, to not match the offer.

Best of All Worlds and Finale

The best contract for Penner would have been at the top-end of the next band down ($2,343,764 - $3,515,645 for a 1st and 3rd round pick). The contract would have been heavily front-loaded and looked like this:

6.5 / 3.5 / 2.5 / 2.0 / 3.0

At $3.5 million it is still a tough pill for Burke to swallow as Getzlaf and Perry are due next year and Cap space will be at a premium for this team for the next few years.

Meanwhile Lowe keeps the 2nd round pick and protects himself in the last 3 years of the deal (as Penner would be easy to unload to a small budget team that has the Cap room but not the money).

A win-win deal for Lowe all-around.

At $4.3 million however... the risk is ALL on Lowe. And that is the problem

This contract offer does not represent Lowe at his finest. He paid high for a player who would have been lucky to break $5 million as an UFA and committed long to a guy with one season played and no obvious superstar skill sets.

In his last RFA season Penner would have been lucky to get $2.0 million out of Burke on a one-year deal and I can't see Burke breaking either the $4 million or the 3 year barrier on a longer term deal. Burke holds onto his wallet hard.

Much like the Souray signing Lowe failed to manage his risk. Penner has to be the real deal for this contract to represent value. He has to. Otherwise Lowe:

-- failed to get a good, risk managed, contract, and
-- failed to impair Anaheim's ability to manage its Cap, and
-- failed to hurt Anaheim by taking a key player, and
-- failed to keep a good draft pick in a deep draft, and
-- succeeded in overpaying a mediocre hockey player

wheeeee....

Here's hoping Burke matches the offer or that Penner really is the next Bertuzzi. Otherwise we's in trouble.

Heh. I started this post as kind-of ambivalent about it all... oh well... at the least I can appreciate watching Lowe play the role of RFA spoiler.

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Have a great evening everyone.

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Three - Centers) - A

The third in a series of posts on the UFA market that will hit this coming off-season. The first post was all about goalie's and the second was all about defensemen. My latest update to those posts is here.

Convential wisdom has it that building a team starts from the net out. All else being equal it is better to have a good goalie than it is to have a good defensemen than it is to have a good center than it is to have a good winger. Funny then that marquee centers have traditionally received more pay and press than most goalie's or defensemen.

Easy call really. The top-scorer on a team is almost always a forward and the center on a line tends to direct the play. Goalie's and defensemen might have a greater impact on wins and losses but for the vast majority of fans out there it is the center who sells the tickets.

Centermen

Age .. .$$ .. avg toi .. pp .. sh/gm

32 .. 5.75 .. 18.17 .. 4.07 .. _.10 .. Peter Forsberg
29 .. 3.08 .. 18.46 .. 4.25 .. 2.56 .. Chris Drury
29 .. 2.13 .. 20.59 .. 5.13 .. 3.02 .. Michal Handzus
28 .. 5.00 .. 19.18 .. 4.45 .. _.18 .. Daniel Briere
26 .. 5.00 .. 18.55 .. 4.28 .. _.02 .. Scott Gomez
32 .. 7.42 .. 17.04 .. 3.33 .. _.24 .. Alexei Yashin

36 .. 0.80 .. 12.20 .. 1.56 .. 1.34 .. Trevor Linden
34 .. 1.98 .. 17.59 .. 3.15 .. 2.08 .. Bryan Smolinski
33 .. 1.63 .. 19.07 .. 3.09 .. 3.06 .. Josef Stumpel
31 .. 1.48 .. 17.13 .. 2.27 .. 2.35 .. Todd White
31 .. 0.87 .. 16.24 .. 2.06 .. 1.24 .. Viktor Kozlov
28 .. 1.30 .. 16.14 .. 2.34 .. 1.58 .. Eric Belanger

35 .. 3.80 .. 16.49 .. 3.34 .. _.06 .. Robert Lang
33 .. 2.50 .. 14.39 .. 3.34 .. _.02 .. Eric Lindros
32 .. 0.50 .. 12.05 .. 2.17 .. _.14 .. Glen Metropolit
30 .. 0.60 .. 14.08 .. 1.39 .. _.24 .. Randy Robitaille
29 .. 2.90 .. 16.39 .. 4.37 .. _.04 .. Petr Sykora
28 .. 2.85 .. 12.30 .. 1.47 .. _.31 .. Mike York

36 .. 1.44 .. 14.53 .. _.10 .. 2.05 .. Wes Walz
32 .. 2.50 .. 17.24 .. _.24 .. 4.17 .. Michael Peca
31 .. 0.73 .. 10.55 .. _.24 .. 1.49 .. Kevyn Adams
31 .. 0.53 .. 12.32 .. _.08 .. 3.14 .. Scott Nichol
30 .. 2.39 .. 15.52 .. _.28 .. 2.57 .. Radek Bonk
30 .. 1.13 .. 13.32 .. _.51 .. 2.29 .. Wayne Primeau
30 .. 0.95 .. __.__ .. _.__ .. _.__ .. Jason Wiemer (inj.)

25 .. 3.00 .. 15.14 .. 3.22 .. _.19 .. Mike Comrie
25 .. 0.90 .. 12.12 .. _.08 .. 1.19 .. Patrick Stefan
25 .. 1.15 .. 13.23 .. _.53 .. _.31 .. Josef Vasicek

37 .. 0.45 .. _8.17 .. _.04 .. 1.51 .. Jim Dowd
36 .. 1.50 .. 13.53 .. 2.01 .. 1.09 .. Jeremy Roenick
35 .. 0.70 .. 15.33 .. 3.15 .. _.24 .. Yanic Perreault
35 .. 0.50 .. _8.53 .. _._5 .. 2.59 .. Travis Green
34 .. 1.52 .. _9.53 .. _.20 .. 1.38 .. Mike Ricci

29 .. 0.50 .. _9.30 .. _.12 .. _.02 .. Wyatt Smith
29 .. 0.45 .. _9.27 .. _.07 .. _.01 .. Eric Rasmussen
29 .. 0.45 .. _9.46 .. _.15 .. 1.06 .. Byron Ritchie
29 .. 0.45 .. 10.46 .. 1.55 .. _.__ .. Mark Hartigan
28 .. 0.70 .. 10.24 .. _.51 .. _.41 .. Mark Smith
28 .. 0.48 .. 12.55 .. 3.21 .. _.02 .. Jeff Hamilton
27 .. 0.63 .. 13.46 .. _.51 .. 2.56 .. Mikael Holmqvist
27 .. 0.75 .. 13.37 .. 1.06 .. _.48 .. Brett MacLean
27 .. 0.68 .. _7.33 .. _.04 .. _.02 .. Adam Mair
27 .. 0.45 .. 13.40 .. 1.21 .. 1.57 .. Toby Peterson
27 .. 0.45 .. _7.22 .. _.16 .. _.02 .. Tommi Santala

Group A: the 'name' players

This is an interesting category. Forsberg and Handzus have health issues, Briere and Gomez are offensive dynamo's who don't play much defense and Yashin will put up the points without a care in world (which IS the problem). Drury lacks the big numbers but is the better all-around player.

If Forsberg plays it will be in Philly or Colorado so look for him to be in Philly at $4.8 mill /yr (one year). Briere and Gomez are proven point producers and could end up anywhere so look for them to sign 4 or 5 yr deals in the $6.5 mill /yr range.

Handzus will cash in on his 'potential' (big guy who can play) yet again and will garner a $4.0 mill /yr payday while Yashin will get signed late August by some team that needs some offense ($3.5 mill /yr for one year).

The wildcard is Drury. Great leadership and 'clutch-player' rep will get him a payday a la Briere and Gomez but the question becomes - where? I will, actually, be disappointed if San Jose doesn't make a play for him. Signing Drury and trading Marleau for the pieces they need is the smart move.

Group B: the 'all-around good guys' group

Not the 1st-line ES, PP of PK but they can do it all and are often first over the boards for the 2nd-line PP or PK teams. It may be because they really are good at everything (a guy like Linden has years of veteran savvy to fall back on) or it may be because the team is undermanned (Stumpel is THAT good on the PK?) so do your research and make your call accordingly.

Linden will retire in Vancouver so look for a retirement contract for him (2 yrs at < $1 mill /yr). Smolinski is a guy who is good enough to be wanted by teams but not so good that they keep him, look for him to sign for a couple of years at $2 to 2.5 mill /yr. Florida likes Stumpel and Stumpel likes Florida; he'll get 3 years at $1.8 - 2.2 mill /yr.

After years of working his tail off White will finally get land a paycheque that fits his tweener status (better than 3rd line but not quite 2nd line); he'll want 3 or 4 years at $1.8 mill /yr or 2 years at $2 mill /yr. Belanger's numbers improved in Atlanta so he may get a slight bump into the $1.5 mill /yr range (expect a 2 year deal).

Kozlov is the wildcard of the group. Is he finally putting it all together? He had a good year last year and that may just land him a bigger contract. Look for a 3 year deal in $1.2 to 1.5 mill /yr range. I think he would like to go to a team that wants him - I do not know if that is New York.

Group C: the 'friends of the power-play' group

Players who, for better or for worse, aren't known for how they play defense. They tend to get lots of power-play time and some of them even earn it. The wildcard in the group is Lindros. His injury history is scary and he has changed his play because of it BUT he can still play the game pretty well. He will sign where he can, probably short-term, and get some $2 mill /yr for his troubles.

Lang and Sykora are more consistent than most but neither one is a 'core' kind of guy. I expect both to take pay-cuts. Sykora will probably stay in Edmonton the next 2 years for $2.8 mill /yr while Lang will get a chance to see more of the USA; also a 2 year deal and this one pegged at $2.5 to $3.25 mill /yr.

Metropolit, Robitaille and York represent the bottom end of this group. They will be paid accordingly. The first two will sign anywhere that needs a center who can work a 2nd power-play unit and they will be happy to make 700k to 800k a year doing it. York, after a dismal season is kind of in the same boat. His good years in Edmonton will get him a 2 year deal somewhere making $1.2 - 1.6 mill /yr.

Group D: the 'what's a power-play?' group

Players who, for better or worse, never see PP time because they are too busy being relied upon to play well defensively or because they wouldn't be any good on the PP regardless and SOMEONE has to play 2nd unit minutes on the PK. If Wiemer can ever play again (I never looked it up) he will get short-term 'see-if-he-can-play-again' deal for 550 - 700k /yr.

Peca is the big name and if healthy he is a legit difference maker. His big payday days are long gone but expect the Leafs or Islanders to give him a multi-year deal that averages $2.2 mill /yr or so. Walz is the elder statesman of the group and he will go to a team that needs a veteran like him who can play. Expect a 2 year retirement deal at $1.2 mill /yr or so.

Bonk has turned himself into a legit, top-end, defensive forward. I see him taking a pay-cut but it shouldn't be much of one - he'll go to anyone who pays him and I expect it will be 3 years at $2.2 mill /yr. Primeau is the very definition of generic 3rd line defensive forward. Given the lack of quality depth in the NHL a 2 year deal awaits him, somewhere, for $1.2 mill /yr.

Nichol and Adams are the guys who are kicking around because they can play better than the current rookie de jour and thus will hurt the team less in tight games. Look for Nichol to get a slight bump in pay to 650k /yr while Adams will take a slight cut in pay to 650k /yr. Both players will sign short term deals.

Group E: the 'wanna-be' players

A small group of players who have the talent to make some noise, and are still young enough to do so, BUT don't have the 'it' that it takes to get them over the hump. Comrie had a good play-offs with Ottawa and he will probably get the biggest paycheque of the bunch - just smaller than before. 3 year deal, somewhere that needs an offense first-last-always forward, for $2.5 mill /yr.

Stefan and Vasicek were both, once, highly touted prospects. Not great years for them however. Vasicek will get roughly $1 mill /yr for a couple of years from someone who wants to take a chance while Stefan may be re-inventing himself into a defensively sound forward. Take a couple more years for him to do that so expect another couple of 800 - 900k paydays for him this round.

Funny thing about Vasicek... not a good year in Carolina but dig a little deeper and you find out the guy played some very tough competition through-out the year. One of the best 'Quality of competition' stats in the NHL last year (courtesy of Desjardins). Interesting.

Group F: the 'it's a good-life' players

The guys are hanging on to their jobs every game of every year. I won't go into detail on most of these as it is fairly clear that the majority of them will be lucky to get 2 year contracts that aren't two-way deals. The best of them will get 650 - 750k contracts and the average will probably be in the 500k range.

Of the guys mentioned above, Peterson and (M) Smith may have solidified a reputation for being dependable utility forwards while Hamilton, MacLean and Hartignan may have given themselves a future as 2nd line PP fill-ins. Holmqvist and Ritchie make up the PK utility set of this this group. Rasmussen and Mair haven't done themselves any favors and (W) Smith and Santala are just fill-ins.

With this group of forwards it is always hard to say as to what will really happen. Why they even get playing at all can often be up for debate (some are only injury fill-ins, etc). The only thing that isn't debateable is that they won't make much more than the minimum and that even the smallest NHL paycheque is still a pretty good paycheque to have.

Group G: the 'you still play?' players

Centers tend to be under a LOT of pressure to perform in the NHL. They can get pushed out of their roster spot very quickly. Excepting Perreault, all the players in this group are guys who have fallen off the map (sts) in regards to their level of play and they should probably retire soon or sooner. None of them will get a contract longer than 2 years.

Perreault gets by on superior face-off skills and some decent PP work. He will find a job somewhere and make $1.2 mill /yr or so doing it. Ricci, Green and Dowd may get work as dependable 4th-line PK vets while Roenick never learned how to adjust his game to match his roster spot (not specialized enough in any one area of the game) and so he may be waiting on a new contract for quite a while. Expect most of the signings to be at or near the minimum.

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Next part of this post follows directly below.

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Three - Centers) - B

Part 'B' of the third in a series of posts on the UFA market that will hit this coming off-season. Part 'A' is directly above this one.

Who To Target?

For my money the best players to target are (from each group):

Drury

Belanger

Smolinski

White

Sykora

Lang

Bonk

Walz

Peterson / Ritchie

For less money than Briere or Gomez might make, Drury will provide more versatile and dependable play AND he can play the tough minutes. A team could do worse than making Drury one of the key building blocks of their forward group and a long-term deal on $6 mill/yr would be money expensively, but well, spent. Drury is also good as a 'put-us-over-the-top' guy on a short-term contract.

I only like Gomez and Briere on long, long term deals where they can become the identity of the team and the team can be built around them. I think Briere will actually stay in Buffalo but in any case both figure to be very expensive signings. I don't like them for the Oilers at all.

Smolinski and White are veteran guys who can anchor the 3rd line or cover the 2nd line and as such, if a team needs help in that area they would be great signings - short or long-term. I do think that they would both prefer longer-term deals in the 3 -4 year range at $2 mill /yr or so. Those would be good deals.

Belanger is a guy I like however. Given that quality 3rd line guys make anywhere from $1.5 to 2.5 mill /yr regardless, the smart GM will sign this guy to a long-term deal (5 years+) that tops out at $2 million but averages $1.6 mill /yr. Quality 3rd line cornerstone at an affordable price and inflation protected out the wazoo - what's not to like?

Sykora and Lang are both good pick-ups for a team that needs offensive depth for now and is willing to trade them at the deadline if the play-offs are out of sight for a while. Short-term deals of a single year is preferable - even if a premium has to be paid. I pegged their prices above.

Bonk has transformed himself into a valuable player. He is generally underappreciated and as a defensive minded guy he is undervalued. Belanger is the lesser version of Bonk imo. The smart GM knows what Bonk offers and gets him to sign a long-term deal in the $2 mill /yr range. Barring personality issues this is the kind of guy who can become a 'core' player on a good team.

Walz is a good, short-term, solution to any team needing veteran defensive depth and a leadership boost. Much like Lang/Sykora however his best use is as trade bait at the deadline. Short-term deal for few bucks means a nice draft pick later.

Peterson and Ritchie are great for any team that needs a veteran to baby-sit some rookies on the 4th-line and as such they should get picked up by some enterprising GM. I like them because they should stay at or near the minimum and out-perform their price at that level. 500k /yr for a couple of years.

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So those are the centers. Were I Lowe and I was going to play it conservatively ('make-the-play-offs') I make my plays for:

-- Gomez, Briere or White.

Seriously. this team is so far away that only the offense of the big boys may get them a shot at the play-offs. White is a 'chance' pick in that he might help Horcoff and Stoll enough that the three of them carry the team in.

If I treat my team as a rebuild I look at:

-- Peterson, Bonk, Lang, Sykora and Belanger.

Peterson because he plays utility forward on the bottom two lines for me, Bonk because eventually Horcoff/Stoll may move on or be traded, Sykora nd Lang because I want the prospects/draft picks that come with trading them later and Belanger because I want to risk a little to maybe gain a lot.

Not a lot of solutions for the Oilers from the UFA centers available this off-season.

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Have a great evening everyone.

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Goalie and Defensemen Update)

This is my fourth post on the subject of the upcoming 2006/07 UFA (probable) lists. The others are here:

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part One - Goalie's)
2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Goalie Update)
2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Two - Defensemen) - A
2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Two - Defensemen) - B

This post is just an update on the status of the Goalie and Defensemen lists.

The Goalie's

Giguere
Garon / Aebischer / Weekes / Thibault / Boucher /Esche
Markkanen / Aubin / Sabourin / Dunham / McLennan / Conklin
Hasek / Belfour / Burke / Joseph

Of the guys I liked:

-- Giguere just won the Stanley Cup

-- Backstrom stayed with Minnesota for 2 yrs at $3.10 mill /yr and Smith stayed with Dallas for 2 yrs at $0.95 mill /yr.

That leaves Giguere and Garon as the two decent guys left out of the UFA pool of goalies. Pickings are slim. Look for Giguere to get $6.75 yr with Anaheim (Neidermayer Cap) and for Garon to be the steal of the off-season given he will be so cheap.

The Defensemen

Too many to list again so I will stick with those who have signed since I first posted on it:

-- Markov stayed with Montreal for 4 yrs at $5.75 mill /yr.
-- Wesley stayed with Carolina for 1 yr at $1.40 mill.

All that does is take the biggest name off the list (Markov) and indicate that Carolina will allow Tanabe to go UFA.

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Where the Goalie listing has, pretty much, shrunk to its July 1st probable the D-men listing still has a long ways to go. THAT flurry of signings, along with those of the forwards, will probably happen after the draft.

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Have a great evening everyone.

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Two - Defensemen) - A

Part 'A' of the second in a series of posts on the UFA market that will hit this coming off-season. The first post, goalie's, is here.

Foreword (no pun intended): defensemen take a lot longer to develop to full potential than any other position in the game (imo). I believe it is because experience plays such an important role in the effectiveness of said players.

Knowing how to angle players to the outside - regardless of the speed and/or strength of that forward, knowing when to pokecheck vs. actually stepping up and intercepting the pass - exactly because you know the speed and/or strength of the incoming forward, etc. ALL of those traits have to be, generally, relearned by defensemen at every level at which they play simply because the next level of opposition is faster, better, stronger than that before it. Watching a guy like Sakic destroy some young d-man by pulling him out of position and then dumping the pass is like watching a training video in progress - funny part is that the d-man in question will probably be watching the same training video the next day.

It is one of the reasons why prices for defensemen are so high. There really aren't THAT many who are THAT good at it. Most teams only have one or two key cogs in their system and if that guy goes down the ripple effect can destroy an entire season (witness: Frantisek Kaberle).

Defensemen

Age .. .$$ .. avg toi .. pp .. sh/gm

32 .. 4.20 .. 25.45 .. 4.50 .. 1.19 .. Brian Rafalski
32 .. 3.50 .. 25.07 .. 4.56 .. 2.53 .. Roman Hamrlik
31 .. 2.38 .. 22.04 .. 4.54 .. 3.16 .. Kimmo Timonen
29 .. 2.75 .. 25.23 .. 4.28 .. 4.36 .. Tom Poti
29 .. 2.43 .. 23.05 .. 4.51 .. 3.03 .. Sheldon Souray
27 .. 2.20 .. 22.54 .. 1.34 .. 3.18 .. Scott Hannan
27 .. 2.00 .. 24.13 .. 4.24 .. 3.33 .. Andrei Markov
26 .. 2.40 .. 22.58 .. 2.06 .. 3.55 .. Brad Stuart

35 .. 1.90 .. 18.12 .. 1.50 .. 1.50 .. Jaroslav Modry
29 .. 2.50 .. 18.34 .. _.07 .. 2.55 .. Danny Markov
29 .. 1.63 .. 22.41 .. 3.17 .. 3.50 .. Daniel Tjarnqvist
29 .. 1.00 .. 20.07 .. _.19 .. 2.57 .. Brad Lukowich
27 .. 1.90 .. 18.07 .. _.12 .. 3.13 .. Cory Sarich
26 .. 1.63 .. 20.19 .. _.42 .. 2.34 .. Martin Skoula
26 .. 1.55 .. 17.37 .. _.05 .. 2.34 .. Vitaly Vishnevski

37 .. 3.30 .. 23.21 .. 5.24 .. 1.42 .. Mathieu Schneider
37 .. 2.60 .. 21.03 .. 2.43 .. 3.27 .. Teppo Numminen
35 .. 3.00 .. 19.22 .. 2.58 .. 2.16 .. Patrice Brisebois
35 .. 0.70 .. 16.50 .. 2.43 .. 1.18 .. Jamie Heward
33 .. 2.75 .. 18.51 .. 2.21 .. 2.40 .. Sandis Ozolinsh
29 .. 2.40 .. 20.16 .. 3.20 .. 2.12 .. Brent Sopel
29 .. 2.50 .. 18.57 .. 3.58 .. _.46 .. Bryan Berard
28 .. 0.80 .. 13.41 .. 1.59 .. _.05 .. Ric Jackman
27 .. 0.60 .. 15.05 .. 3.21 .. _.07 .. Tom Preissing
26 .. 0.45 .. 17.08 .. 4.11 .. _.12 .. Greg Zanon
25 .. 0.90 .. 17.26 .. 3.03 .. 1.23 .. David Tanabe

31 .. 0.53 .. 14.00 .. _.19 .. 2.03 .. Rory Fitzpatrick
31 .. 0.53 .. 14.11 .. _.47 .. _.44 .. Jamie Rivers
30 .. 0.63 .. 15.38 .. _.02 .. 3.00 .. Nolan Pratt
30 .. 0.60 .. 15.36 .. _.20 .. 1.37 .. Shane Hnidy
29 .. 0.50 .. _9.48 .. _.55 .. _.15 .. Joel Kwiatkowski
29 .. 0.45 .. _8.38 .. _.__ .. 2.50 .. Alex Brooks
28 .. 0.94 .. 20.23 .. _.28 .. 3.19 .. Jan Hejda
28 .. 0.50 .. 14.30 .. _.12 .. 2.13 .. Mike Weaver
27 .. 0.75 .. 18.51 .. _.36 .. 3.41 .. Josef Melichar
27 .. 0.55 .. 18.58 .. _.35 .. 3.45 .. Rob Scuderi
27 .. 0.50 .. 12.11 .. _.01 .. 1.19 .. Joe DiPenta
27 .. 0.45 .. 13.01 .. _.13 .. _.30 .. Bobby Allen
27 .. 0.45 .. 14.03 .. _.26 .. 1.14 .. Kent Huskins
27 .. 0.45 .. 11.46 .. _.29 .. _.10 .. Brad Ference
26 .. 0.45 .. 14.35 .. _.29 .. _.44 .. Doug Janik
25 .. 1.00 .. 14.13 .. _.07 .. _.22 .. Ossi Vaananen

44 .. 0.85 .. 17.54 .. _.15 .. 4.54 .. Chris Chelios
37 .. 1.20 .. 15.42 .. _.17 .. 3.26 .. Glen Wesley
37 .. 0.50 .. _7.07 .. _.03 .. 1.19 .. Luke Richardson
36 .. 0.95 .. 12.55 .. _.04 .. 1.38 .. Jon Klemm
36 .. 0.60 .. 22.41 .. 3.04 .. 3.36 .. Sean Hill
36 .. 0.50 .. 13.14 .. _.15 .. 1.08 .. Jason York
35 .. 0.70 .. 20.27 .. 1.13 .. 3.04 .. Ken Klee
34 .. 2.28 .. 19.29 .. _.11 .. 4.23 .. Aaron Miller
34 .. 2.13 .. 20.12 .. 2.17 .. 3.01 .. Darryl Sydor
33 .. 2.05 .. 22.09 .. 2.02 .. 3.06 .. Greg deVries
33 .. 0.60 .. 14.01 .. 2.44 .. _.44 .. Bryan Muir
32 .. 0.50 .. __.__ .. _.__ .. _.__ .. Joel Bouchard (dnp)
31 .. 2.48 .. 21.23 .. 2.34 .. 3.10 .. Craig Rivet
31 .. 2.51 .. 15.19 .. _.30 .. 1.43 .. Janne Niinimaa
31 .. 2.00 .. 20.07 .. _.23 .. 3.50 .. Andy Sutton
31 .. 1.52 .. 19.56 .. _.08 .. 3.46 .. Sean O'Donnell
31 .. 0.60 .. 19.48 .. 2.45 .. 2.44 .. Anders Eriksson

Group A: the 'name' group

The big names are Rafalski, Souray and Timonen mainly because they all have good counting numbers from their PP time and because they are also pretty good at EV play. Markov is the guy everyone knows about but he is usually listed after the big three. Expect everyone of the those four to get some $5 mill+ /yr. Timonen and Rafalski could get past the $6 million mark.

Poti and Hamrlik comprise the 'unappreciated' part of this group. Both play well-rounded games and play a LOT of minutes doing it. Hamrlik may have trouble breaking the $4 million mark but probably wants a long-term deal retirement deal regardless. Poti has matured into a decent, all-around d-man so expect a big payday for him - $4.50 mill+ /yr.

Hannan and Stuart represent the guys who come next - solid, well regarded d-men who are nowhere near being true #1 defensemen. They play a lot of minutes each game and they don't get freebie counting points from their PP time. Expect each of these guys to get $4 mill+ /yr with an outside shot at $5 million if a bidding war erupts.

Group B: the 'lunchpail' group

Players best suited to playing in the #4 spot or playing support for a true #1 - and everyone knows it. Modry is slowing down while Tjarnqvist's numbers benefitted from playing with expansion teams. Both play a good all-around game. Expect Modry to take a retirement contract around $2 million while Tjarnqvist aims at a 3 yr deal averaging $1.75 mill /yr or so.

The rest of this group all play defense first.

Most of this group will end up in the $1.5 - 2.5 mill /yr range with prices varying due to how long they are on the list given their strengths and weaknesses. i.e. where Markov plays against tough competition AND performs well, Skoula plays 2nd tier opposition and does okay.

Group C: the 'defense?' group

A long list of offense-first d-men. They tend to play a lot of protected minutes and get good counting numbers from their powerplay time.

Schneider and Numminen are the grizzled vets and I expect they will either retire or look for 2 year retirement contracts. Given that both play a solid veteran game they are probably worth said contract - I expect that if they want to keep playing someone will keep paying.

Brisebois, Ozolinsch, Berard & Jackman represent the worst of this grouping. None play a particularly sound defensive game. Some team will sign them but they will probably wait in UFA limbo the longest. Jackman is the cheapest of the group and may be lucky to break 750k while the others will hover in the $1.5 - 2.5 mill /yr. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brisebois and Ozo retire.

I hereby admit a softspot for Jamie Heward. I have always thought this guy was better than he ever got credit for being. ANY team that wants a solid 2nd unit PP unit guy would be well advised to look at Heward's numbers - especially the 700k or so a year it costs to get him. The guy is a LOT better than most think and the smart GM will pay the pittance to have him on the team.

Sopel is neither here nor there imo. Good counting numbers from his days in Vancouver playing with the likes of Jovo, Ohlund and Salo. Tough work if you can get it. Somebody will pay him the $2.0 - 2.5 mill /yr he will want. The same can be said of Preissing. Kid has good counting numbers in sheltered time so someone will pay him money he doesn't deserve (imo): $1.5 - 2.5 mill /yr.

Zanon and Tanabe are the wildcards in the group. Tanabe has been high on hype before but the time to pick him up is now (other teams have paid the price for developing him). Numbers are pretty good and at age 25 will only get better. Zanon is a full on gamble. Nashville is a good team so his numbers are fine - question is - how much of it is due to him. Could be worth a flyer.


Group D: the 'it's a good-life' group

The guys who aren't the 'best-in-class' by any stretch of the imagination but they work hard and as long as they play appropriate minutes they don't hurt you. The numbers for Brooks make me laugh - the guy only plays 8 or so minutes a game yet almost 3 of them are on the PK? That's just wierd. He should remain happy just to be employed.

Rivers, Pratt and Hnidy are interesting in that they have all been around a good long time. Lots of games doesn't mean lots of game but they should, at the least, be decent veterans and make for a good rookie babysitter (i.e. a decent #6 or #7 guy). 900k would represent good money for Pratt or Hnidy while Rivers looks like he has been slotted down in the 550k range by the team GM's. Fair enough.

Fitzpatrick, Hejda, Melichar and Scuderi interest me a lot. Given his late season showing Hejda may be the real deal while Melichar and Scuderi have just had their development costs paid by the Penguins (crazy as that sounds). Fitzpatrick has good counting and PK numbers but is playing with a fairly deep defense on a team sporting Luongo; i.e. more of a gamble than many may think.

The bargain bin specials are Kwiatkowski, DiPenta (EVERYONE in Anaheim plays protected minutes given the presence of Pronger and Neids), Ference and Allen. Lucky to be employed. Weaver, Huskins, Janik and Vaananen may or may not become steady players but they are getting 'at-bats' (TM Lowetide) and that never hurts. Low, low prices here.

Group E: the 'you still play?' group

One of the benefits of being an established NHL vet is that you continue to be treated like you can still play like an established NHL vet. Richardson, Klemm and York are NHL caliber players in name only and should be retired sooner rather than later. Bouchard is prolly a goner (and no... I haven't looked up his status... ever I think).

Chelios and Wesley are going the 'mentor' route and are still, amazingly, not too bad on the ice. Their next contract should be their last so look for them to retire with their current teams. Hill, pre-steroids, could have been the comeback player of the year but now... who knows? Look for him to get a two-year, retirement style deal with the Islanders at ~ $1.2 to 1.5 mill /yr.

Where Niinimaa needs a headcheck because he has had a dreadful time adapting to the new NHL rules, Muir continues to do what he has always done - stick with some team for some of the season playing some version of mostly steady hockey and get paid accordingly. For older vets these two represent the bargain bin. Niinimaa being the gamble.

Klee, Miller, Sydor, deVries, Rivet, Sutton, O'Donnell and Eriksson are all steady as they go vets. They all have significant plusses and minuses (Klee is 35, Miller has injury issues, O'Donnell is slow, etc) but slotted in the right spot they will do okay. Prices will range all over the place - as low as 900k for some (Klee) and as high as $2.5 mill /yr for others (Sydor, deVries).


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Next part of this post follows directly below.

2006-07 Off-Season UFA's (Part Two - Defensemen) - B

Part 'B' of the second in a series of posts on the UFA market that will hit this coming off-season. Part 'A' is directly above this one.

Who to target?

For my money I like (from each group):

Markov, A.

Hannan

Poti

Lukowich

Tjarnqvist

Markov, D

Skoula / Vishnevski

Tanabe

Preissing

Zanon

Hejda

Pratt

Melichar / Scuderi

Weaver / Huskins

deVries

Rivet

Niinimaa

The first team to offer Andrei Markov $5 mill /yr for 9 yrs is the smartest team out there imo. He doesn't have the kind of game that deteriorates with age, he already plays at the $4.5 mill+ level and a 9 yr contract is inflation protected out the wazoo. Montreal would be insane to let him go so I don't expect they will - look for a 3 yr deal at $5.0 mill /yr.

Hannan and Poti are both nice plays in the $3.5 - 4.0 mill /yr range but I expect Poti to be gunning for $4.5 - 5.0 mill /yr; at that price take Hannan. Last thing a team should do is sign either player to a short-term deal. Both are nearing their primes and one really good season makes them sure-fire $5 mill+ players. Again, with these two, go long or go home. Poti will probably stay with the Islanders while Hannan will reach the silly season. Lowe will make a play for Hannan if available.

Lukowich has always been a favorite of mine and New Jersey would be insane to let him go given his price. Expect a 3 yr deal in the $1.5 - 1.8 mill /yr range. He is a steal at that rate. I like Tjarnqvist because he is better than most think and he is cheap like Lukowich. Expect him to go UFA and get signed short term in the $1.5 - 1.8 mill /yr range. I like Tampa Bay for him.

The 'tough' Markov may be tired of being a gypsy and his play in Detroit has been excellent so I expect him to get a 3 yr offer there in the $2.6 - 2.8 mill /yr range.

Skoula and Vishnevski are two players who are just entering their primes, have played a lot of games and have, hopefully, learned all they need to. I expect both to hit UFA status and both to get 2 yr deals at $1.8 - 2.0 mill /yr.

Tanabe has been around the block a few times and is only 25. He has learned how to play defense and still has some offensive potential in him. He represents, to me, one of the great value signings this entire UFA season. The team smart enough to sign him to a four or five year deal at a decent price (say $1.5 - 1.8 mill /yr) just signed a cornerstone #4 d-man for cheap. Expect Carolina to re-sign him to a shorter term deal however - especially if Wesley retires.

Preissing has great counting numbers but plays butter minutes. I expect some team to horribly overpay him and then horribly mis-use him. If I am a team that can afford that I pay him the $2.0 - 2.5 mill /yr he wants and play him on the PP and against the weakest competition I can. I also sign him really long term because it ain't worth it to have him leave AFTER he has a 50 pt season.

Zanon is the total wildcard out of this group. Played a whack of PP minutes but didn't score much. Does he have offensive skill? Averaging 4.11 min /gm on the PP I have to think he had some. I am intrigued to say the least. I expect him to re-sign with Nashville but if he goes UFA I think a lot of teams would be smart to take a flyer on the guy in the 900k /yr range.

Hejda is, to me, the real deal. The guy totally solidified the defensive pairing he played on. Being a veteran from Europe he simply didn't need the babysitting the rookies did. I fully expect Lowe to re-sign him for 2 yrs at $1.0 - 1.2 mill /yr.

Having followed his stats for years I like Pratt as an underpriced veteran (much like Lukowich). A smart team looking for solid depth will pick him up. I expect him to hit UFA status, given Tampa's budget issues, and I expect a 3 yr deal at $1.2 - 1.3 mill /yr. A steal at that price.

As mentioned, Melichar and Scuderi are two players that Pittsburgh has paid the training costs on. Scooping them from Pittsburgh is just smart player asset management. Much like Pratt I expect these two to get 3 yr deals in the $1.2 - 1.3 mill /yr range. Cheap, cheap price to pay.

Weaver and Huskins are depth player gambles. Short term deals at low dollars and then cross your fingers and hope it all works out. Expect less than 800k for each.

deVries and Rivet represent the grizzled veteran corps that was once overpaid and now returned to earth (part of the reason as to why there is a new CBA). No mistake though - solid veterans that play a lot of minutes in important roles. Expect they will want long-term deals in the $2.0 - 2.5 mill /yr range. They are worth that imo.

Niinimaa... not just because I am sentimental. Niinimaa is old-school hockey and he loves the game - he may very well sign for REALLY low dollars just to get a chance to prove himself. Anything less than 900k could be a bargain.

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So that is the defensemen. Were I Lowe and I was going to play it conservatively ('make-the-play-offs') I make my plays for:

-- Markov (A.), Hannan, Tanabe, Hejda, Lukowich, deVries, Skoula, Pratt, Melichar, Scuderi, Tjarnqvist and Niinimaain in that order.

If I treat my team as a rebuild it moves deVries down to the bottom of the list.

Snagging Tanabe, Lukowich and Hejda would be a great UFA season imo (cheap adds that would be very effective) - beaten only be getting any one of Markov or Hannan.

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Have a great evening everyone.