Thursday 14 June 2007

NHL Entry Draft (2007)


For archive purposes I am compiling and re-posting my NHL Entry Draft (2007) stuff here. Below are links to a review of the 1st round of the draft and then to a review of the picks the Oilers made in the draft:

NHL Entry Draft 2007 - First Round Review

NHL Entry Draft 2007 - Oiler Picks

For myself, Voracek is the real deal imo and I am on record as preferring that the Oilers:

-- trade up to get him OR
-- they trade down to secure more top-30 picks.

i.e. Using the 6th pick and a roster player to get the 9th, 24th and 26th out of St. Louis wouldn't be a bad way to go.

Without further ado...

Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)

01 -- __6
01 -- _15
01 -- _30
02 -- _36
03 -- ___ Traded to Minnesota (Roloson)
04 -- _96
05 -- 126
06 -- 156
07 -- ___ Traded to Buffalo (Hejda)

Remember to adjust for compensation picks.

Team Order - 1st Round

01.. Chicago ....... via Lottery
02.. Philadelphia
03.. Phoenix
04.. Los Angeles
05.. Washington
06.. Edmonton
07.. Columbus
08.. Boston
09.. St. Louis
10.. Florida
11.. Carolina
12.. Montreal
13.. Toronto
14.. Colorado
15.. Edmonton ....... via ... NY Islanders
16.. Anaheim ........ via ... Tampa Bay
17.. NY Rangers
18.. Calgary
19.. Minnesota
20.. Pittsburgh
21.. Phoenix ........ via ... Dallas
22.. Montreal ....... via ... San Jose
23.. Nashville
24.. St. Louis ...... via ... Atlanta
25.. Vancouver
26.. St. Louis ...... via ... New Jersey
27.. Detroit
28.. Washington ..... via ... Buffalo
29.. Ottawa
30.. Edmonton ....... via ... Anaheim

Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).

Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.

Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.

The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)

... McKeens ..... ISS ......... Redline* .... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Turris
2.. Turris ...... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanRiems. ... Kane
3.. Voracek ..... Turris ...... Turris ...... Turris ..... *Cherep.
4.. Alzner ...... Cherep. ..... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanReim.
5.. vanReims. ... Voracek ..... Gagner ...... Cherepanov .. Ellerby
6.. Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Couture ..... Gagner ..... *Backlund
7.. Shattenkirk . Gagner ...... Hamill ...... Couture ..... Alzner
8.. McDonagh .... Mayorov ..... Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Gagner
9.. Gagner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito .... Esposito ... *Eller
10. Couture ..... Backlund .... Moller ...... Sutter ...... Voracek
11. Sweatt ...... Esposito ... *Alzner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito
12. Hamill ...... Gillies .... *Cole ........ Hamill ..... *Mayorov
13. Eller ....... Couture .... *McDonagh .... Gillies ..... Hamill
14. Ellerby ..... Petrecki ... *Katic ....... Mayorov ..... Perron
15. MacMillan ... Perron ..... *Petrecki .... Petrecki .... McDonagh

Graded Rankings

.......... Top-10 . Scoring
Kane ........ 5 ___ 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 14 = 74
Turris ...... 5 ___ 14 + 13 + 13 + 13 + 15 = 68
vanReimsdyk . 5 ___ 11 + 14 + 12 + 14 + 12 = 63
Voracek ..... 4 ___ 13 + 11 + 14 + 12 + 06 = 56
Cherepanov .. 4 ___ 10 + 12 + 08 + 11 + 12 = 53
Gagner ...... 5 ___ 07 + 09 + 11 + 10 + 08 = 45
Alzner ...... 4 ___ 12 + 10 + 05 + 08 + 09 = 44
Couture ..... 3 ___ 06 + 03 + 10 + 09 + 00 = 28
Ellerby ..... 2 ___ 02 + 07 + 00 + 05 + 11 = 25
Esposito .... 2 ___ 00 + 05 + 07 + 07 + 05 = 24
Hamill ...... 1 ___ 04 + 00 + 09 + 04 + 03 = 20
Backlund .... 2 ___ 00 + 06 + 00 + 00 + 10 = 16
Mayorov ..... 1 ___ 00 + 08 + 00 + 02 + 04 = 14
McDonagh .... 1 ___ 08 + 00 + 03 + 00 + 01 = 12
Eller ....... 1 ___ 03 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 07 = 10
Shattenkirk . 1 ___ 09 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 09
Gillies ..... 0 ___ 00 + 04 + 00 + 03 + 00 = 07
Sweatt ...... 0 ___ 05 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 05
Petrecki .... 0 ___ 00 + 02 + 01 + 01 + 00 = 04
Perron ...... 0 ___ 00 + 01 + 00 + 00 + 02 = 03
Cole
Katic
MacMillan

The big 3: Kane, Turris & vanReimsdyk
Next best thing: Voracek, Alzner, Cherepanov & Gagner
Could be Good: Couture, Ellerby & Esposito
Afterthoughts: Hamill, Backlund & everyone else

A Rule Of Thumb

When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.

Eller has 10 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Backlund by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Esposito or Couture.

Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:

-- Turris could go #1 and Voracek could overtake vanReimsdyk but not Turris or Kane
-- Cherepanov may overtake Voracek but Gagner will not
-- If anyone ranked below Gagner is chosen in the top-7 it SHOULD be a major surprise
-- If anyone ranked below Backlund is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

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* USAToday only publishes Redline's top-10 so I do not have an official top-15 list. Luckily for me they publish the Redline top-10 every month. The extra 5 players listed have shown up on more recent Redline listings at one point in time or another.

** CSS does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.

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Have a great evening everyone. New post tomorrow.

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