Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction

Edmonton Oilers

2007 Version

Historical Review of Draft Results

Introduction

Please leave your comments here.

This is opposite the rest of the pages where I kindly ask that you withhold comment until I am done... I apologize for how long this took to produce.

Welcome to the 2007 edition of the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review. It is a comprehensive study of the draft history of the Edmonton Oilers NHL Hockey team. Two earlier editions of this study/review have been produced (by myself) in 2000 and in 2003. The 2000 study is, I believe, still archived at www.Oilfans.com.

The version you are looking at now is a complete upgrade of the original study (2000) and a minor upgrade of the second (2003).

This is a very long article/study. I review the last 29 years of the Edmonton Oilers draft history, grade every player on their performance as a hockey player, and then dissect that information into six (7) key analysis groups so that I can measure the success of the organization in terms of: Draft Year, Draft Pick, Draft Round, Player Age When Drafted, Drafting by Position, Developmental League and Nationality.

"... grade every player on their performance as a hockey player... ". This is very important and I will devote an entire chapter (the 'Player Grading System') of this review to that goal. For now I will limit my comments to a single, pertinent point: This study is concerned with the organizations ability to draft talent - how that player played for the Oilers or what 'value' that player had in relation to trades made (for example) is irrelevant.

While every page of this review will have some of my commentary on it, I am leaving much of the analysis open for discussion. Take from it what you will. This is, as far as I know, the most complete study of its kind anywhere and there is an amazing amount of ancillary work that could be done with a data set like this - go to town.

"... It is, after all, my work." Please keep that in mind, not just for purposes of copyright, but for purposes of simple etiquette as well. Feel free to critique - just don't be an ass about it.

Thanks.

Chapter links can be found below. The study is best read by following the links in order.

Without further ado, I invite you to read and enjoy, the Edmonton Oilers Draft Review (2007) Edition.

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Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Introduction
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results Summation

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1979 to 1983
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1984 to 1988
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1989 to 1993
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1994 to 1998
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 1999 to 2003
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Yrs 2004 to 2007

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Year
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Pick
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Round
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Age
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Position
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By League
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Draft Results By Country of Birth

Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Player Grading System
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Graded Players Summary
Edmonton Oilers 2007 HRDR - Data Set Changes

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft - Your Oilers

Note that I have borrowed liberally from TSN, the NHL and Eliteprospects.com. All credit is due them.

While I didn't like the Oilers draft moves at all, I did like the players they took. The last two Euro's (Kytnar and Quist) look like real sleeper picks and make me think the Oilers weren't just going through the motions this year. Odd that later picks would give me more comfort on earlier picks but that is how it has worked.

Without further ado, at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft the Edmonton Oilers draft picks were:

006 - Sam Gagner

C/RW
Shoots: R
1989 Birthyear (18 in August)
5'11" / 190 lbs
Canada

Skill player. Has great numbers both in terms of real numbers but also in terms of equivalencies.

My read is that this is a good pick. He projects out well, wasn't a reach at where he was chosen and has the skills needed to play. Issues are that he played for the London Knights and with Kane - both situations that pump up the numbers a bit. That said, still a good choice.

From NHL Central Scouting: A skilled forward with the ability to make the big plays. Has very good hands and is creative with the puck. Has a good wrist shot with a quick release. Has high-end passing skill both forehand and backhand. Sees the ice very well. Reliable in the defensive end and used in critical situations. A good skater, but needs to work on his acceleration and mobility. Needs to improve his ability to fight through checks.

From TSN: ... has spectacular highlight-reel puckhandling skills ... But for all the fancy dangles, he also has a lethal shot ... his strength is as a creative playmaker with great vision and passing ability ... "Skating is okay, not like his Dad's," said one scout of former NHL speedster Dave Gagner, who was blessed with great wheels but didn't have nearly the creativity or vision that his son brings to the table. For him to be more than a PP guy, scouts believe he will have to learn to win more battles and increase his competitiveness, but they duly note that this a young man with character and work ethic who grew up in a pro environment and understands what it takes to play at the next level and will work diligently toward that goal.

From ISS: His offensive skills are unquestionable and he has been a top point producer at every level that he has played. Shows very good puck control at a high rate of speed ... excellent anticipation, vision and passing skills ... Like other young players, at times will cheat on the offensive side of the puck, however he is dependable if game situation clearly requires strong defensive play. Does not have great size, must continue to work on core strength.

015 - Alex Plante

D
Shoots: R
1988 Birthyear (19 in May)
6'4" / 225 lbs
Canada

Defensive defenseman. Has great physical attributes and good numbers (especially in the play-offs) for a guy who is supposed to be a defensive defenseman.

My read is that this is a good pick. The only thing I don't like about it is that he was chosen ahead of Cherepanov. He projects out well, was debateable as a reach at where he was chosen but the physical package is such that he could ACTUALLY be the rarest of all things - a franchise d-man. Issues are that he has an '89 birthyear and that he really needs to work on his skating and mobility. That said, if not for the Cherepanov controversy, I really like the pick.

From NHL Central Scouting: A stay-at-home defenseman with good size. Has a long stride and is able to skate the puck out of his own zone. Moves the puck quickly and shoots well from the point. Is well positioned. Needs to improve his foot speed and agility. Needs to improve his play under pressure.

The TSN Insider's Forecast: ... is a big, strong, aggressive player who is not without some offensive ability ... probably the polar opposite to / an ultra-offensive minded defenceman ... The question mark on Alex is skating but he has enough assets to get by ...

From ISS: ... one of the biggest draft wildcards. The number one attraction of this player is his combination of outstanding size and skill. He is blessed with a genetic gift and a relatively high level of skating and puck skill for a player this big. Plante is an intense player who is mean and not afraid of playing along the boards or competing physically. He has a good stride and his agility is improving.

021 - Riley Nash

C
Shoots: R
1989 Birthyear (18 in May)
6' 1" / 175 lbs
Canada

3rd line center with 2nd line upside. Good skater and plays a smart game. His point totals indicate he is a fairly decent passer.

Again, I like the player but hate how we got him - a reach where he was taken and we gave up two other, very good, draft picks to get this guy. Could be the next Zajac but getting a good read on guys who are basically playing highschool level hockey is tough. Going to Cornell next year and the school isn't known for being a hockey player factory. Lots of issues with this guy and he will HAVE to turn out well just to justify the picks used. I want to like the guy but am having trouble doing so. Here's hoping...

From NHL Central Scouting: A skilled forward. A shifty center with good skating ability. Handles the puck with ease and is smart positionally. Needs to be more consistent through 60 minutes. Needs to improve his ability to get in to good scoring position.

The TSN Insider's Forecast: Nash's biggest weakness at this point is that he's not physically developed and needs to get much stronger.

From ISS: ... a good, honest player willing to work hard and give a consistent effort every night. He fits the mould of a "late-bloomer" and with continued attention to small details he will continue to improve.

097 - Linus Omark

W
Shoots: L

1987 Birthyear (20 in February)
5'8" / 167 lbs
Sweden

2nd line playmaking winger. Good skater, smart player, good skills, poor size. Being brought in to a) give him his shot and b) push the other prospects.

I have to say that I really like this pick (though I think we should have traded up to get Mayorov, who went at #94 to Columbus). As an overager who has been playing the professional game Omark is a true boom-or-bust pick. Given that the pick is from the 4th round I don't really care if it is a reach or not and a gamble at this point is well worth it. Size is a big issue because if he does make the team, with guys like Thoreson already aboard, the Oilers will look a lot like Smurfs in those blue jersey.

From NHL Central Scouting: A skilled forward with excellent speed… has quick feet and can beat defenders one-on-one… handles the puck well in traffic and passes the puck well forehand and backhand… sees the ice well and is effective on the power-play… battles hard along the boards…

From Eliteprospects.com: A flashy player with first-class technical skills and hands. Very creative player with good hockey sense and natural scoring ability. Defense is okay, although it can be fine-tuned. Good skater with great agility and moves. Additional strength and muscles would not hurt.

127 - Milan Kytnar

C

Shoots: L

1989 Birthyear (18 in May)

6'0" / 182 lbs

Slovakia

2nd or 3rd line center. Interesting blend of defense and skill.

I love this pick. Has all the hallmarks of the kind of under-the-radar guy that teams like Detroit have been scooping for years. Young guy has already made a mark on the international stage and has already captained a team a national level team. Everything about him screams big upside and a character guy. Only issue is the skating so lets hope he gets that training asap.

From NHL Central Scouting: A hard working two-way center… has good hands and a quick stick on face-offs… has good on-ice awareness and a good shot... able to play very physical… needs to improve his first step quickness…

From Eliteprospects.com: nothing reported.

157 - William Quist

LW

Shoots: L

1989 Birthyear (18 in July)

6'3" / 191 lbs

Sweden

All over the map. Winger. Skill guy with great skating and reach.

Another pick I love. Another one of those 'under-the-radar' guys and if he can actually play then the only thing holding him back is strength. Barring an affliction of 'Niinimaki syndrome' (the inability to gain strength and stay healthy) that can be developed. Probably won't be anything but all a team needs is one guy from the later rounds to really turn out and all is gold - just ask Detroit about Datsyuk and Zetterberg one day.

From NHL Central Scouting: nothing reported.

From Eliteprospects.com: A huge guy that is a very good and speedy skater. Quist is technically skilled and has good hands. He is creative with the puck and tough to stop thanks to his great reach. Could use some extra muscles and strength.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft (2007) - Review

The more I think about this draft the less happy I am with it - at least as far as the performance of the Oilers go that is.

01 ... CHI ... Kane

02 ... PHI ... vanReimsdyk

03 ... PHO ... Turris

04 ... LAK ... Hickey

05 ... WAS ... Alzner

06 ... EDM ... Gagner

07 ... CLB ... Voracek

Excepting Hickey (who was well off the boards on most lists), the first 7 picks were like clockwork. While I really liked Voracek and - STILL - like him better than Gagner I can understand the Gagner pick. He did well in London.

Which is the problem. In London he played with Kane and he played under Hunter's system and as we have seen with Schremp, Perry et al, Hunter's system really pumps up the point totals of his offensive players (long shifts, lots of PP time, etc.).

Gagner may go on to score more points but my call is that Voracek will be the better player overall. STILL, Gagner was a solid pick. He should be a good player, he was on all the boards at that spot and his risk factors were low.

Note that LA missed an easy trade down here. No way Hickey was going before Alzner, Gagner & Voracek, they must have gotten greedy and were asking too much. Trading to the #7 or the #8 was doable here and any return is better than none. LA screwed up.

08 ... BOS ... Hamill

09 ... SJS ... Couture

10 ... FLO ... Ellerby

The rest of the top-10 brings us our first trade (San Jose and St. Louis) and a second surprise pick (Hamill). Unlike Hickey, Hamill isn't that far off the boards BUT the two picks combined pop Cherepanov out of the top-10. Boston, like LA, misses an easy trade down.

This sets up the first bit of drama in the draft - how far? Most can project Esposito to Montreal at #12 but that still leaves a lot of teams out there to take Cherepanov in the next few picks. As a legit top-5 talent in this draft class how far can he fall?

The trade was San Jose sending the #13 (via Toronto), the #44 and a 3rd in 2008 to St. Louis for the #9. San Jose is always aggressive and Couture is totally their kind of player. St. Louis does well to score two extra draft picks.

11 ... CAR ... Sutter

12 ... MON ... McDonagh

13 ... STL ... Eller

14 ... COL ... Shattenkirk

15 ... EDM ... Plante

More surprises here. Montreal passes on Esposito and all pass on Cherepanov. Carolina goes for character and the 'Sutter' mystique while Montreal and Colorado go after the hottest new thing - young American defensemen. St. Louis DOES go for skill but takes Eller instead.

All the picks are, moderately, solid picks to make but Cherepanov is now some 10 spots behind his probable draft ranking. We are witnessing full free-fall. We are also witnessing one of the few chances the Oilers will ever have to take true world-class talent.

We pick Plante.

I am now operating at a loss. Sure, Plante has potential but Cherepanov has exactly what the organization needs - high-end skill level. And he still has potential to be the best from the draft. An organization that needs skill takes a defenseman ranked well down the scale.

It beggars the mind.

Alzner, Ellerby, McDonagh, Shattenkirk, Hickey and Petrecki all rank significantly higher on most lists and higher on an aggregated basis as well - of those only Ellerby and Petrecki had 'hockey sense' issues. The #15 pick was a trade-down waiting to happen and it never did.

KNOWING that they weren't going to take Cherepanov, somewhere around pick #12 Edmonton should have made a contingency trade with the Rangers (if Cherepanov is there at #15 we get the #17 and a 5th rounder) - by the 15th it was too late. Rangers knew they had him.

Not happy at all with it. The only saving grace is what follows next:

Anaheim trades down and sends the #16 to Minnesota for the #19 and the #42 picks. So maybe Anaheim wanted Plante and the moment they couldn't get him they knew their next guy was available later and so traded down.

For Lowe's sake I hope so.

16 ... MIN ... Gillies

17 ... NYR ... Cherepanov

Minnesota picks a banger... because they just lost to Anaheim?? Gillies won't be ready until well after Pronger and Neidermayer are gone. On the plus side he IS a monster who can actually play so maybe he will be a difference maker via his aggressiveness.

Finally. The Rangers get Cherepanov. Cherepanov gets the Rangers. It is a perfect match. The Rangers love the showboats and Cherepanov will be on Broadway so... good for them. Incredible steal by the Rangers.

This is where the Oilers should have traded to. Barring the Anaheim maneuver Plante would have been available here. It really is too bad. Also note that Esposito is now some 7 to 9 picks behind his aggregate ranking. He is falling fast.

Calgary then trades down and sends the #18 to St. Louis for the #24 and the #70 picks. Standard 6 spot trade-up though I don't think Calgary squeezes enough out of them. St. Louis gives up very little to get their guy so good trade for them.

18 ... STL ... Cole

19 ... ANA ... MacMillan

20 ... PIT ... Esposito

21 ... EDM ... Nash

St. Louis takes a stay-at-home d-man (Redline loved him) while Anaheim picks up another hard-charging, two-way style forward. I have no opinions in any way on those picks. Good for them I guess.

Esposito hits the jackpot. He will get time on the wing with any of Crosby, Malkin or Staal. Wow. Maybe we have to start thinking that getting picked high is a BAD thing because Esposito will have to try to fail in Pittsburgh.

Edmonton then trades up with Phoenix, netting the #21 pick in exchange for the #30 and the #36. Great trade for Phoenix. Awful trade for Edmonton imo. A 9 spot leap at the shorter end of a round costs the #36 pick (high 2nd round)?

St. Louis only paid with the #70 (mid-to-high 3rd round) to get a 6 spot leap EARLIER in the draft. Lowe would have been better off to offer the 4th (2007) and a 3rd from 2008. Or something.

In a draft like this, with guys like Mayorov, Sweatt, Katic and Andersson still available, the #36 is like having an extra mid-round #1 pick. Lowe got schooled. By Phoenix of all teams. Insult to injury imo.

Nash should be a pretty good player. Given the price paid to get him he had d**n well better be.

22 ... MON ... Pacioretty

23 ... NAS ... Blum

24 ... CAL ... Backlund

25 ... VAN ... White

26 ... STL ... Perron

27 ... DET ... Smith

Best pick out of this group is Backlund imo. Most listings had him solidly in the top-20 and on an aggregate basis he was top-15 or higher. The rest of them are just guys you pick when you do because it is your turn next and his name is top-of-your-list.

St. Louis did very well this 1st round. They took the #9, #24, #26 and #70 and turned it into the #13 (Eller), #18 (Cole), #26 (Perron), the 44th and a 3rd in 2008. Davidson practically put on a clinic in regards to leveraging draft position.

Great draft for them.

Washington then traded the #28 to San Jose for the #41 and a 2nd rounder in 2008. Not a great trade but Washington is betting on the 2008 draft being as good as everyone says it will be. Personal opinion - bad trade. Should have squeezed more out of San Jose.

A) Backlund was on the board as late #24 while B) Petrecki was a highly rated d-man going in. Washington needs more draft picks like it needs a kick in the head so trading up for Backlund or taking Petrecki and doubling their chances of getting a high-end D-man to turn out (from Alzner and Petrecki) was the way to go.

28 ... SJS ... Petrecki

29 ... OTT ... O'Brien

30 ... PHO ... Ross

So tell me. If the draft was soooo bad why did San Jose, who started the day with NO first round picks end up bartering significant assets away to score two of them AND then manipulate the board to get the guys they wanted?

San Jose turned the #13, #44, a 2nd round pick in 2008 and a 3rd rounder in 2008 for the #9 (Couture) and the #28 (Petrecki).

San Jose is an aggressive team at the draft and has a history of drafting well. They paid the price for Couture and got a deal on Petrecki. Couture was a legit top-10 in this draft while Petrecki was considered one of the better d-men.

I have to assume - great draft day for San Jose. That team always has assets available for trade and is never afraid to use them.

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The winners are (in order):

-- St. Louis (great maneuvers),

-- San Jose (killer instinct),

-- Phoenix (fleeced Edmonton),

-- New York Rangers (cherry on top),

-- Pittsburgh (unreal skill level),

-- Columbus (Voracek was still around - yay Kings!),

-- Calgary (extra pick and Backlund at #24),

-- Anaheim (nice extra pick),

-- Esposito and Cherepanov.

The losers are (in order):

-- Los Angeles (could have traded down imo),

-- Boston (could have traded down imo),

-- Washington (mis-fired on the #28 and missed Backlund)

-- Edmonton (poor maneuvering, no Cherepanov)

Their maneuvering was so bad that their guys HAVE to turn out in order to vindicate the decision making. One could try to say the same of San Jose but:

-- they didn't pay through the nose to get their picks,

-- they got Couture near where he was ranked,

-- they got Petrecki well down the list

-- they didn't need a great draft to help turn their fortunes around

Edmonton, i.e. Lowe, doesn't have that kind of leeway. I do think their players are better than many think (I like Nash, not so much Plante and I am ambivalent on Gagner vs Voracek) but they REALLY need at least one of them to cover the bet and another to pay-off to make it all good.

Draft could have been:

-- Gagner, Cherepanov and Backlund / Nash or

-- Gagner, Cherepanov, Mayorov and Andersson

Yes, yes. I know. The real winners will be those teams whose picks actually become usable player assets. Talk to you again in 5 years.

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Was fun. Have a great evening everyone.

The Big Day - First Round Fever

NEVER trust recipes from books. What takes them 3 minutes takes a flub like me 20. Sorry I'm late. Show just started and Balsillie has had his cut off... gonna be a good show...

5:10 pm - No action yet but the Globe and Mail is reporting that Chicago and Phoenix have a deal to swap picks. (EDIT: Guess not)

5:17 pm - Bettman gets a warm welcome.

5:30 pm - Chicago takes Kane at #1 ... its a start

5:37 pm - Philly takes vanReimsdyk at #2 ... so far ... yawn ...

5:45 pm - Gretzky (or Phoenix as some say) takes Turris at #3 - nice welcome for Gretz btw.

5:50 pm - like clockwork here - Los Angeles takes THOMAS HICKEY at #4??

Best ranking on that guy was #13 (TSN) - didn't show on Redline, McKeen's, THN, or anyone else for that matter.

Wow. Small defender goes #4. First big surprise in the draft.

Voracek for Edmonton now (though we hear it will be Gagner).

5:54 pm - TSN reporting that Edmonton almost made a deal. wheeeee....

5:59 pm - Washington takes Alzner at #5 - Voracek is ours if we want him...

6:04 pm - Oilers take Steve Kelly... I mean Gagner at #6

sigh

6:14 pm - Oilers take Voracek ... oh ... Columbus takes Voracek at #7

sigh again - thank god for good steak off the BBQ

6:20 pm - Neely - classy - I like that - Bruins take Hamill at #8

6:25 pm - TRADE

St. Louis send #9 to San Jose for #13, #44 and a 3rd (2008)

Nice trade. San Jose AGAIN trades up. These guys know who they want and go get them.

6:28 pm - San Jose take Couture at #9

6:33 pm - Florida takes Ellerby at #10

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So the top-10 actually taken compared to the aggregated list.

Kane ......... Kane
vanReimsdyk .. Turris
Turris ....... vanReimsdyk
Hickey ....... Voracek
Alzner ....... Cherepanov
Gagner ....... Gagner
Voracek ...... Alzner
Hamill ....... Couture
Couture ...... Ellerby
Ellerby ...... Esposito

Hickey is the wildcard, Hamill was #11 on the aggregated list so no surprise there. Cherepanov's exclusion is driving the TSN staff nuts.
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6:40 pm - Carolina takes Sutter #11

I'll call it - Cherepanov to Colorado. They are the first team who can afford to take a chance like that. Montreal takes Esposito next. St. Louis takes Eller.

6:44 pm - TSN is saying Gainey likes some American d-men so maybe Shattenkirk? nope. Montreal takes McDonagh at #12.

Look for something to come out of this is Quebec (well duh)

6:50 pm - St. Louis thanks their fans in Tuktoyaktuk. As do I. Jarmo kingmaker takes my call: St. Louis takes Eller at #13.

Damn. I liked him.

McGuire is freakin' out a bit over Cherepanov. I think Colorado takes him. If Colorado passes and we don't take him I will be very disappointed in Lowe.

6:54 pm - Colorado ruins my streak and takes Shattenkirk at #14 (who I think Edmonton wanted).

Will Anaheim get Cherepanov?

7:00 pm - Lowe gives up his chance to take a world class talent. Edmonton takes Plante at #15.

F*&k. Can't have enough defensive defencemen. Who needs scorers?

7:04 pm - TRADE

Anaheim sends #16 to Minnesota for #19 and #42.

Well played by Anaheim. Knowing it was Plante I think Edmonton could have traded down pretty easily imo.

7:07 pm - Minnesota takes Gillies at #16

TSN saying it is all Anaheim fear factor at play. Who knows. All I know is Cherepanov is still out there.

7:12 pm - New York gets, possibly, the best player in the draft, Cherepanov at #17

wow. lucky them. Oilers couldn't trade down at that point? yeesh.

oops - time warp!

7:06 pm - TRADE

Calgary sends #18 to St. Louis for #24 and #70

Another good trade by St. Louis. They get who they want. Lowe taking notes? Dammitt.

7:08 pm - St. Louis takes Cole at #18

7:12 pm - Anaheim finally pulls the trigger and gets MacMillan at #19

No idea on this one. 3rd line forward to pencil in.

Esposito, Backlund, Mayorov, Sweatt, Petrecki, Perron and Katic are left from the aggregate list. Can't see Pittsburgh taking him but who knows eh?

7:19 pm - heh. Pittsburgh takes Esposito at #20

Great for Esposito. Hope he can play wing.

7:24 pm - TRADE

Phoenix sends #21 to Edmonton for #30 and #36

Wow, did we pay a lot for those 9 spots. Sweatt?

7:26 pm - Edmonton chooses Riley Nash at #21

Sorry - but I officially hate that trade for that pick. Niinimaki the Second. He would have been there at 30 imo.

7:31 pm - Montreal takes Pacioretty at #22

Power forward type apparently.

7:36 pm - Nashville picks up Blum at #23

7:44 pm - Calgary takes Backlund at #24

Potentially a great pick-up for them. Aggregated rankings had him at #12.

7:47 pm - Vancouver takes White at #25

Off the board there - though TSN does report that ISS had him #23.

7:53 pm - St. Louis takes Perron at #26

Nice pick imo. Guy can score.

Eller, Cole and Perron plus the #44 and a 3rd in 2008 less the #70 pick. Clinic put on by St. Louis imo.

7:57 pm - Detroit takes character and potential with Smith at #27

Good pick.

8:03 pm - TRADE

Washington sends #28 to San Jose for #41 and and 2nd rounder in 2008

Nice trade

8:04 pm - San Jose then takes Petrecki at #28

Great pick. Like TSN says, was top-15 on most lists.

8:10 pm - Ottawa takes O'Brien at #29

Who? Oh well. Echoes of the Foster pick New Jersey made so many years ago.

8:14 pm - Phoenix takes Ross at #30

Wow. Guys like Mayorov, Sweatt, Katic - all still on the Board at #30.

Crazy draft imo.

Winners are Cherepanov (goes to the big show in New York), Esposito (he gets to play with Crosby, et al), St. Louis (lots of movement and good assets to show for it), Columbus (get a real player in Voracek), San Jose (getting Couture and Petrecki) and Phoenix (Turris and fleeced the Oilers).

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Have a great evening everyone.

The Big Day - Early Trades

Been a busy day so far. Pre-draft synopsis and analysis, as I can, will follow.

Calgary and Chicago - taking on salary for potential upside

Aucoin
FOR
Zyuzin

Zyuzin is a known quantity on the books for 1 more year at $1.475 mill ($1.400 Cap). Chicago just saved themselves $2.6 (2007/08) + 4.0 (2008/09) in Cap space and $6.525 in salary. Easy to see why they did the trade.

Calgary gets a guy who knows Keenan's system and, if healthy, is a top-10 d-man in the league. He can be THAT good on the power play. Question is: his health. If he continues to have the health issues Calgary lost this trade in a big, big way.

Overall - big gamble for Calgary.

Toronto and San Jose - draft picks for a UFA to be and a salary dump

13th overall pick (2007), 2nd round pick (2007) & 4th round pick (2009)
FOR
Toskala & Bell

Toronto shores up their goaltending picture and gets a LW who proved he can play the game in Chicago... but not so well in San Jose. Toskala alone makes this a good pick-up, Bell gets his game back and it is a big win all around.

San Jose gets something back for Toskala, who would never have re-signed there and who was keeping other prospects back, and dumps salary on a guy who just never worked out for them. Without a dime coming back in salary they can now make a big UFA play, and I think they will.

Great trade for Toronto but iffy for San Jose as it comes down to what they do with the money.

Nashville and Florida - predators declawed

Vokoun
FOR
1st round pick (2008), 2nd round pick (2007) and conditional 2nd rounder

2008 is a deeper draft but with Vokoun in net Florida is a MUCH better team so it is a bit of a saw-off for Nashville. Vokoun is a legit top-10 goalie so Nashville had better hope that Mason's performance from last year wasn't a fluke. Bad trade for them imo. Great for Balsillie though.

As noted, Vokoun is a legit top-10 goalie. Florida needed a goalie. With the core of that team (Horton Bouwmeister, etc) a year older Florida will be MUCH improved next year. The team also gets to keep their top-10 pick THIS year. What a nice trade for them.

Live Blog Attempt

Just like it says.

Starting at approx. 5:00 nwt time (MST) I will start live blogging the 2007 NHL Entry Draft. From home at least.

Should be fun.

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Have a great evening everyone. See you then maybe.

NHL Entry Draft (2007)

For archive purposes I am compiling and re-posting my NHL Entry Draft (2007) stuff here. Below are links to a review of the 1st round of the draft and then to a review of the picks the Oilers made in the draft:

NHL Entry Draft 2007 - First Round Review

NHL Entry Draft 2007 - Oiler Picks

For myself, Voracek is the real deal imo and I am on record as preferring that the Oilers:

-- trade up to get him OR

-- they trade down to secure more top-30 picks.

i.e. Using the 6th pick and a roster player to get the 9th, 24th and 26th out of St. Louis wouldn't be a bad way to go.

Without further ado...

Oiler Draft Picks (for use or trade)

01 -- __6

01 -- _15

01 -- _30

02 -- _36

03 -- ___ Traded to Minnesota (Roloson)

04 -- _96

05 -- 126

06 -- 156

07 -- ___ Traded to Buffalo (Hejda)

Remember to adjust for compensation picks.

Team Order - 1st Round

01.. Chicago ....... via Lottery

02.. Philadelphia

03.. Phoenix

04.. Los Angeles

05.. Washington

06.. Edmonton

07.. Columbus

08.. Boston

09.. St. Louis

10.. Florida

11.. Carolina

12.. Montreal

13.. Toronto

14.. Colorado

15.. Edmonton ....... via ... NY Islanders

16.. Anaheim ........ via ... Tampa Bay

17.. NY Rangers

18.. Calgary

19.. Minnesota

20.. Pittsburgh

21.. Phoenix ........ via ... Dallas

22.. Montreal ....... via ... San Jose

23.. Nashville

24.. St. Louis ...... via ... Atlanta

25.. Vancouver

26.. St. Louis ...... via ... New Jersey

27.. Detroit

28.. Washington ..... via ... Buffalo

29.. Ottawa

30.. Edmonton ....... via ... Anaheim

Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

Below are the listings of the top-15 picks of each of the different, and independent, scouting bureau's. They are: McKeen's, ISS (International Scouting Service), Redline (Woodlief), The Hockey News and the CSB (Central Scouting Bureau).

Below that is an aggregated listing of those datasets after they have been fed through a scoring system. The scoring system simply reverses the order on the list (i.e. a player ranked #1 on the list scores 15 points while a player ranked #15 scores 1 point) and then adds ALL the points that player generates from the different lists.

Note that I counted the number of times a draftee made the top-10 of a list. This is to help add perspective. Prospect 'A' may have fewer points than prospect 'B' but if prospect 'A' shows up top-10 on all 5 lists then prospect 'A' may be seen as a safer pick to make.

The Scouts Recommend (Final Lists)

... McKeens ..... ISS ......... Redline* .... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Turris

2.. Turris ...... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanRiems. ... Kane

3.. Voracek ..... Turris ...... Turris ...... Turris ..... *Cherep.

4.. Alzner ...... Cherep. ..... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanReim.

5.. vanReims. ... Voracek ..... Gagner ...... Cherepanov .. Ellerby

6.. Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Couture ..... Gagner ..... *Backlund

7.. Shattenkirk . Gagner ...... Hamill ...... Couture ..... Alzner

8.. McDonagh .... Mayorov ..... Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Gagner

9.. Gagner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito .... Esposito ... *Eller

10. Couture ..... Backlund .... Moller ...... Sutter ...... Voracek

11. Sweatt ...... Esposito ... *Alzner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito

12. Hamill ...... Gillies .... *Cole ........ Hamill ..... *Mayorov

13. Eller ....... Couture .... *McDonagh .... Gillies ..... Hamill

14. Ellerby ..... Petrecki ... *Katic ....... Mayorov ..... Perron

15. MacMillan ... Perron ..... *Petrecki .... Petrecki .... McDonagh

Graded Rankings

.......... Top-10 . Scoring

Kane ........ 5 ___ 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 14 = 74

Turris ...... 5 ___ 14 + 13 + 13 + 13 + 15 = 68

vanReimsdyk . 5 ___ 11 + 14 + 12 + 14 + 12 = 63

Voracek ..... 4 ___ 13 + 11 + 14 + 12 + 06 = 56

Cherepanov .. 4 ___ 10 + 12 + 08 + 11 + 12 = 53

Gagner ...... 5 ___ 07 + 09 + 11 + 10 + 08 = 45

Alzner ...... 4 ___ 12 + 10 + 05 + 08 + 09 = 44

Couture ..... 3 ___ 06 + 03 + 10 + 09 + 00 = 28

Ellerby ..... 2 ___ 02 + 07 + 00 + 05 + 11 = 25

Esposito .... 2 ___ 00 + 05 + 07 + 07 + 05 = 24

Hamill ...... 1 ___ 04 + 00 + 09 + 04 + 03 = 20

Backlund .... 2 ___ 00 + 06 + 00 + 00 + 10 = 16

Mayorov ..... 1 ___ 00 + 08 + 00 + 02 + 04 = 14

McDonagh .... 1 ___ 08 + 00 + 03 + 00 + 01 = 12

Eller ....... 1 ___ 03 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 07 = 10

Shattenkirk . 1 ___ 09 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 09

Gillies ..... 0 ___ 00 + 04 + 00 + 03 + 00 = 07

Sweatt ...... 0 ___ 05 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 05

Petrecki .... 0 ___ 00 + 02 + 01 + 01 + 00 = 04

Perron ...... 0 ___ 00 + 01 + 00 + 00 + 02 = 03

Cole

Katic

MacMillan

The big 3: Kane, Turris & vanReimsdyk

Next best thing: Voracek, Alzner, Cherepanov & Gagner

Could be Good: Couture, Ellerby & Esposito

Afterthoughts: Hamill, Backlund & everyone else

A Rule Of Thumb

When looking at the list I tend to apply an arbitrary rule of thumb: any draftee within 10 points of another draftee is at threat to be picked ahead or behind that draftee. This is to recognize, in part, the modestly random (to me) aspect of what teams prefer in their players. It is also a measure of reasonableness.

Eller has 10 pts - it would not be a big surprise to see him preferred over Backlund by any number of teams. It would also, however, be a surprise to see him picked ahead of Esposito or Couture.

Using that rule of thumb I can expect that:

-- Turris could go #1 and Voracek could overtake vanReimsdyk but not Turris or Kane

-- Cherepanov may overtake Voracek but Gagner will not

-- If anyone ranked below Gagner is chosen in the top-7 it SHOULD be a major surprise

-- If anyone ranked below Backlund is taken in the top-9, the team making that call probably just made a big mistake

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* USAToday only publishes Redline's top-10 so I do not have an official top-15 list. Luckily for me they publish the Redline top-10 every month. The extra 5 players listed have shown up on more recent Redline listings at one point in time or another.

** CSS does not aggregate their European and North American lists. So I did it. Given the weakness of the Old World's offerings this year I started the highest CSS ranked Euro two spots behind and followed on from there.

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Have a great evening everyone. New post tomorrow.

NHL Entry Draft - Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated) - Update

Another update of previous posts - the original post being here:

NHL Entry Draft - Top-15 Player Rankings (aggregated)

The differences are that this post is a shorter read and that the McKeen's and Redline lists have been finalized - the listing below should accurately reflect the final scouting lists (top-15) of the different bureau's.

Also, in a few spots, I shortened the names of several draftees to clean up the chart a bit:

vanReimsdyk = vanReims.
Cherepanov = Cherep.

The Scouts and Who They Recommend
(Final Lists)

... McKeens ..... ISS ......... Redline* .... Hockey News . CSB**

1.. Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Kane ........ Turris
2.. Turris ...... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanRiems. ... Kane
3.. Voracek ..... Turris ...... Turris ...... Turris ..... *Cherep.
4.. Alzner ...... Cherep. ..... vanReims. ... Voracek ..... vanReim.
5.. vanReims. ... Voracek ..... Gagner ...... Cherepanov .. Ellerby
6.. Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Couture ..... Gagner ..... *Backlund
7.. Shattenkirk . Gagner ...... Hamill ...... Couture ..... Alzner
8.. McDonagh .... Mayorov ..... Cherepanov .. Alzner ...... Gagner
9.. Gagner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito .... Esposito ... *Eller
10. Couture ..... Backlund .... Moller ...... Sutter ...... Voracek
11. Sweatt ...... Esposito ... *Alzner ...... Ellerby ..... Esposito
12. Hamill ...... Gillies .... *Cole ........ Hamill ..... *Mayorov
13. Eller ....... Couture .... *McDonagh .... Gillies ..... Hamill
14. Ellerby ..... Petrecki ... *Katic ....... Mayorov ..... Perron
15. MacMillan ... Perron ..... *Petrecki .... Petrecki .... McDonagh

Graded Rankings

Kane ........ 5 _ 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 14 = 74
Turris ...... 5 _ 14 + 13 + 13 + 13 + 15 = 68
vanReimsdyk . 5 _ 11 + 14 + 12 + 14 + 12 = 63
Voracek ..... 4 _ 13 + 11 + 14 + 12 + 06 = 56
Cherepanov .. 4 _ 10 + 12 + 08 + 11 + 12 = 53
Alzner ...... 4 _ 12 + 10 + 05 + 08 + 09 = 44
Gagner ...... 5 _ 07 + 09 + 11 + 10 + 08 = 45
Couture ..... 3 _ 06 + 03 + 10 + 09 + 00 = 28
Ellerby ..... 2 _ 02 + 07 + 00 + 05 + 11 = 25
Esposito .... 2 _ 00 + 05 + 07 + 07 + 05 = 24
Hamill ...... 1 _ 04 + 00 + 09 + 04 + 03 = 20
Backlund .... 2 _ 00 + 06 + 00 + 00 + 10 = 16
Mayorov ..... 1 _ 00 + 08 + 00 + 02 + 04 = 14
McDonagh .... 1 _ 08 + 00 + 03 + 00 + 01 = 12
Eller ....... 1 _ 03 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 07 = 10
Shattenkirk . 1 _ 09 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 09
Gillies ..... 0 _ 00 + 04 + 00 + 03 + 00 = 07
Sweatt ...... 0 _ 05 + 00 + 00 + 00 + 00 = 05
Petrecki .... 0 _ 00 + 02 + 01 + 01 + 00 = 04
Cole
Katic
Perron

Only real changes involved Cherepanov jumping ahead of Alzner (1st tier) and Couture jumping way up (front of the 3rd tier).

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft - Movin' On Up

First of all - kudos to Irish Blues (of HF and Salary Cap fame) as I cribbed the first part of this from one of his HF posts (I added a bit and made a correction or two).

I grabbed it because it interested me (of course) - for all the talk given to teams trading up in the draft it is quite rare for anyone to ever really quantify the league's history of it.

This data-set only:
-- deals with Entry Draft years 2001 through 2006, and
-- only deals with 1st round picks, and
-- does not deal with exclusive 'pick-for-player' trades, and
-- may not be exhaustive

yet is still illuminating for all of that. Enjoy.

The Trades

2001
-- CAL tr p. #11 to PHO for p. #14 & 41
-- BOS tr p. #13 to EDM for p. #19 (per Guerin trade) **
-- PHI tr p. #23 to OTT for p. #27 & 225 plus a 2nd-rnd pick in '02
-- NJD tr p. #24 to FLO for p. #44 & 48 (the STL pick per Steven's tampering case)
-- WAS tr p. #25 plus R. Zednik & J. Bulis to MON for p. #61 plus T. Linden and D. Zubrus **

2002
-- FLO tr p. # 1 to CBJ for p. # 3 plus the right to swap 1st-rnd picks in '03
-- TAM tr p. # 4 to PHI for p. #34 & 52 plus R. Fedotenko
-- CAL tr p. # 9 to FLO for p. #10 & 99
-- DAL tr p. #13 to WAS for p. #26 & 42 plus a 3rd-rnd pick in '03
-- EDM tr p. #14 to MON for p. #15 & 245
-- VAN tr p. #17 plus a 3rd-rnd pick in '03 to WAS for p. #55 plus T. Linden **
-- CBJ tr p. #20 to BUF for p. #30 plus M. Pandolfo
-- CBJ tr p. #30 to ATL for p. #41 & 96

2003
-- FLO tr p. #1 & 73 to PIT for p. #3 & 55 plus M. Samuelsson
-- BOS tr p. #16 to SJS for p. #21, 66 & 103
-- EDM tr p. #17 to NJD for p. #22 & 68
-- TAM tr p. #25 to FLO for p. #34, 41 & 192
-- DAL tr p. #28 to ANA for p. #36 & 54

2004
-- CAL tr p. #19 & 247 to NYR for p. #24 & 46
-- DAL tr p. #20 to NJD for p. #22 & 88
-- DAL tr p. #22 & 153 to SJS for p. #28, 52 & 91

2005
-- ATL tr p. # 8 to SJS for p. #12, 49, & 207
-- ATL tr p. #12 to NYR for p. #16 & 41
-- PHI tr p. #20 to FLO for p. #29 plus a 2nd-rnd pick in '06
-- COL tr p. #27 to WAS for p. #47 & 52

2006
-- MON tr p. #16 to SJS for p. #20 & 53
-- MIN tr p. #17 plus P. O'Sullivan to LAK for P. Demitra **
-- NJD tr p. #25 to STL for p. #30 & 77

A Data Table

Trades marked ** are designated as, primarily, about the player being traded and are not considered as a classic 'move-up-in-the-draft' trade for our purposes. So... NOT including trades marked ** we have:

- 6 years showing
- 21 (24) teams making
- 24 (28) trades involving
- 79 (87) draft picks and
- 3 (10) players

priceless?

TEAM ... # ... YRS .. TUP .. TDN

ANA .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
ATL .... 3 .... 2 .... 1 .... 2
BOS .... 1 .... 1 .... . .... 1
BUF .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
CAL .... 3 .... 3 .... . .... 3
COL .... 1 .... 1 .... . .... 1
CBJ .... 3 .... 1 .... 1 .... 2
DAL .... 4 .... 3 .... . .... 4
EDM .... 2 .... 2 .... . .... 2
FLO .... 6 .... 4 .... 4 .... 2
MON .... 2 .... 2 .... 1 .... 1
NJD .... 4 .... 4 .... 2 .... 2
NYR .... 2 .... 2 .... 2 ....
OTT .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
PHI .... 3 .... 3 .... 1 .... 2
PHO .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
PIT .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
SJS .... 4 .... 4 .... 4 ....
STL .... 1 .... 1 .... 1 ....
TAM .... 2 .... 2 .... . .... 2
WAS .... 2 .... 2 .... 2 ....

Teams that haven't made this kind of trade within the 1st round over the last 6 years include: Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nashville, New York Islanders, Toronto and Vancouver.

Some Basic Analysis

If we take out the 2005 and 2006 years (too early yet), the player based trades and the top-5 pick trades, NHL teams made 15 trades JUST to get the guy they really, really wanted.

Given the performance of the guy they moved up to get, the early winners are:

2001 .. 11 .. PHO .. Sjostrom
2001 .. 23 .. OTT .. Gleason
2001 .. 24 .. FLO .. Krajicek

2002 .. 13 .. WAS .. Semin
2002 .. 14 .. MON .. Higgins
2002 .. 30 .. ATL .. Slater

2003 .. 16 .. SJS .. Bernier
2003 .. 17 .. NJD .. Parise
2003 .. 28 .. ANA .. Perry

2004 .. 20 .. NJD .. Zajac

Roughly 67%, and if Paille (BUF '02 - #20) and Stewart (FLO '03 - #25) make some noise the numbers get better.

Barring the noted deficiencies (below) fortune does seem to favor the 'bold'.

At least the 'bold' with good scouting departments anyways.

No question, if your scouting department is on the ball then trading up can be a very profitable strategy. There may have been a better player chosen later but at the very least the odds of drafting a future roster player go way up.

DEFICIENCY NOTES:
-- some drafts WERE deep in talent so trading up may have been of marginal gain, and
-- there is no analysis done for teams that dropped down and took extra picks, and
-- the data-set is small

Miscellanea

The most active team has been Florida. Florida has traded picks 6 times over 4 different years. In 2002 they traded both directions WITHIN the top-10 picks (down to get Bouwmeester at #3 and then up to get Taticek at #9).

The most hyper-aggressive team has been San Jose. Every year, from 2003 to 2006, they have moved up in the draft to get the player they want (2003: Bernier, 2004: Kaspar, 2005: Setoguchi, 2006: Wishart). Pure confidence right there.

The picks in the top-5 overall, of any given draft year, were traded 5 times (3 if you take away half of the #1 for #3 swaps). The number one pick was ONLY traded when a top-3 pick was coming back the other way - getting a #1 overall is TOUGH.

The award for 'best return on a one-pick drop' goes to Calgary ('02). They traded the #9 pick to Florida for #'s 10 and 99. The award for 'worst return on a one-pick drop' goes to Edmonton the same year. They traded the #14 to Montreal for the #'s 15 and 245.

Those were also, oddly enough, the only one-pick drop trades to occur over the 6 years.

The biggest move belongs to Washington ('05) as they jumped up 20 spots to pick #27. They traded picks #47 and 52 to get there. Of course: that is only considering trades NOT involving players.

Excepting the highest level picks, the value of a roster player appears greater than that of a draft pick.

There were 5 trades where a team picked up 3 draft picks in return for trading down. They were: Edmonton ('01), Dallas ('02), Boston ('03), Tampa Bay ('03) and Atlanta ('05). Hard to say who got the best deal as none of those 3-for-1's look THAT good or THAT bad.

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Have a great evening everyone.

NHL Entry Draft 2007 - More or Less

Oiler Draft Picks available for use or trade:

01 -- __6
01 -- _15
01 -- _30
02 -- _36
03 -- ___ Traded to Minnesota (Roloson)
04 -- _96
05 -- 126
06 -- 156
07 -- ___ Traded to Buffalo (Hejda)

Remember to make adjustments for compensation picks.

Team Order - 1st Round:

01. Chicago ....... via Lottery
02. Philadelphia
03. Phoenix
04. Los Angeles
05. Washington
06. Edmonton
07. Columbus
08. Boston
09. St. Louis
10. Florida
11. Carolina
12. Montreal
13. Toronto
14. Colorado
15. Edmonton ....... via ... NY Islanders
16. Anaheim ........ via ... Tampa Bay
17. NY Rangers
18. Calgary
19. Minnesota
20. Pittsburgh
21. Phoenix ........ via ... Dallas
22. Montreal ....... via ... San Jose
23. Nashville
24. St. Louis ...... via ... Atlanta
25. Vancouver
26. St. Louis ...... via ... New Jersey
27. Detroit
28. Washington ..... via ... Buffalo
29. Ottawa
30. Edmonton ....... via ... Anaheim

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Edited for Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup (given Ottawa just sucked donkey balls in Game 4).

Off to Twillinggate for a wedding. See you in a couple of weeks.

Have a great evening everyone.

And yes - we now have Anaheim's two top picks in 2008. wheeee

NHL Entry Draft - Winning Strategies

The Oilers picks in the first round of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft are at 6, 15 and 29 (probable).

Spilt milk being what it is I still cannot help but note that the last week-end of the season destroyed the team's draft position. Edmonton went from picking 4th to 6th (on their own merits) while the Islanders squeeked in(to the playoffs) and dropped a pick at 12th down to 15th.

Horrible positioning in this draft really. Just outside the sweet spot of each of the main groups of players. The difference is staggering:

-- at 6th, instead of picking out of the blue chip pool of Kane, Turris, vanReimsdyk and Voracek we get to gamble with Cherepanov or pick from the best of the rest in Alzner and Gagner.
-- at 12th, instead of an outside shot at a top-10 talent that drops pending other teams (miss)picks, we are solidly picking from the group considered NOT top-10 talent.

Brutal.

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In terms of making the picks straight up:

I like Gagner at 6th and Lars 'The Great Dane' Eller at 15th (I like the nick-name as much as anything). McDonagh or Cole is also a nice pick at 15. After that I tend not to care too much. This draft WILL have some great/good players come out of it but damned if I know who they are.

Personally, of the favorites, vanReimsdyk scares me the most (Cherepanov being a given). He got a lot of hype from a great 'end-of-season' tournament performance and that sort of thing has always made me wary.

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What to Do?? What to Do??

I believe that making the picks straight up is a huge mistake.

In a draft of few favorites, where no one feels too strongly about anyone the draftees in question, my belief is that a team should go big or go home. Be aggressive and make yourself a winner.

There are only three good strategies in this kind of draft:

-- get more picks, or
-- trade up, or
-- both

I already discussed one (very aggressive) approach to getting more picks here. With more picks your chances of hitting the lottery go up and make no mistake about it - this kind of draft is VERY much a lottery.

Remember: rookies/prospects tend NOT to earn their paycheque until they have a few seasons under their belt - and now they turn UFA at age 27. Just when they are starting to get valuable.

GOOD for the 1st round draft pick that gets full rate while only playing 4th line minutes... BAD for the team that drafted him.

In regards to trading up, well, I believe that Voracek is all that. If Lowe thinks so too then don't be the wallflower - go get him. Every draft, it seems, Lowe is credited with trying to trade up...

Well Quit F*+king Trying.

Coming out of this draft with Alzner, Petrecki and a bunch of daisies is, as good as those draftees are, a miserable result imo. I would rather Lowe trade down and increase his chances to win big.
i.e. use the 6th and ? to get Montreal's 12th and 22nd

Let someone else take the 'safe' pick (Alzner). If Gagner is out of there then so am I. At 12 / 15 / 22 / 29 the chances of getting someone, who might just be an outstanding pro, go up. And that is all I can ask for from a draft like this.

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Have a great evening everyone.