Wednesday, 13 February 2008

Trade Deadline Musing - 2007-08

I will be out of town on the days leading up to, and on, the trade deadline so I figured I would get this post out of the way early. And yes, in case you were wondering, I am no good at finding pictures.

The Easy

Only things I know for sure are these:

-- IF the team is still battling come the 26th and
-- IF Garon is still healthy and
-- IF trading him won't damage the team's chemistry

THEN trading Roli is a must if possible. Also:

-- IF Glencross is still healthy come the 26th

THEN trading Sanderson is a must if possible.

Neither player is bring a lot to the on ice play of the team right now, and neither player has a any upside whatsoever, so trading them for assets is just smart management.


After that it is hard to say what the best strategy to follow is. If we had our 1st round pick this would have been a gimme but that isn't the case so it really becomes a matter of values. As in:

-- What, really, is the value a Staios type brings?
-- What, really, is the value of a guy like Vyborny?

The Purpose Of A Good Dump

Look, the purpose of trading away your expiring contracts, and Cap crippling veterans, at the deadline is so that you can maximize the value (by dropping down the standings) of your own pick, add some lotto tickets on the side and set yourself up for off-season signings of RFA's and UFA's.

Think about it - even IF Staios brought a 1st round pick in return what do you get?

-- a better draft pick on your own merits and
-- a pick in the 24+ range from Dallas (or another top team)
-- a pick in the 14+ range from Vancouver (or another bubble team)

Given that we don't gain on our own merits we are left with, at best, a bubble team pick. Big Freakin' Whoop.

Be serious here, IF the Capitals did want to trade Alzner for Staios then of course, you make the trade. But that isn't the case here. Any trade deadline deals the Oilers do make will most probably involve draft picks

So, for the 'dump' strategy to actually MAKE A DIFFERENCE for the Oilers, given where those picks would be, we would have to bring in a whole whack of lotto picks.

Pretty risky way to make a go of it imo. The only team the Oilers would TANGIBLY benefit would be the Ducks. Excepting some Cap manipulation to keep Pitkanen the only benefits the Oilers receive are all intangible.


Barring either an:

a) upgrade trade (Grebs and a 3rd next year for ?), or
b) a bet on stupid (Tampa's 1st for Staios - heehee)

I am left with one suggestion only - make a trade for someone who might come cheap. Say, even, a guy like Vyborny. With guys like Fedorov, Hossa, Campbell, etc out there a guy like Vyborny could come quite cheap. Throw Howson a hypothetical of McDonald and next year's 4th and see if he bites.

What can it hurt to try?

Finishing the year higher in the standings only, TANGIBLY, hurts Anaheim - since the Tom Gilberts of the world are few and far between it really does nothing to hurt the Oilers - the possible losses are thus INTANGIBLE.

I would advise that the Oilers sift through the rubble of the Toronto's of the world and go through the bargain bins making offers as they go. Vyborny, Fedotenko, MODRY, essentially anyone who won't cost a bundle to pick up but will help the team.

This isn't about hurting Anaheim - it's about realizing that there could be little harm, to the Oilers, in doing so.

Myself, I like Modry and Hunter. Let someone else target Blake and Boyle, from the defenseman pile Modry is where it is at. Hunter WOULD be more costly but I like the guy and getting exclusive bargaining rights until July is worth something I figure.


Have a great evening everyone.

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